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AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

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Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#291

People in this thread are massively underestimating the level of financial illiteracy in the general population. We've had multiple people try to convince us to set up bank accounts for our kids, so that they could accumulate interest over 18 years. More that tried to convince me to gamble on random pump and dump shitcoins. More still that talked about "investing" in random collectables like Funko Pops or Pokemon car…

> You could replace the AI with a piece of paper […] This is actually the 'schtick' of a book that was written ten years ago: > Emails and comments on his blog asked for a real index card with financial advice, so Pollack jotted down nine rules in two minutes, took a picture of it, and posted it online.[1][4] The image went viral, and was covered on many internet news sites.[4][5][6] Pollack and Olen wrote The Index…

> 2. Buy inexpensive, well-diversified mutual funds such as Vanguard Target 20xx funds.

I wouldn't recommend this after seeing how SpaceX was literally shoved down lots of people's throats.

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#292
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could replace the AI with a piece of paper […] This is actually the 'schtick' of a book that was written ten years ago: > Emails and comments on his blog asked for a real index card with financial advice, so Pollack jotted down nine rules in two minutes, took a picture of it, and posted it online.[1][4] The image went viral, and was covered on many internet news sites.[4][5][6] Pollack and Olen wrote The Index…

> Never buy or sell an individual security. This is controversial but very bad advice. No index funds, by their nature, will ever match the return of high-flying company stocks. If you have very little investment capital available, then yes, allocate it all to index funds because you can't afford to narrow it down yet. But as soon as you have some room to invest in individual stocks, do it. After about three decades…

You are suffering from the survivorship bias in its purest form. I really hope nobody follows your advice.

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#293
post #164

People in this thread are massively underestimating the level of financial illiteracy in the general population. We've had multiple people try to convince us to set up bank accounts for our kids, so that they could accumulate interest over 18 years. More that tried to convince me to gamble on random pump and dump shitcoins. More still that talked about "investing" in random collectables like Funko Pops or Pokemon car…

> We've had multiple people try to convince us to set up bank accounts for our kids, so that they could accumulate interest over 18 years. I don’t really see the problem here? Why wouldn’t you want to set up financial accounts for your children and invest in them?

> set up bank accounts for our kids

yes

> so that they could accumulate interest over 18 years

at 1% ... no ... the value of that money will so eroded by 18 years of time - a better investment would be in some good memories with them; go to europe and see the Sistine Chapel or teach them to surf / play tennis.

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#295
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was at a dealership not that long ago to buy a new car for someone. The seller explained us how a lease was so much better financially than outright buying. He was completely wrong on the fundamentals: basically with a lease the car company makes you a huge favour because after the three years are up the car is worthless but they’ll take it back and lease you a new one anyway and you get a brand new car. Whereas if…

> The seller explained us how a lease was so much better financially than outright buying. Of course a lease is better than buying.. for the dealer. So the seller was honest, just not entirely transparent. Leasing is one of the dumbest financial moves ever. Forces you into a perpetual treadmill of payments for life. Just buy a car, pay it off (cash if you can, or with a loan) and then drive it forever.

Some people want a new car all the time. Leasing is not a bad way to do that.

Wanting a new car all the time is the expensive decision, not leasing, which is merely a manifestation of that decision.

As someone who drives a ten-year-old car that probably has several good years left, I completely understand why someone would not want my boring life. This is the fallacy of people who recount stories of the “millionaire next door” who has high net worth. Many people do not really want wealth. They want to consume a lot: travel, new cars, restaurants, clothes.

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#296
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Never buy or sell an individual security. This is controversial but very bad advice. No index funds, by their nature, will ever match the return of high-flying company stocks. If you have very little investment capital available, then yes, allocate it all to index funds because you can't afford to narrow it down yet. But as soon as you have some room to invest in individual stocks, do it. After about three decades…

You are suffering from the survivorship bias in its purest form. I really hope nobody follows your advice.

