381–390 of 989 posts
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For at least a year now the standard reflexive reply to “Google seems way behind OAI and Anthropic” has been “it’ll be ok, they’ve got Dean and Hassabis.” And now they don’t. What reason is there to be bullish about Google now?
Data centers, TPUs, customers, data streams, more money than god, most mature crawler system
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It's quite interesting that those events are happening at the same moment. I wonder whether they are related
Some do-nothing EVP probably just got control over the Gemini org
Big shake up for Gemini it seems.
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They are leaving Google, but Google is an investor in the new company. So a split, but not exactly a divorce. Or something.
A "Maria's not an asset to the abbey" situation for you Sound of Music enjoyers.
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> If anthropic wins, Google copies their approach, buys anthropic for cheap or both Google buys Anthropic for cheap? How?
Anthropic has no moat, their models just get distilled and resold. They can maybe get good margins when LLM improvement rate is very high but as it slows down they are looking at commodity margins. Google has the products that makes that commodity more than just cost of electricity + 0.5%. My case is based on the assumption that Anthropic will not hit RSI or if it does RSI rapidly hits a wall. Faster your growth curv…
This seems bad for AI safety/risk. Does DeepMind have any checks on model alignment now? What's stopping them from using AI for military/surveillance purposes?
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Is it _that_ Jeff Dean? https://github.com/LRitzdorf/TheJeffDeanFacts
> When Jeff Dean goes on vacation, production services across Google mysteriously stop working within a few days. This is actually true. (TRUE) Uh oh...
I've noticed that Gemini has been timing out yesterday & today !
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The answer is far more benign. They getting a higher ROI renting their TPUs to Anthropic et al instead of performing training and serving their own models. Google cloud has insane backlog, and has rapidly expanded to satisfy it. While those DCs get built, they’re cannibalizing their own products for it. This makes sense because (1) they are investors in Anthropic, so they still win and (2) they can always catch up on…
I don’t think so. If Kimi and Deepseek can launch models better than Gemini with much much lesser resources then it is increasingly looking like an organization issue at Google
The Gemini 3.5 Pro delay has been catastrophic for Google. I'm really curious what has gone on behind the scenes there. But missing out right as AI coding agents become genuinely deeply capable and useful is just an immense failure.
I think there's one weirdly simple reason DeepMind isn't doing as well as OpenAI and Anthropic. I may be wrong on this. OpenAI and Anthropic went from tiny startups to huge companies. As a consequence the stock options/RSU's offered to the employees paid off a far higher percentage ROI than any stock options a DeepMind (and thus Google) employee would get (since Google is already huge). This disincentivizes people wh…
That was true early but OpenAI/Anthropic have done a ton of hiring over the past couple years at already-huge valuations, as much on the strength of big current base salary + equity, not just future increase speculation.
No one joins OpenAI/Anthropic unless they think these companies will reach superintelligence.
So most people joining believe their equity will 10-100x even from where it is today.
(Coincidentally, the talent that believes we will reach AGI overlaps a lot with the best talent, which has a magnetic effect.)