The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling • Hacker News Board

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#11

Post by Panzer04 » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:22 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

American fixed 30y mortgages actually make interest rate policy much less effective, in theory.

In most countries with normal mortgages, raising rates fairly immediately transmits through to the rest of the economy, because it affects the mortgage market. This isn't true in America, because everyone quite reasonably is able to get these insane mortgage products with literally no downside risk - if rates go up, you don't pay more. If they go down, you refinance at minimal cost.

Agree to disagree on the tax issue. The way you've framed it is fairly inflammatory, but happy to have a discussion about it. The reality is that as much money as rich people have, the middle class have a whole lot more. Every country with large government spending has broad, high taxes on the entire population, not just the rich.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#12

Post by nikau » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #8

bayarearefugee wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And somehow this situation is all Joe Biden's fault, and Trump is still going to fix it, any day now. A very significant amount of American voters believe this. To this day. And their belief in this is still being reinforced by the vast majority of the "mainstream media" which they believe is left-biased, which hasn't been true for very many years at this point. This is why we are fucked and there is no way out of th…

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…

I can't understand the logic behind party A did something, and then blame party B for not undoing it.

Not everything is a simple ctrl-z, and the blame lays squarely on who implemented it.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#13

Post by cjs_ac » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

Adding to this, US foreign and military policy is increasingly chaotic, so other countries are quietly disengaging, and tariffs are slowly unravelling the US’ trade relationships. The American people voted for Trump twice: Trumpism is now an established thread in US politics, and the rest of the world is taking steps to insulate itself from the coming turmoil.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#14

Post by jmward01 » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:26 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #8

bayarearefugee wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And somehow this situation is all Joe Biden's fault, and Trump is still going to fix it, any day now. A very significant amount of American voters believe this. To this day. And their belief in this is still being reinforced by the vast majority of the "mainstream media" which they believe is left-biased, which hasn't been true for very many years at this point. This is why we are fucked and there is no way out of th…

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…

No comment on the points you made, but thanks for the article No One Goes to War Over a Solar Panel' was a good read.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#15

Post by lowbloodsugar » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:27 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

Higher interest rates mean buyers can afford less house for the money. House prices go down. Boomers get mad.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#16

Post by UltraSane » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:30 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #8

bayarearefugee wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And somehow this situation is all Joe Biden's fault, and Trump is still going to fix it, any day now. A very significant amount of American voters believe this. To this day. And their belief in this is still being reinforced by the vast majority of the "mainstream media" which they believe is left-biased, which hasn't been true for very many years at this point. This is why we are fucked and there is no way out of th…

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…

"he is an avowed Zionist"

What exactly do you mean when you say Zionist?

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#17

Post by lowbloodsugar » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:33 AM UTC

nikau wrote: post #12

jmyeet wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…

I can't understand the logic behind party A did something, and then blame party B for not undoing it. Not everything is a simple ctrl-z, and the blame lays squarely on who implemented it.

A mugger stabs your friend and runs off. They are bleeding out. You do nothing. That’s what he’s saying. The fact is Biden did nothing to prevent this. Including not locking the fucker up. Not stacking the Supreme Court after the Ginsberg shitshow.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#18

Post by seizethecheese » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:37 AM UTC

cjs_ac wrote: post #13

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

Adding to this, US foreign and military policy is increasingly chaotic, so other countries are quietly disengaging, and tariffs are slowly unravelling the US’ trade relationships. The American people voted for Trump twice : Trumpism is now an established thread in US politics, and the rest of the world is taking steps to insulate itself from the coming turmoil.

You’re right about a lot of this but there’s no evidence of trade slowing down. US exports are actually accelerating https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IEAXGS

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#19

Post by avmich » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC

Panzer04 wrote: post #11

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

American fixed 30y mortgages actually make interest rate policy much less effective, in theory. In most countries with normal mortgages, raising rates fairly immediately transmits through to the rest of the economy, because it affects the mortgage market. This isn't true in America, because everyone quite reasonably is able to get these insane mortgage products with literally no downside risk - if rates go up, you do…

So you don't buy the POV the middle class is squeezed out of existence, almost?

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#20

Post by lovich » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #8

bayarearefugee wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And somehow this situation is all Joe Biden's fault, and Trump is still going to fix it, any day now. A very significant amount of American voters believe this. To this day. And their belief in this is still being reinforced by the vast majority of the "mainstream media" which they believe is left-biased, which hasn't been true for very many years at this point. This is why we are fucked and there is no way out of th…

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…

> At any point in the last more than a year of his term, Biden could've ended that conflict with a phone call. He did not because, again, he is an avowed Zionist.

No he could not have. Israel has been a contentious ally for the US, especially while a Democrat has been POTUS because they are actually independently capable of supporting themselves and have their own internal economy and military industrial complex.

The relationship between the United States and Israel started with us(The United States) peeling them off of USSR support in the late 60s[1], and if we abandon them they will either go it on their own or find another ally who has interests in the region due to oil still being important.

Biden as a representative of the United States had leverage over Israel, but not such complete control that he could just call Netanyahu and demand and end the war and have that be done with.

And that's not even getting into whatever the fuck you mean by " ... he is an avowed Zionist" [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union_and_the_Arab%E2%8...