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AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

fortune.com

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Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#51

Post by rybosworld »

kube-system wrote: post #49
rybosworld wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have any examples? Because all of the biggest and most famous crashes were events that only a very small minority of people ever saw coming. Tulips, 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened.

> 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened. The "public discussion" is a whole different thing. They weren't in the public discussion because macroeconomic theory isn't something mom and pop like to chat about on the weekend. They only become dinner-table discussion topics when the impacts hit main street, after they happen. But bubbles in re…

Right - my point is that if everyone is talking about it, then it isn't a bubble that's waiting to be popped.

Anecdotally, I have family who don't follow the stock market at all and are talking about the "AI Bubble" that's about to pop.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#53

Post by rybosworld »

axus wrote: post #47
rybosworld wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have any examples? Because all of the biggest and most famous crashes were events that only a very small minority of people ever saw coming. Tulips, 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened.

2008 financial crisis, after years of "mortgage bros" inflating that bubble.

That's the great recession

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#54

Post by echelon »

goatlover wrote: post #48
infecto wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People enjoy the narrative that AI is doomed. I am in the same mindset as you. I cannot see compute demand changing anytime soon.

This is a straw man position. Who is saying AI is doomed? There were previous winters but the technology kept improving. What people are doubting is all the current hype around it. Stuff like AGI and the singularity being right around the corner with fully automated societies and robots dong all your chores for you. Rather than it being presented as productivity tool for enhancing human labor and activity, it's prese…

> the current hype around it.

- Fable

- Seedance

- Nano Banana / GPT Image

- Kimi

- ChatGPT

These tools are 80-90% of my day now.

Google Search? Meh. Chrome? Eh. Mac or Linux? Honestly just input devices now.

The models are the hottest thing in the world.

I am getting so much done. If I told myself from two years ago the progress these models would have made, I wouldn't have believed it.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#55

Post by minimaltom »

metalliqaz wrote: post #43

Leverage is imploding the Korean market, and so it will be for the US.

South Korea had an extremely large population of retail investors investing in options and leveraged ETFs, to the point that 3% of the adult population has now been margin-called.

That setup isnt true for the US, not even close.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#56

Post by chasd00 »

echelon wrote: post #38
scarlehoff wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Internet didn't disappear after the dotcom crash, but a lot of money did. This is what could happen here I think.

The internet remains the biggest singular development of my entire life. The most valuable companies in the world are internet companies. Journalists have been eager to call AI "over" since 2022, and yet: - Models just got good at writing code this year - Models just got good at editing images last year - Models just got good at cinematic video this year This hasn't even played out. It hasn't even started. Why on ear…

it is a little ironic how software devs loved creative destruction and "paradigm shifts" until it happened to them. I think what happened to Journalism is unfolding again but this time to the software development industry. Some will survive and adjust but many won't, the change is just too fast and sudden for an industry use to being immune.

I think other industries are use to being continually disrupted by advances in technology and so will adapt easier and faster. Which again, is kind of ironic..

(i am a dev myself but it still makes me laugh)

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#57

Post by infecto »

goatlover wrote: post #48
infecto wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People enjoy the narrative that AI is doomed. I am in the same mindset as you. I cannot see compute demand changing anytime soon.

This is a straw man position. Who is saying AI is doomed? There were previous winters but the technology kept improving. What people are doubting is all the current hype around it. Stuff like AGI and the singularity being right around the corner with fully automated societies and robots dong all your chores for you. Rather than it being presented as productivity tool for enhancing human labor and activity, it's prese…

You’re arguing against claims I never made. You can reject AGI hype and still believe AI demand, infrastructure buildout, and commercial adoption will continue growing.

Absolutely lots of hype but there is lots of value behind generated (unlike crypto) and we are still very early. This is what I was pointing at. There are folks on very extreme both sides, you are a good example, and I happen to believe it’s probably somewhere in the middle.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#58

Post by kube-system »

rybosworld wrote: post #51
kube-system wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened. The "public discussion" is a whole different thing. They weren't in the public discussion because macroeconomic theory isn't something mom and pop like to chat about on the weekend. They only become dinner-table discussion topics when the impacts hit main street, after they happen. But bubbles in re…

Right - my point is that if everyone is talking about it, then it isn't a bubble that's waiting to be popped. Anecdotally, I have family who don't follow the stock market at all and are talking about the "AI Bubble" that's about to pop.

People in the early 2000s were talking about crazy housing prices.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#59

Post by darth_avocado »

missedthecue wrote: post #5

As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down, it does feel like there are a lot more people thinking this is inning 9 of the LLM story than there are people thinking it's inning 3. Which makes it tempting to believe it's probably closer to inning 3.

> As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down

Sorry to break it to you but you are neither immune nor a bystander to the fortunes of AI going down. You are part of it all whether you like it or not.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#60

Post by xyzsparetimexyz »

missedthecue wrote: post #5

As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down, it does feel like there are a lot more people thinking this is inning 9 of the LLM story than there are people thinking it's inning 3. Which makes it tempting to believe it's probably closer to inning 3.

Can you convert that analogy to European?
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