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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

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31–40 of 91 posts

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#31
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they never had my business; their style over all else along with the combination of planned obsolescence and conspicuous consumption are obscene misuse of the human heuristics.

They're the company that builds laptops people still use 5-10 years later. If anything they've set the standard for long lifespans when it comes to tech devices.

I'm still using my Thinkpad from 2016.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#32

Stock valuation has nothing to do with AI being the most transformational tech ever devised. Like who can't grasp that

I don't think LLMs can approach, in terms of transformational power, writing, printing, or even the personal computer, but I get what you're saying.

It hasn't even been 4 years since ChatGPT released. It's far too early to know the limit of where LLMs/LRMs will go.

Especially since they're seeing huge leaps in capabilities every few months.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#33

if they simply stayed out of it, they would get my business from here on out. too late for that though.

they never had my business; their style over all else along with the combination of planned obsolescence and conspicuous consumption are obscene misuse of the human heuristics.

In September they're bringing the latest major iOS version to the iPhone 11 which released 7 years ago. And from what I've seen on the iPhone 11 subreddit, it improves performance.

What other device manufacturer does that? The Google Pixel 4 released the same year dropped major OS updates after 3 years. Same for the Galaxy S10.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#35

Ed Zitron also said that consumers were losing interest in ChatGPT in January 2024, that AI models were reaching their upper possible limits in Feburary 2024, that ChatGPT and similar products were "not particularly useful for anything", that hallucinations could not possibly be reduced in models, etc. He's a churlish AI skeptic that isn't worth listening to.

If you're wondering why these "churls" are increasingly popular, it's the reality that far from being mobbed by skeptics, the entire market economy is being taken for a ride in the name of AI. It's very much like the febrile environment that developed about Crytpo, in which anyone who expressed concern that maybe this tech wasn't going to revolutionize money, programming, and society itself was a "churlish skeptic".

I certainly wouldn't credit Ed Zitron with timing his predictions very well, but that doesn't make them wrong, and it certainly doesn't support the AI maximalism we're all forced to endure.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#36

It's so popular to think this is a bubble. Some aspects likely are, but the zeal for this to be a bubble is disturbing to me. I get that there will be winners and if you're not one of them, you might be more likely to want this thing to pop. In my mind, that's not the right disposition, you should want the gains to be spread as equitably as possible.

The losses are being spread equitably to anyone who has wanted to buy computing equipment over the last few years. Similarly anyone who wants to buy electricity in a region impacted by data center build outs.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#37
post #29

Ed Zitron also said that consumers were losing interest in ChatGPT in January 2024, that AI models were reaching their upper possible limits in Feburary 2024, that ChatGPT and similar products were "not particularly useful for anything", that hallucinations could not possibly be reduced in models, etc. He's a churlish AI skeptic that isn't worth listening to.

Zed publishes usage metrics for AI and they are trending down: https://zed.dev/agent-metrics

It's summer vacation time.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#38
post #29

Ed Zitron also said that consumers were losing interest in ChatGPT in January 2024, that AI models were reaching their upper possible limits in Feburary 2024, that ChatGPT and similar products were "not particularly useful for anything", that hallucinations could not possibly be reduced in models, etc. He's a churlish AI skeptic that isn't worth listening to.

Zed publishes usage metrics for AI and they are trending down: https://zed.dev/agent-metrics

I love zed but it’s become just a terminal and markdown editor. All of my LLM usage is outside of it.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#39
There are three companies I am confident will survive an AI bubble popping: Google, Microsoft and Apple.

A lot has been made of Google's recent earnings being cash flow negative (I think for the first time ever?). Building data centers is something Google is very good at. They've also partially or wholly insulated themselves from a collpase by using Special Purpose Vehicles ("SPVs") where the collateral for loans is simply the GPUs. Even the physical building and the land its own is leased from another subsidiary. Google is still a cash cow. I also think they may break the NVidia mohnopoly with their own TPU hardware given enough time.

Microsoft too is a cash cow and seemingly hasn't bet the farm on Copilot.

And Apple is a real dark horse here. They, like Microsoft, don't seem to have bet the farm on AI but also, they're in a unique position to drive a move to local LLMs with their own silicon. Their ARM CPUs use a shared memory architecture. Nvidia strictly segments the market by limitng VRAM on consumer GPUs. Apple can get around that. They just don't have the raw FLOPS to compete yet. There have been rumors they're targeting the M7 series in 2028 for a big jump in AI performance.

This market is going to boil down to performance-per-Watt (IMHO) and that's going to be interesting to watch as NVidia moves up to an annual product cycle. what will the new generation do to existing deployements when hardware 1-3 years is at a severe PPW disadvantage? we'll see.

Personally I just want to be able to buy 64GB of RAM for $200 and an SSD for under $100 again. You know, like 2025.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

#40
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they never had my business; their style over all else along with the combination of planned obsolescence and conspicuous consumption are obscene misuse of the human heuristics.

They're the company that builds laptops people still use 5-10 years later. If anything they've set the standard for long lifespans when it comes to tech devices.

Thinkpads are saying hello :)

Not to turn this into a Web fight or anything, but come on... Even my t420S from 2011 could be upgraded with ssd and more ram and is still used :). My daily driver is t480, 8 years old, my wive's x1 carbon 7 years old, with no intention of retiring either anytime soon.

The notion of Apple, of all companies, "setting standard for long span devices", is laughable to me as I look at my ipads no longer running old software I paid for and getting slower with every forced update.

Apple makes sexy devices that match many people's requirements. Good on them! But this continued notion they invented everything is grating.

:-)

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