Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their stock price won’t matter once OpenAI launches the paperclippers.
Not sure what you mean
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Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
721–730 of 988 posts
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#722Earlier quoted context omitted.
"No, no, no" a person on Reddit, Hacker News, YouTube screams for the billionth time. "It's all marketing" as the terminator bots kick in the door and slaughter their families.
Cute story. How could they stop this timeline, even if they were true believers?
At least join PauseAI or similar. Or give money to them. Write to politicians. Read Plan A and tell people about it.
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#723So, in last several months, all the prominent names Google lost: Demis Hassabis (technically still with google but these things are usually presented with a spin), Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, Oriol Vinyals, Quoc Le, Noam Shazeer, John Jumper, Jonas Adler, Alexander Pritzel, David Silver, Denny Zhou, Fernando Pereira, Alex Turner And all the prominent names Google gained: NULL Combined with no gemini frontier GA relea…
Gemini has been improving by what feels like 1% every week
68% per year is pretty good!
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#724Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'm a researcher in the field and I definitely take AGI seriously > I just think LLMs are a dead end for AGI. I have no background in CS, so apologies if this is a naive question, but what makes you take AGI seriously, but also say that LLMs are a dead end? i.e., is there something else that you think is not a dead end?
I'm no expert, but I heard an AGI researcher explain that if they could figure out how to create an AI with the intelligence of a squirrel, they would be closer to AGI than LLMs based AIs are. That's to say nothing of doing it within the energy budget of a squirrel.
We can't even simulate a fruit fly even though it's neurons have all been mapped out. There was also a distributed computing project to simulate some nematode, which I can't remember.
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#725Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Google will be considered "the new IBM" in 20 years. They have plenty of great tech for consumers right now: Gmail, Maps, YouTube, Chrome, Android,.. You can perhaps argue that search might suffer because of AI but they've done a great job scaling horizontally into many verticals. I don't think Google is going anywhere.
Once upon a time it would've been unthinkable for Google search to become awful and nearly worthless due, in large part, by Google's discretionary choices. Related - interns these days don't seem to have any particular preference for using Google for finding information...
Google search is bad because there aren't any websites anymore. It's not really possible for it to be good.
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#726Lots of talk of us being at the cusp of AGI, but how will we even know when we get there? When AGI develops a religion for itself?
We'll know that we've reached AGI when a key conservative political belief in the US is that AIs are not people and do not deserve rights. We'll know that we've reached the singularity when there's a mysterious and superintelligent AI entity with technology and motivations that we as humanity do not understand and have no control over. Not sure why we want that, exactly, but that'll be the big sign.
Humans are really terrible at most things, being moral being exhibit A.
I want a singularity yesterday, and I would even go as far as to claim that all people have an ethical obligation to build super intelligent AI systems as fast as possible to reduce the maximum amount of suffering through the universe possible in living things.
The moment that we can get viable non-human leadership I will embrace it with open arms. The yoke of human existence is extraordinarily oppressive. Give me Ghost in the Shell style cyberborgs. We are the demiurge.
Of course, the real red pill is to realize that there's many singularities. Can't believe I'm going to link Orions Arm on HN but its relevant here: https://www.orionsarm.com/page/298
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#727Here's my bet: Demis will be gone within 6 months. A year at most.
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#728Earlier quoted context omitted.
And Tensorflow?
That was supposedly 17 years ago, so I was counting it in the good old. It was cutting-edge at the time, then years later PyTorch ate its lunch, which they eventually admitted with TF 2.0.
Jokes aside, I think a lot of the famous Google internals that became public (Tensorflow, Kubernetes, Bazel, Angular), although I heard everyone say they worked so much better inside Google than outside it, had issues. And the Facebook-supported rivals were often just so much more pleasant to work with that you couldn't ignore it. For all else that was bad about Facebook, for a few years they were pretty good at denying Google technical hegemony.
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#729Earlier quoted context omitted.
Looked up LessWrong. Eh, philosophy people, also known for that "Roko's basilisk" meme. I'm gonna pass.
It's a rationalist community, IMHO their methodology of thought leads to much more well-reasoned takes on AI than on HN, where the discussion here is often very emotionally charged or led by wishful thinking. When it comes to AI, LessWrong has been discussing topics for years, that HN has just started to consider, so they are much further along in the philosophical "chain of thought" so to say. LW fully understood an…
Sounds like you've interpreted the "stochastic parrot" metaphor dismissively, and/or that it somehow precludes potential LLM risks.
Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
#730Earlier quoted context omitted.
Genuine question: can I ask why? I'm not saying you're wrong, but it seems early to say yes or no about a particular technology, and LLMs seem especially hard to dismiss given how magical / magic-adjacent they feel :) I'd be curious to hear more, if you don't mind sharing.
For me it’s the massive amount of resources it takes to produce and run one. As the story goes, skynet infects everyone’s computer and runs itself locally on it. Whereas it’s looking like it’s not even possible for an AGI to escape from one lab to another, let alone cause real world damage. AGI’s definition is different for everyone. Some already believe it’s here. I’m partly in that camp. LLMs are intelligent and ge…
> I’m partly in that camp. LLMs are intelligent and general, which are the two conditions of AGI. Others believe that we’re building a god in a box, and that it’ll doom all of humanity. It’s hard to take a field seriously when the basic definitions are so far apart.
To believe one but not the other, you must hold the belief that LLMs will soon plateau. Why do you believe this?