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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#121
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, revisions are very normal, because the more reliable data (tax filings, for example) comes in later. https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573

Are they ever revised higher? I'll wait...

No wait required; click the link I gave and you'll see the answer is "yes, definitely". Anything over the zero mark on the Y axis is an upwards revision.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#122
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)

Europe is also excellent in my experience, specifically Portugal and Spain. My health insurance cost for a family of four in Spain is ~$2k/year as someone on a visa. In the US on an employer plan, it was ~$20k/year (premiums, copays, etc).

Yes and for something rare or complex, you can always fall back on the public health insurance.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#123
post #62

What is also interesting is that the only sector thad added jobs was health care.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect Any sector that's resistant to productivity growth is liable to become bigger and bigger part of the economy.

I've seen on youtube how people said a major reason housing is a big employer and housing has not fallen in price is due to their industry's attitude and resistance to introducing technological advancements.

in fairness also regulation makes it hard when it specificies the solutions not the parameters (just to illustrate the idea not an actual rule: you must have X thickness of PVC versus your pipe must withstand X pressure)

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#125
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So perhaps we'll never get to a better healthcare+insurance market (nee "Free") through government, but eventually we will just all work in healthcare, and barter our nursing and dental skills in secret away from the insurance coders.

You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)

Singapore is the beneficiary of a neighboring impoverished itinerant workforce to supplement its own collapsing demographics with artificially cheap services. It’s hardly replicable most places.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just boomers (though they are the biggest part of it). Americans of all ages are spending more on healthcare, and seeking more healthcare interventions than in previous decades.

I'm sure ADHD medications / antidepressants / GLP-1s are huge drivers.

It's my hypothesis that boomers passing away + GLPs largely ending obesity will result in a sharp drop in total healthcare spending in the next decade or two

My main caveat / counter point is that preventative care may actually increase as more and more people jump on the live for ever, dont die, longevity hacking trend.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them. The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.

> The numbers are as good as they can get That doesn't mean they don't warrant error bars. Error bars aren't there to show that you didn't do a good job collecting the data, they're there to show your level of uncertainty.

I would say the initial numbers should be embargoed until the number is reliable. People don’t understand error bars and reporting can more easily manipulate the current situation without outright lying.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#128

These jobs lost/gained and unemployment statistics, especially on a monthly basis, and when the numbers are so small, are just noise. Seasonal adjustments alone (baseline assumptions on how many people should be employed) make them meaningless, as does the government definition of being unemployed or looking for work. As far as the government is concerned if you have been looking for a job for so long and/or are so d…

So you are saying it's even worse than the numbers reported.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#129
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t surprising. The population overall is aging. Millenials are now the largest cohort and are approaching middle age. Until recently we’ve seen the number of insured individuals rise consistently and our medicine continues to advance. More older adults have access and need more healthcare

No, I mean on an age-corrected basis, throughout the spectrum of ages. i.e. young americans are spending more on health care than young americans used to, even if it's also true that there are fewer young americans now, and more old americans.

There is a lot more to spend it on. I'm gen-X, ADHD wasn't even heard of by most people until I was in college, and then it was only diagnosed/treated in the worst cases. Today most kids I know are on some medication for ADHD. A few years ago a friend of mine was told "too bad you are not 25 - I know what treatment you need but we can't give it to someone over 25" - he went to the Mayo clinic for his condition at 23 but the treatment didn't even exist yet so it was a waste of time.

In 1860 someone who went to a doctor would have worse outcomes than someone who stayed home. As medicine gets better over time there is more and more value in seeing a doctor. In turn more an more people are talking to their doctor about things that they would have just ignored a few generations ago. Sometimes this results in unnecessary treatment, but it also results in catching and fixing a lot of real problems that would have made life worse before we could treat it.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe is also excellent in my experience, specifically Portugal and Spain. My health insurance cost for a family of four in Spain is ~$2k/year as someone on a visa. In the US on an employer plan, it was ~$20k/year (premiums, copays, etc).

Yes and for something rare or complex, you can always fall back on the public health insurance.

I appreciate the collectivism and it is a component of why I am happy to pay Europe any of the taxes they ask for.
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