And experiences come from the bulliest of bull markets. Where most people who bet on large sector are winners. Past performance is most likely future performance if things go south...

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#297
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could replace the AI with a piece of paper […] This is actually the 'schtick' of a book that was written ten years ago: > Emails and comments on his blog asked for a real index card with financial advice, so Pollack jotted down nine rules in two minutes, took a picture of it, and posted it online.[1][4] The image went viral, and was covered on many internet news sites.[4][5][6] Pollack and Olen wrote The Index…

> Never buy or sell an individual security. This is controversial but very bad advice. No index funds, by their nature, will ever match the return of high-flying company stocks. If you have very little investment capital available, then yes, allocate it all to index funds because you can't afford to narrow it down yet. But as soon as you have some room to invest in individual stocks, do it. After about three decades…

> More than 60% of my net worth is just from two stocks.

I would hope you realize that your good fortune (aka luck) does not generalize to an entire population.

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never personally liked the blanket advice to "Max your 401k." For most, if achievable at all, that would be the most they can invest at all. Even though it is often recommended alongside a proper "emergency fund," that advice leaves little liquidity without major penalties.

I actually had a great session with Gemini pushing back on the "Max 401k" advice. Summarized in my own words: - Why would I contribute tons more to my already decent 401k? If anything, I want to pull from it. I refuse to diminish the peak years of me and my family's life together just to be wealthy when I'm old and alone. - that's a good point, but know you'll pay tax on top of 10% - well I would have paid tax anyway…

You're missing the whole point of IRAs. You said:

>> well I would have paid tax anyway if I just saved it

The point is that as long as your money is in the IRA you can earn interest or buy stocks, sell for a profit, over and over and not pay any taxes on your gains in between.

Imagine you have $100k in a normal trading account and $100k in an IRA. You make the same trades in both and both are up $20k at the end of the year. Let's say then you want to trade out and take profit. The normal account triggers taxes on $20k worth of capital gains, so maybe it now has $115k in it. The IRA doesn't, so it still has $120k in it. Go ten years like that. At the end when you withdraw from the IRA, yes you have to pay taxes on the total gains (if it's not a Roth) BUT you had the use of that extra $5k every year you didn't pay taxes on! The whole time, all that tax money you didn't pay compounds to let you make more money with it. That's the concept. You're allowed to keep using the money that you would've otherwise had to give to the government, to make more money along the way. The final 20% you pay when you cash out is less than how much you made by compounding the tax savings and plowing them back into investments.

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't downvote them, but I am genuinely curious to hear from people who "can't save money", and try to understand why that's the case. My assumption is that a large percent of them are spending way more than they need to, but that could easily be an incorrect stereotype.

Federal Reserve studies indicate that 10-15% of the US population can’t save money due to fundamental financial realities. That is, the necessary expenses of an ordinary lifestyle consumes all of their income. That is tens of millions of people. There is another ~30% that expand their lifestyle to consume all available income. Not saving is a choice for this part of the population.

[flagged]

Re: AI financial advice is surprisingly good, especially if you ask right questions

#300
post #70

AI seems to struggle most when it has to make decisions with lots of trade-offs, especially where the context or implications of various decisions are nested, which is presumably why it struggles to write full software systems that are well-designed. By comparison, financial advice is pretty simple, and there is a universally agreed-upon approach that most people should follow to maximize long-term financial health.

This is the common fallacy of “AI is terrible in my own field of which I have deep knowledge, but AI is totally fine in this other field of which I only have cursory knowledge.” Even ignoring all other aspects of financial advice and only focus on saving for retirement, there are so many topics involved like asset allocation glide paths, tax advantaged accounts, safe withdrawal rate, sequence of return risk, etc etc.…

> This is the common fallacy of “AI is terrible in my own field of which I have deep knowledge, but AI is totally fine in this other field of which I only have cursory knowledge.”

Gell-Mann amnesia effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#%22Gell-Mann_...

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