The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling • Hacker News Board

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#21

Post by abtinf » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:46 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

> There are generally two ways of tackling high inflation: with monetary policy (ie raising interest rates) and with fiscal policy (by raising taxes).

While this is the orthodoxy, it should be obvious it is nonsense.

The idea that we must curtail production in order to reduce inflation is so incoherent that it damns the professional court economists who have spread it far and wide.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#22

Post by avmich » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:46 AM UTC

lowbloodsugar wrote: post #15

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

Higher interest rates mean buyers can afford less house for the money. House prices go down. Boomers get mad.

You're sure house prices are elastic here?

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#23

Post by ryanwhitney » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:48 AM UTC

UltraSane wrote: post #16

jmyeet wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…

"he is an avowed Zionist" What exactly do you mean when you say Zionist?

I believe they're referring to when Joe Biden said "I am a Zionist."

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#24

Post by lovich » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:50 AM UTC

CamelCaseName wrote: post #7

thrwaway55 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This is low quality flamebait.

the account is named with throwaway misspelled in the name, he's mocking anyone who interacts with him. Just flag and move on so these assholes don't get more engagement.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#25

Post by deepsun » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:52 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

> This is all being exacerbated by the disastrous war in Iran

No, why? US is an exporter, not importer of oil, so any price increase of crude oil is good for US. Maybe not consumers, but government (Venezuela had literal amine while exporting a lot of oil and honoring all of the international debt payments). So US must have more money to service its international debt.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#26

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

[deleted]

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#27

Post by orsenthil » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:54 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

The interesting thing is, US media, US social media driven by Big Tech algorithms, Google Search, nytimes, reddit, Social newsfeeds of students, teens, teachers is not exposing this at all. It feels like we are self-contained information exposure bubble too. Only a physical visit outside of US, and looking at the information from outside of US will give a picture of the mistakes being made here.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#28

Post by matwood » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:58 AM UTC

avmich wrote: post #22

lowbloodsugar wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Higher interest rates mean buyers can afford less house for the money. House prices go down. Boomers get mad.

You're sure house prices are elastic here?

They are slowly elastic. The only way to speed up the re-pricing is a recession where people lose their jobs and are forced to sell. Otherwise, it's mainly young people entering their first house phase that get impacted - which is exactly what we've seen.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#29

Post by eunos » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

China should increase the import pace especially after the US strategic reserve depleted. Considering that despite Chinese saving, US and EU are more interested doing another trade war.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#30

Post by miohtama » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:02 AM UTC

Reuters attributes this to be somehow a personal flaw in Walsh.

Pretty sure Jerome Powell, the previous chair, would have done exactly the same thing. In fact Jerome Powell is still in the Fed and participated in this decision.