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After the AI Crash

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Re: After the AI Crash

#41

Post by mikegioia »

dspillett wrote: post #25
_override wrote: post #8

When it comes to the AI crash honestly my biggest concern is what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash. Not sure how things are in the rest of the world, but as someone in their early 30s working in the IT industry in Sweden I’ve never seen the market this competitive before, even for mid level and senior roles, and it worries me what the future of employment is going to look…

> what the future of employment is going to look like As an already slightly outdated senior dev in the UK rapidly approaching 50 and not wanting to touch generative AI / agentic dev… … I'm increasingly looking forward to waiting tables, being a hospital porter, or anything else away from tech! I'm thinking that if I get out soon, I might beat most of the rush and be safely employed before many of the rest of you are…

Over 40 myself and switched to high school teaching this year. I feel like tech in general has been degrading for a while but 2025 AI really just wiped it out imo.

Re: After the AI Crash

#42

Post by dannersy »

Insanity wrote: post #37
rektomatic wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what exactly is this finish line? AGI?

That's what they'll sell you. But fundamentally current LLM implementations seem to be the wrong methodology for 'AGI' and I don't think we're remotely close to having this.

[flagged]

Re: After the AI Crash

#43

Post by AnimalMuppet »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #30
_override wrote: post #8

When it comes to the AI crash honestly my biggest concern is what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash. Not sure how things are in the rest of the world, but as someone in their early 30s working in the IT industry in Sweden I’ve never seen the market this competitive before, even for mid level and senior roles, and it worries me what the future of employment is going to look…

> what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash Junior programmers will be in demand again. Someone will have to fix the mountains of vibe coded technical debt.

I'm not sure that you're going to fix that with juniors...

Re: After the AI Crash

#44

Post by catlover76 »

21asdffdsa12 wrote: post #3
fidotron wrote: post #2

Without AI there is no future US economy. You're all in.

Eh, the empire aka, protection of free trade as a service is still alive and well with no viable alternative on the horizon. Every other empire is either not free trade or - just plain mercantilism and thus will exploit way more then the quite "idealist" us- trump is just a taste of what the others in power would feel like.

[dead]

Re: After the AI Crash

#45

Post by jplusequalt »

mosura wrote: post #31
contagiousflow wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is inevitable?

Artificial intelligence. If humans are machines executing on some medium eventually it will be possible to emulate them on some other medium. Believing otherwise requires some essentially religious convictions on the existence of the soul or similar.

>Believing otherwise requires some essentially religious convictions on the existence of the soul or similar.

My doubt has nothing to do with religion.

I believe we'll never be able to harness the amount of technology required to replicate human intelligence.

Re: After the AI Crash

#46

Post by romanovcode »

I think after the AI crash the biggest winner will be Apple.

They will release MacBook Pro M10 or whatever that can comfortably run Opus5 levels of performance local model for software development/general ai that is baked in the MacOS for 7k USD.

Re: After the AI Crash

#47

Post by Schlagbohrer »

outworlder wrote: post #24
Kuyawa wrote: post #14

AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.

Just like every AI cycle that came before. At every cycle, we get a new tool. But we also get an extended "AI Winter" where investment dries up. This has been happening since the 1980s, we just keep redefining what "AI" is. At every cycle we move the line a bit; at one point voice recognition was firmly in the AI camp(and before that, science fiction). Now we have a machine that can do that in our pockets and nobody…

Douglas Hofstadter talked about these moving goalposts for AI in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach. I remember when a program that could win at chess was considered impossibly strong AI. Then, the game go. Etc.

Heinlein in his book The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress imagined that people in the future would find it worthwhile, even necessary, to learn an artifical language LogLan so they could talk with computers. LogLan (Logical Language) would be designed to be totally unambiguous, a necessity for speaking with a computer. He didn't imagine that we'd simply throw so much compute at the problem that we'd teach computers to understand our vague, mumbled natural languages in all their diversity.

Re: After the AI Crash

#48

Post by ursuscamp »

toasty228 wrote: post #33
Kuyawa wrote: post #14

AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.

> absolutely no way to stop it. Unless if they take down the flat rate subs and you have to pay api prices, usage will drop a lot. Right now I freelance using gpt, if I had to pay api prices I'd probably lose 50% of the income, if not more, with the ~40% tax on top I might as well spend my time doing something else

I don't necessarily buy that API prices represent "real" prices of the models.

Re: After the AI Crash

#49

Post by zero_shift »

mosura wrote: post #31
contagiousflow wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is inevitable?

Artificial intelligence. If humans are machines executing on some medium eventually it will be possible to emulate them on some other medium. Believing otherwise requires some essentially religious convictions on the existence of the soul or similar.

We already have human intelligence. Creating new humans is easy (and fun)

The only reason to emulate human intelligence is to capture it, exploit it, and reduce the negotiating power of those who have it naturally. Anyone who wants this is not a friend of human beings

Re: After the AI Crash

#50

Post by Yopolo »

rektomatic wrote: post #27
Kuyawa wrote: post #14

AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.

what exactly is this finish line? AGI?

Yes.

Investors for sure don't care about people. Replace Accenture with OpenAI and you replace 800k people immediadly.

Geoffrey Hinton said it in his Videos: a normal person costs A LOT of money to train, educate, onboard, keep etc. they forget things etc.

AGI you train once, teach once then clone and copy and just run it.

We even might already crossed the line were it is already more cost efective to train 1-5 frontier models something it doesn't know yet than teaching this to a 1000 humans.

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