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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

nbcnews.com

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#11

Post by ceejayoz »

bix6 wrote: post #9
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

Note, also: > In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

These guys are just nonstop liars. Print the headline, revise when no one is looking.

To be fair, revisions are very normal, because the more reliable data (tax filings, for example) comes in later.

https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#12

Post by eth0up »

recsv-heredoc wrote: post #3

"sudden"

My thought exactly.

I began rapidly recalling the hundreds of sources foreseeing this well in advance, citing it, raising alarm, and being ignored.

I guess we are supposed to take numbers at face value, disregard what generated them and why, accept what they imply as presented, and never question it.

Then we must patiently withhold intelligence, wait for sanctioned admission, then finally consider what we already knew.

Suddenly, Rome collapsed.

Edit: Don't take the flagging to heart. If you dig, you will find a thousand exceptions made where the single-word comment fit the narrative and endured. This comment will be flagged too.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#13

Post by pm90 »

bix6 wrote: post #9
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

Note, also: > In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

These guys are just nonstop liars. Print the headline, revise when no one is looking.

This is how bls data has always worked. And the reason is that they don’t always have the full picture every month and need to account for new data in the stats.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#14

Post by vuggamie »

bix6 wrote: post #9
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

Note, also: > In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

These guys are just nonstop liars. Print the headline, revise when no one is looking.

If you can do economics without revision, that is, find the real number of jobs lost or gained or workplace participation in real time, you could make a lot of money. Probably win some prizes, too.

Economics is an imperfect science.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#15

Post by smallmancontrov »

bix6 wrote: post #9
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

Note, also: > In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

These guys are just nonstop liars. Print the headline, revise when no one is looking.

The jobs numbers are notoriously laggy. On the way up, lag means constant upwards revisions. On the way down, lag means constant downwards revisions.

ADP Payrolls are a lower latency indicator but not quite as broad.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#16

Post by travisgriggs »

pm90 wrote: post #13
bix6 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These guys are just nonstop liars. Print the headline, revise when no one is looking.

This is how bls data has always worked. And the reason is that they don’t always have the full picture every month and need to account for new data in the stats.

Honest ask because I’ve not generally paid attention…

Is it the case that the numbers always appear more optimistic, and then are revised to be more pessimistic values? Or is it just that the original numbers are off and are revised? Does that make sense?

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#18

Post by ceejayoz »

travisgriggs wrote: post #16
pm90 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is how bls data has always worked. And the reason is that they don’t always have the full picture every month and need to account for new data in the stats.

Honest ask because I’ve not generally paid attention… Is it the case that the numbers always appear more optimistic, and then are revised to be more pessimistic values? Or is it just that the original numbers are off and are revised? Does that make sense?

They move in both directions regularly, typically in the direction the economic situation is moving at the time.

Chart: https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#19

Post by jcranmer »

ceejayoz wrote: post #5

Note, also: > In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

One of the reaction threads I saw elsewhere on social media pointed out the response rates for the surveys that come up with these numbers is plummeting--about a decade ago, we had ~85% response rate, now we're done to ~65% response rate. So the initial quality of these numbers is probably getting a lot worse.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#20

Post by stego-tech »

Vertical Thinkers: “Who could’ve seen this coming when all the data looks good?!”

Lateral Thinkers: quietly sipping tea, nursing our wounds from layoffs, lamenting another unheard Cassandra moment.

Basically sums up the mood, I find. Don’t worry, we’re always steeping a fresh pot for the new club members when stories like these hit the wire.

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