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Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

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Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#841

Post by magimas »

podocarp wrote: post #724
danans wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no expert, but I heard an AGI researcher explain that if they could figure out how to create an AI with the intelligence of a squirrel, they would be closer to AGI than LLMs based AIs are. That's to say nothing of doing it within the energy budget of a squirrel.

We can't even simulate a fruit fly even though it's neurons have all been mapped out. There was also a distributed computing project to simulate some nematode, which I can't remember.

openworm: https://github.com/openworm/OpenWorm

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#842

Post by WarmWash »

galangalalgol wrote: post #795
zarzavat wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of that is true, Google should be winning. We underestimated Google's determination to fail.

Is Gemini really that bad? I mean, I would always prefer anthropic for agentic coding, and apparently openai has the math thing cornered, but if I'm using ai like a search engine gemini does that just fine. That may be all they were actually aiming for whatever else they say.

It's vision capabilities are still top notch, and it seems pretty natural that most everyday human users are going to want strong vision over strong language/coding.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#843

Post by WarmWash »

ghtbircshotbe wrote: post #822
zarzavat wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of that is true, Google should be winning. We underestimated Google's determination to fail.

I feel like the majority of ai use by normal people is through Google search, so that's kind of a win. I'm confused by meta's capex though. Are they planning on becoming a cloud provider, or just throwing money away like with the metaverse?

In an interview, Zuck said that the cost of not having super intelligent AI is far more than the cost of trying to develop it.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#844

Post by xdavidliu »

adolph wrote: post #2

"Dean and Google senior fellow Sanjay Ghemawat are starting Discovery Loop, an independent publicity benefit corporation in which Google will be an investor and cloud provider.: Kinsley Gaffe: A mistake whereby a politician inadvertently says something truthful which they had not meant to reveal. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Kinsley_gaffe

the typo was the Axios article, not from Google's own announcement

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#845

Post by solenoid0937 »

ethbr1 wrote: post #765
solenoid0937 wrote: post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think death, and most extreme pain/suffering should be optional. Superintelligence, if done safely, lets us solve most of our problems.

If humans could politically-economically deploy superintelligence safely, then we'd already have less extreme pain/suffering. Unless there are countervailing forces, it will be deployed, capital will hoard the benefits, and everyone else will be told to fuck off. I don't have faith in any of the AI labs to make hard financial decisions to deploy hypothetical future AGI in a way that's good for humanity as a whole. Th…

Capital hoards benefits because resource scarcity and cost of production are a thing

Post scarcity societies would likely have entirely different dynamics

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#846

Post by solenoid0937 »

sheeshkebab wrote: post #807
solenoid0937 wrote: post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think death, and most extreme pain/suffering should be optional. Superintelligence, if done safely, lets us solve most of our problems.

What? psychologists are for that (or drugs and alcohol).

Neat. I didn't know psychologists could cure terminal cancer!

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#847

Post by WarmWash »

michaelt wrote: post #750
WarmWash wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's capex is to capture the compute purchases from the other labs. The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low...and hence researchers leaving for better watered pastures.

> The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low IDK, haven't Google been putting Gemini front and centre in pretty much all of their products? I'm seeing Gemini on my slide decks, Gemini on my e-mails, Gemini on my searches, Gemini on my videoconferences, Gemini on my database query console. My impression was they were doing a Google Plus style attempt to marshal all the company's efforts behind o…

Their capex is primarily in building DCs (and what goes into them), which they fully intend to monetize in order to capture that $500B backlog. In that context, the amount of new capacity that will be given to Deepmind could be surprisingly small, since the ROI of selling pickaxes rather than mining gold is so much better right now.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#848

Post by chaostheory »

hintymad wrote: post #514
GodelNumbering wrote: post #199

So, in last several months, all the prominent names Google lost: Demis Hassabis (technically still with google but these things are usually presented with a spin), Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, Oriol Vinyals, Quoc Le, Noam Shazeer, John Jumper, Jonas Adler, Alexander Pritzel, David Silver, Denny Zhou, Fernando Pereira, Alex Turner And all the prominent names Google gained: NULL Combined with no gemini frontier GA relea…

This funny post reads surreal, but it may carry some truth: https://x.com/signulll/status/2067446889956430273?lang=en

Mike Judge needs to do another Silicon Valley series on HBO

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#849

Post by EthanHeilman »

htrp wrote: post #409
EthanHeilman wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gemini seems like a better search engine than the alternatives because it has access to Google's massive crawler feeds. I think Google could charge 30 dollars month for Gemini + all the data Google has locked up (Scholar, Books, crawled webpages, Google Groups, Usenet archives + search of your personalized datasets such as calendars, photos, emails, docs, slides, etc...). I'd pay that easily.

Legal will have a shit fit at all of the things that you just mentioned.

And that might be why Google loses, they are competing with companies that are willing to operate outside the law (or at least pay Trump to have the DoJ look the other way).

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#850

Post by EthanHeilman »

anonreplier wrote: post #385
EthanHeilman wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic has no moat, their models just get distilled and resold. They can maybe get good margins when LLM improvement rate is very high but as it slows down they are looking at commodity margins. Google has the products that makes that commodity more than just cost of electricity + 0.5%. My case is based on the assumption that Anthropic will not hit RSI or if it does RSI rapidly hits a wall. Faster your growth curv…

Why would Google be the only interested buying party?

They wouldn't be the only party, but they are in my opinion the most likely party.

What the people that can monetize it? Microsoft, X, IBM, Salesforce, Discord, Google

Microsoft would likely buy OpenAI due to their investment and integration with OpenAI. Making Anthropic not that valuable.

Google would likely buy Anthropic due to their investment and ties to Anthropic.

X, Salesforce maybe. Not sure Discord has the money. No idea if IBM capable of growing.

All this changes if Anthropic figures out a moat/sticky product that doesn't just depend on having the best LLM. If they pull off https://claude.com/solutions/healthcare then all bets are off.

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