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Discovery Loop

discoveryloop.com

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Re: Discovery Loop

#591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do hammers put up with being smashed into nails all day?

because once you're a hammer, you're just biding your time to smash a skull.

"If I had a Hammer,"

"I'd hit somebody in the head."

"All over this Land!"

It does have a ring to it and would probably make it up the pop charts as a 21st century version more than ever ;)

Re: Discovery Loop

#592
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think you'd be given access and permission to do this? If a company genuinely cracks this human free system problem, why would they open it up, instead of simply outcompeting everyone that doesn't have their product?

Is science hard to distil?

You should see some of the apparatus . . .

Re: Discovery Loop

#593
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why shouldn't they? Also, wouldn't anyone with half a brain use the human-free system to produce another human-free system that was no longer controlled by the "small number of 'people'"?

My best research is one that is seeking funding but none is forthing and by sheer guts and whatnot makes a breakthrough that basically funds itself. No investors. No funders. Definitely not public.

What about not even seeking funding because it's not worth Other Peoples' Money and the headaches that come with it? For one thing you can make money on every single little milestone when you don't owe anybody anything, without having to rely only on less-common major breakthroughs beyond the threshold which overcomes the debt and/or growth obligation.

Which could be pretty hard to find and not everybody wants to wait.

Sooner or later somebody's going to say "Hold my beer," anyway ;)

>Definitely not public.

Seriously worth considering keeping a low profile, almost all other scientists can only enjoy respected institutional status by diverting huge amounts of their effort merely to gain or maintain certified eminence. This really limits the potential accomplishments of world-class minds if their talents really are tops in the very front-line frontier of discovery.

Re: Discovery Loop

#594
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make many bold promises, but their core goal is neatly encapsulated on the website: "Imagine a future where a handful of people can conduct scientific research and engineering tasks much more rapidly, and with higher quality, than massive teams of scientists and engineers do today." This is the same goal as every other AI company out there. Automate away the human employees and let a small number of "people" (no…

I don’t understand why all of these companies need to frame it like this. Why not a large amount of people doing an even larger amount of science?

I think these four people want to be in a smaller organization. It's more fun.

Re: Discovery Loop

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Grad students are already essentially working for free.

But they require large support systems (typically rich parents) to work for "free". Scholarships mean they're not free.

This is indeed how it works in some countries, but depending on how strong a nations social net that isn't necessarily true.

Re: Discovery Loop

#596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Similarily, everyone becoming their own accountant / lawyer / other professional services. These professional services will defend themselves with gatekeeping. Suddenly it doesn't depend anymore on the quality of your legal advice, but whether it has been stamped by a qualified Lawyer. It doesn't matter that your taxes are correct, but whether they are submitted by an approved accountant. Etc.

It's not just gatekeeping though. The reason you get a qualified, credentialed structural engineer to sign off on your house instead of just YOLOing the build is so that you (and your insurance company) can sue their pants off if it collapses.

If a future version of Claude ever gets less error prone than a human, I might prefer the smaller chance of a building collapse from Claude than the larger but insured chance from a human engineer.

Re: Discovery Loop

#597
post #337
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes It is. Even including batteries: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lcoe-and-valu...

"Solar PV with storage = solar PV installation paired with four-hour duration battery storage, scaled to 20% of the output capacity of the solar PV." Sometime the sun goes away for more than 4hrs. That may be OK for closed-ended systems (turn off the science at night and during storms), but not for open-ended systems with diverse user demand. 4hour batteries are competitive with gas peakers to match high demand durin…

> Sometime the sun goes away for more than 4hrs.

everywhere? all at once? The grid is distributed, this is a solved problem. Most of what is needed now is to build the systems, storage, and transmission lines.

Re: Discovery Loop

#598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of hiring grad students isn’t to advance science, it’s to train experts.

Perhaps this is the fundamental problem that can be solved with AI. As a non-scientist, I'd very much prefer to have massive amounts of scientific breakthroughs instead of massive amounts of well-trained experts.

This is a misunderstanding of how scientific research works, why it is done and how it is done. Reducing the number of people who can do science will not pay off in the long run.

Re: Discovery Loop

#599

From Jeff's twitter post: > Our general approach is to automate the experimental loop. We think this approach is broadly applicable across many different fields of science and engineering. We’ll initially focus on ML research and engineering, but believe the approach can help with important subproblems in nearly every one of the fourteen NAE Grand Challenge problems. We think doing this well requires strong expertise…

I think this should and can be done openly: https://opendl.ai

1. Make Solar Energy Economical — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/194

2. Provide Energy from Fusion — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/206

3. Develop Carbon Sequestration Methods — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/196

4. Manage the Nitrogen Cycle — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/197

5. Provide Access to Clean Water — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/195

6. Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/193

7. Advance Health Informatics — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/203

8. Engineer Better Medicines — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/200

9. Reverse Engineer the Brain — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/205 10. Prevent Nuclear Terror — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/204

11. Secure Cyberspace — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/201

12. Enhance Virtual Reality — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/202

13. Advance Personalized Learning — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/199

14. Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery — https://github.com/orgs/HardisonCo/projects/198

Specs and the per-challenge process lists: https://github.com/HardisonCo/opendl

It should also be funded by the Gov. IMO and 100% for oublic benifit e.g.: nsf.dev

Re: Discovery Loop

#600
post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless it's on a specific list of chemicals that the DEA has decided are bad and need to be monitored. Even toluene is on the list!

This is nonsense. "Monitored" is not the same as "unavailable", any chemistry lab worth its name has the means and procedures to acquire toluene in pretty much any quantity it wants. As long as you have the required licenses, keep careful administration and can produce said administration during inspections, there is nothing to worry about.

Does all that administration and licensing magically happen for free and take zero time? It's stupid extra overhead for something as fundamental as toluene that Chinese labs don't have to follow. You're right that it's not insurmountable, but it's still stupid extra work, and the threat of randomly being investigated for doing science is hardly "nothing too worry about". Just always have every one of your papers in order or else you go to jail is hardly a way to encourage people to want to go into science.
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