While Anthropic and Open AI get 80% of the attention here, it's impressive to see how much Google is doing: near frontier model, fast models, open weight models, image generation, video generation, music generation, robotics, etc.
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Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
471–480 of 584 posts
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#472Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you can even afford 20K you're in the top 10% of the US population. It's not a very big market, and even selling to that market is hard. Probably only 10% of that 10% will actually buy, and all of a sudden you're selling to 1%. Selling to businesses is much easier, 99% of businesses can afford 200K if it replaces 3 x 70K humans.
Most people finance vehicles that cost much more than 20K. I'd gladly pay or finance a robot that could have dishes clean, laundry folded, and carpets vacuumed by the time our family got home.
So many people talking like cleaning services don't exist
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#473Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where I live, you typically share house cleaners with your neighbors or family members. My parents, aunt/uncle, grandparents, and one of my neighbors uses the same house cleaner. If she stole from me, I’d immediately tell my family and she would lose basically all of her clients. That makes it easier for me to trust her. (It works similarly in NYC apartment buildings - a single cleaner often services many people in t…
My understanding from parents and friends who have a cleaning service...it pretty much depends on a certain baseline level of cleanliness. Most cleaning services don't (and likely wouldn't be able to provide) basic "pick up around the house". They will come into a house that is mostly picked up and sweep, dust, mop, vacuum, etc. but they won't come into a toddler house and put everything away. I'm sure that there are…
> I'm sure that there are services that do this, but I very much doubt they are the $400 per month services you are talking about
Costs me 160 / month for 4hrs / week.
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#474Earlier quoted context omitted.
For house keeping tasks the robotics companies love showing off... it honestly doesn't matter if it takes a robot longer than a human to clean your house. As long as it gets done before you get home from work, no big deal.
I'm bearish that they'll be economically viable in the house for a very long time. For businesses the bar for adoption is very low: If the thing can work repetitive jobs for 24 hours a day and replace 3 shifts, the purchase bar is nominally anything less than 3 x human salary if your budgeting horizon is 1 year. That's a high number, and probably fairly easy to achieve. For homes, it's a very different bar. You'd hav…
They could be shared, and work practically non-stop (minus nights, as that would wake people up). That'd bring the per-consumer cost down by a large fraction. The sharing would likely be organized by a commercial third-party, but still, it could be much cheaper than human cleaners.
Having said that, it could still be decades till the robot is ready to be released into human homes unsupervised. The variation in human homes, what people store in them etc. is not easy. However, it could be ready for hotels much sooner.
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#475Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where I live, you typically share house cleaners with your neighbors or family members. My parents, aunt/uncle, grandparents, and one of my neighbors uses the same house cleaner. If she stole from me, I’d immediately tell my family and she would lose basically all of her clients. That makes it easier for me to trust her. (It works similarly in NYC apartment buildings - a single cleaner often services many people in t…
My understanding from parents and friends who have a cleaning service...it pretty much depends on a certain baseline level of cleanliness. Most cleaning services don't (and likely wouldn't be able to provide) basic "pick up around the house". They will come into a house that is mostly picked up and sweep, dust, mop, vacuum, etc. but they won't come into a toddler house and put everything away. I'm sure that there are…
This is the part of the thread I was looking for.
Obviously the whole question is how a robot cleaner compares to a human.
As you point out, the potential for robots far outperforms humans in multiple categories (although clearly not all by any stretch).
I'd say pricing around that of a lower end new car - or nice used one - seems about right to me. In terms of justifying the price, another thing I haven't seen discussed much is the competitive advantage this can provide. If you're spending less time cleaning, that's more time for other things.
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#476This page is just marketing…more interesting is that: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/go...
Success-rate of ~60% Accuracy: ~80% That’s pretty low and definitely not production ready
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#477Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yesterday evening I rode 12 miles in a Waymo actively dodging pedestrians and obstacles dynamically in an open ended environment. Multiples better experience than the two Ubers I had later that evening. What are you bearish about precisely?
I'm not talking about the state of today's self-driving cars, I'm talking about how we got to here. Also don't forget the overarching claim regarding lack of sensor and actuator fidelity in the parent comment; self-driving cars in contrast have expensive LIDAR in them and we still don't think camera-based self-driving cars are safe enough.
Using LIDAR is of course the perfect example of the bitter lesson. More data makes for better outcomes.
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#478Earlier quoted context omitted.
This seems like a post by someone who hasn't really ingested the bitter lesson. Eg, even LeRobot (without proper fingers) can fold clothes now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPe9v4gqbdg The labs are spending huge money collecting "multisensory, perception-action coupled training data" (eg, there is the one in NY that gives you free cleaning in return for video data from the cleaner). Edit: The Gemini Robotics blog…
But how does LLMs help in making chat bots better, help with this "multi-sensory" data. Has this anything to do with the current AI surge with LLMs? Has it been demonstrated? Or is it just that such things now get a lot of funding now, for no good reason?
>But how does LLMs help in making chat bots better, help with this "multi-sensory" data.
All three offerings from the linked blog post are either Vision LLMs or Vision/Action LLMs.
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#479At the point it gets solid and useful, the powers that be will immediately use them as weapon.
Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
#480Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not many people would pay $62K for a Tesla Model Y if they could get a BYD Sealion for $37K.
Do you know what 'margins' means? And even in markets where BYD Sealion is sold - including China - Tesla Model Y outsells it!
Margins means exactly what the poster you are replying to implies: that in the US Tesla has high margins (the difference between cost of good sold and what you get for them) because tarrifs make Chinese brands uncompetitive.
And as Tesla's latest financials showed they are under margin pressure too, even with that: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tesla-tsla...
> in markets where BYD Sealion is sold - including China - Tesla Model Y outsells it!
Sure, but that's because BYD (for example) has both the Atto 3 and the Sealion which overlap in market segment.