Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

theregister.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 154 posts

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#11

Post by gizajob »

bzzzt wrote: post #8
sysguest wrote: post #5

well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM limitations as for google... well they own the web (+google has plenty of other revenue sources, so it can just pay out its AI survival) if you're a website owner, would you welcome chatgpt/etc's data-collection bots? but... as for google's bots... you need your…

> well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google Also, possible Apple since they haven't gone into deep debt to finance 'AI buildout'.

They’re also primed to capture the on-device AI market in 3-5 years time when a “good enough” model can run locally.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#12

Post by cmiles8 »

Outside a relatively small world of circular investment and FOMO feeding FOMO the general consensus seems to be “let it burn.”

It appears very unlikely we will ever see an IPO of OpenAI. Anthropic appears less doomed, but still iffy at best. Tons of other large, but little discussed, AI startups are just dead-companies-walking at this point.

The likes of AWS are showing good headline numbers but are taking out massive debt to build infrastructure that looks increasingly unneeded. Those with capacity are looking to offload it, quickly. Yes AWS has “committed contracts” for this capacity but if those commitments are with shaky AI startups then it’s mostly just fluff PR and these hyperscalers will get left holding the bag on all this debt.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#13

Post by lluisantoni »

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use them. I think soon we will see models that are only sold at very high prices.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#14

Post by digitcatphd »

I would argue we still have not even really gotten started.

What do we have in the decade ahead? Robotics in every household, models 10x+ faster and more intelligent than today.

Really no significant impact in life sciences, R&D, and 'offline' world / robotics today as of yet, which is where most of the value will live.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#15

Post by InsideOutSanta »

simianwords wrote: post #2

> I caution anyone looking at API prices: they dropped the price, but is it actually less expensive? > Yeah, they dropped the price, but count the number of tokens you're tossing into it and see if it's actually cheaper. It's good for marketing, but the rub is how much you're actually using. The level of discourse is so horrible now, I don't have words. Are these the ones making predictions on AI bubble?

This is poorly stated in the podcast, but the underlying point is correct: while cost-per-token is going down, overall token use is way up. This is causing the cost of using LLMs in corporations to skyrocket.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#16

Post by brazzy »

bzzzt wrote: post #8
sysguest wrote: post #5

well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM limitations as for google... well they own the web (+google has plenty of other revenue sources, so it can just pay out its AI survival) if you're a website owner, would you welcome chatgpt/etc's data-collection bots? but... as for google's bots... you need your…

> well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google Also, possible Apple since they haven't gone into deep debt to finance 'AI buildout'.

Do they even have any direct exposure to the whole AI bubble?

If not, I'd say they don't even count in the "everyone"-

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#17

Post by tremon »

sysguest wrote: post #5

well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM limitations as for google... well they own the web (+google has plenty of other revenue sources, so it can just pay out its AI survival) if you're a website owner, would you welcome chatgpt/etc's data-collection bots? but... as for google's bots... you need your…

I expect Nvidia to survive the crash on its own, and everyone else except Softbank to be bailed out with US taxpayer money.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#19

Post by Cthulhu_ »

digitcatphd wrote: post #14

I would argue we still have not even really gotten started. What do we have in the decade ahead? Robotics in every household, models 10x+ faster and more intelligent than today. Really no significant impact in life sciences, R&D, and 'offline' world / robotics today as of yet, which is where most of the value will live.

Robotics in the household has been the realm of science fiction for decades and it still hasn't happened. We get dedicated, compact machines like dishwashers and washing machine/dryers, that's it. Most recent innovation has been the automatic vacuum.

If you want someone else to do household chores, hire someone. You can pay someone to do your house chores for years for the cost that these things will have initially.

Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet

#20

Post by terabytest »

lluisantoni wrote: post #13

There is something I have been pondering recently. If we compare the cost of AI subscriptions (let's say Claude's 100/month) to a median developer salary (let's say 100k/year to 200k/year), the difference is orders of magnitude. This fills like a gap that needs to close. I suspect llms are too cheap right now but will raise their prices to a point where only big companies will be able to afford subscriptions to use t…

LLMs are not as cheap on enterprise plans.
Post reply on HN