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Discovery Loop

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Re: Discovery Loop

#451
post #306

I think people are missing what this really is: Google giving some of its most senior engineers the best retirement home to keep them away from competitors. This isn’t in jest; I wish i could make enough money to not care for more from my job and then do research after i get old. Its honestly a brilliant move.

The risk is they are a magnet for many more talented ML scientists to leave google.

Re: Discovery Loop

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why all of these companies need to frame it like this. Why not a large amount of people doing an even larger amount of science?

Isn't that directionally what OpenAI's core message was for a while? A large amount of people building their own customized apps for themselves. Similarily, everyone becoming their own accountant / lawyer / other professional services.

> Similarily, everyone becoming their own accountant / lawyer / other professional services.

These professional services will defend themselves with gatekeeping. Suddenly it doesn't depend anymore on the quality of your legal advice, but whether it has been stamped by a qualified Lawyer. It doesn't matter that your taxes are correct, but whether they are submitted by an approved accountant. Etc.

Re: Discovery Loop

#453
Either these guys are going to try and build LLM swarms and agent loops....

Or they're going to try to build much bigger LLM's which are smarter.

The former isn't very defensible, won't work super well due to current models not discovering very many things per billion tokens.

The latter turns them into any-old AI company.

I don't normally bet against Jeff Dean, but in this case I'm not so sure.

Re: Discovery Loop

#454
In many domains, scientific research is physical. Are they going to deprecate labs and sort of scale that out into a pure compute problem?

They are occupying a term in their headline messaging that is much broader than they can actually cover.

A common pattern these days. Overclaim, attract attention, iterate.

Re: Discovery Loop

#455
post #454

In many domains, scientific research is physical. Are they going to deprecate labs and sort of scale that out into a pure compute problem? They are occupying a term in their headline messaging that is much broader than they can actually cover. A common pattern these days. Overclaim, attract attention, iterate.

You can create a research twin that can predict but as you say, it only works once you have a lot of data. Both the data relevant to the experiment it came from (which is rarely published) and the complete failure data (which is almost never published in any form).

Re: Discovery Loop

#456

From Jeff's twitter post: > Our general approach is to automate the experimental loop. We think this approach is broadly applicable across many different fields of science and engineering. We’ll initially focus on ML research and engineering, but believe the approach can help with important subproblems in nearly every one of the fourteen NAE Grand Challenge problems. We think doing this well requires strong expertise…

1. Make Solar Energy Economical - Disallow fossil fuels

2. Provide Energy from Fusion - See 1

3. Develop Carbon Sequestration Methods See 1

4. Manage the Nitrogen Cycle - See 1

5. Provide Access to Clean Water - See 1

6. Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure - See 1

7. Advance Health Informatics - See 1

8. Engineer Better Medicines - See 1

9. Reverse Engineer the Brain - See 1

10. Prevent Nuclear Terror - See 1

11. Secure Cyberspace - See 1

12. Enhance Virtual Reality - See 1

13. Advance Personalized Learning - See 1

14. Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery - See 1

FF is the real threat in time, money, health. Can't sweep aside that it will destroy most life on Earth and we'll never get to the other things if we are at the mercy of FF

Re: Discovery Loop

#457
post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Provide Access to Clean Water ??? We don't need any AI for this. Start with separated sewage/wastewater and stormwater drains. Then accredited and highly scrutinised wastewater treatment and discharge into water bodies (or see below for a high-tech solution). As for clean water to the home, direct those stormwater drains to new reservoirs which sustain freshwater aquatic life. Protect aquifers from over-drainage, a…

> Good sanitation is a financial and political problem. The engineering has been solved for decades now. This was true of computers, phones, books, washing machines, refrigerators, A/C...most technologies. Turns out that doing the addition engineering to figure out how to do these things cheaply makes the political and financial problems way easier .

Suburban sprawl needs to go as it is a complete waste of infrastructure

Re: Discovery Loop

#458

From Jeff's twitter post: > Our general approach is to automate the experimental loop. We think this approach is broadly applicable across many different fields of science and engineering. We’ll initially focus on ML research and engineering, but believe the approach can help with important subproblems in nearly every one of the fourteen NAE Grand Challenge problems. We think doing this well requires strong expertise…

dillusional millionaires

Re: Discovery Loop

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A public benefit corp shouldn’t be a start up. The primary goal of a start up is to grow as quickly as possible which is rarely benefits the public. Very silly to call every non start up a lifestyle business. It’s just a business. Start up are the weird thing that almost always an obscene waste of time and money, but sometime creates google.

A PBC is not a charity or a non-profit. PBCs are for-profit businesses with the goal of making money. In day-to-day business they're indistinguishable with other for-profit corporations, including fundraising and investment. The only real practical difference is that they give directors a little more leeway in their fiduciary duties to say "no" to doing evil things. The advantage to a PBC is protecting founders from…

> a serious problem with standard corporations... immoral activities for profit

A politician could trivially write a law to end this "problem", at any point. Or courts could start rejecting suits where investors sue. There is nothing inherent in nature that requires this outcome to exist.

This is an entirely self-made problem that society tolerates when it doesn't have to. Corporations used to need a blessing from the government to be formed, explicitly to avoid the risk of a massive corporation who can compete with the government and have investors that push anti-social goals.

Re: Discovery Loop

#460
post #152

From Jeff's twitter post: > Our general approach is to automate the experimental loop. We think this approach is broadly applicable across many different fields of science and engineering. We’ll initially focus on ML research and engineering, but believe the approach can help with important subproblems in nearly every one of the fourteen NAE Grand Challenge problems. We think doing this well requires strong expertise…

> 9. Reverse Engineer the Brain For what purpose? To replace humans? To make social media more addictive? To master brain manipulation?

See https://qntm.org/mmacevedo and despair
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