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The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

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Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#21

Post by lluisantoni »

lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

Also, something else to add. At first I thought no one wants to build data centers in hotter areas in the middle of deserts (many places in the American continent). So nobody would spend money building a data center in the Chihuahuan Desert for instance. However, a game of latencies will either require cover llm access from these areas, or make people move closer to the other data centers. In the former, llm prices will go up; in the latter, there will be a migration towards data centers that increase the price of the areas around.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#22

Post by cracell »

lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

I don't understand this argument.

Go to OpenRouter and look at all of the unsubsidized providers.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#23

Post by KeplerBoy »

lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

Open weight models tell a different story. Inference is not that much more expensive than what a 100$ plan would allow and will only get cheaper (for current capability models of course, frontier not so much).

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#24

Post by thepasch »

tremon wrote: post #17
sysguest wrote: post #5

well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM limitations as for google... well they own the web (+google has plenty of other revenue sources, so it can just pay out its AI survival) if you're a website owner, would you welcome chatgpt/etc's data-collection bots? but... as for google's bots... you need your…

I expect Nvidia to survive the crash on its own, and everyone else except Softbank to be bailed out with US taxpayer money.

Nvidia has hordes of raucous gamers on the prowl waiting to tear their chips out of their hands the moment hyperscaler demand falters; plus, China has made sure there will always be plenty of open models to run for hobbyists and neoclouds, even if training compute were to drop off a cliff. They'll be just fine.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#25

Post by KeplerBoy »

lluisantoni wrote: post #21
lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

Also, something else to add. At first I thought no one wants to build data centers in hotter areas in the middle of deserts (many places in the American continent). So nobody would spend money building a data center in the Chihuahuan Desert for instance. However, a game of latencies will either require cover llm access from these areas, or make people move closer to the other data centers. In the former, llm prices w…

Who cares about a few ms more latency on an LLM API? Maybe for voice, but most other use-cases are quite latency insensitive.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#26

Post by trashb »

sysguest wrote: post #5

well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM limitations as for google... well they own the web (+google has plenty of other revenue sources, so it can just pay out its AI survival) if you're a website owner, would you welcome chatgpt/etc's data-collection bots? but... as for google's bots... you need your…

> but... as for google's bots... you need your website to be on the Google search results...

Why? Depends totally on what kind of website you are running.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#27

Post by inigyou »

cmiles8 wrote: post #12

Outside a relatively small world of circular investment and FOMO feeding FOMO the general consensus seems to be “let it burn.” It appears very unlikely we will ever see an IPO of OpenAI. Anthropic appears less doomed, but still iffy at best. Tons of other large, but little discussed, AI startups are just dead-companies-walking at this point. The likes of AWS are showing good headline numbers but are taking out massiv…

It's holding up the entire US stock market and therefore the entire US economy and the dollar value. You probably don't want this particular Atlas to shrug.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#29

Post by lopis »

lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

> 100k/year to 200k/year

Is this range just Silicon Valley or what is this? Even including just Europe, you're looking at a lower bracket of 10k. If you expand to the rest of the world... Or do you think rich cities in the USA, where developers make 100k+ per year, can alone sustain this industry?

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#30

Post by NoDodgeQuestion »

lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

This is something I have been pondering recently. If I compare the cost of a plunger ($23.99 on Amazon) to a median plumber salary ($62,970 per year per BLS), the difference is orders of magnitude. This feels like a gap that needs to close. I suspect plungers are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use them. I think soon we will seen plungers that are only sold at very high prices.
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