And, as a result, the market is ... up?
Bad news is good news, leading to possibly fewer rate hikes
There is no good news. This is stagflation. Worst case scenario.
U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
111–120 of 377 posts
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#112Who actually believes these numbers?
weird dejavu because this exact comment was on the last one of these job lost updates i saw
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
These guys are just nonstop liars. Print the headline, revise when no one is looking.
To be fair, revisions are very normal, because the more reliable data (tax filings, for example) comes in later. https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573
Are they ever revised higher? I'll wait...
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#114As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them.
The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#115As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them. The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.
> The numbers are as good as they can get
That doesn't mean they don't warrant error bars.
Error bars aren't there to show that you didn't do a good job collecting the data, they're there to show your level of uncertainty.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
This isn’t surprising. The population overall is aging. Millenials are now the largest cohort and are approaching middle age. Until recently we’ve seen the number of insured individuals rise consistently and our medicine continues to advance. More older adults have access and need more healthcare
No, I mean on an age-corrected basis, throughout the spectrum of ages. i.e. young americans are spending more on health care than young americans used to, even if it's also true that there are fewer young americans now, and more old americans.
Part of the Obamacare mandate was forcing young men into health insurance policies when in the past they had a much higher opt out percentage.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
Europe is also excellent in my experience, specifically Portugal and Spain. My health insurance cost for a family of four in Spain is ~$2k/year as someone on a visa. In the US on an employer plan, it was ~$20k/year (premiums, copays, etc).
I think the commenter you responded to filtered first for countries with outcomes better or exceeding the US? Though I’m not sure Portugal and Spain automatically fall into that category
I can only n=1, but most, if not all, experiences we've had obtaining medical care were better in Europe. Care specialist for my autistic kids, primary care, etc. From my unofficial surveys, many folks I know in the US are having a hard time finding various care providers, even if they have insurance. More data on this is always welcome.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
So perhaps we'll never get to a better healthcare+insurance market (nee "Free") through government, but eventually we will just all work in healthcare, and barter our nursing and dental skills in secret away from the insurance coders.
You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)
Singapore numbers ignore their underclass, which is significant. But you're right, if you're a westerner, Singapore's great.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#119As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
As a physicist, I always shed a tear when looking at data without error bars.
As a data scientist/generic programmer now, I don't really see them anywhere. I remember a colleague during my postdoc saying 'don't worry, no error bars in industry' when I asked about regression with ML lol
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
No one with at least two brain cells to rub together thought the tariffs was going to make anything better.
I suspect that even his proponents knew better, they just didn't care as much about the economy as they did culture wars nonsense and religious woo-woo.
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