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After the AI Crash

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Re: After the AI Crash

#3

Post by 21asdffdsa12 »

fidotron wrote: post #2

Without AI there is no future US economy. You're all in.

Eh, the empire aka, protection of free trade as a service is still alive and well with no viable alternative on the horizon. Every other empire is either not free trade or - just plain mercantilism and thus will exploit way more then the quite "idealist" us- trump is just a taste of what the others in power would feel like.

Re: After the AI Crash

#4

Post by 21asdffdsa12 »

21asdffdsa12 wrote: post #3
fidotron wrote: post #2

Without AI there is no future US economy. You're all in.

Eh, the empire aka, protection of free trade as a service is still alive and well with no viable alternative on the horizon. Every other empire is either not free trade or - just plain mercantilism and thus will exploit way more then the quite "idealist" us- trump is just a taste of what the others in power would feel like.

That machinery and attached industries would keep on paddling for a while.

Re: After the AI Crash

#5

Post by fidotron »

21asdffdsa12 wrote: post #3
fidotron wrote: post #2

Without AI there is no future US economy. You're all in.

Eh, the empire aka, protection of free trade as a service is still alive and well with no viable alternative on the horizon. Every other empire is either not free trade or - just plain mercantilism and thus will exploit way more then the quite "idealist" us- trump is just a taste of what the others in power would feel like.

Without AI the Chinese have won already.

If you haven't noticed it's because you've stayed too close to the homeland.

Re: After the AI Crash

#6

Post by jhonof »

21asdffdsa12 wrote: post #3
fidotron wrote: post #2

Without AI there is no future US economy. You're all in.

Eh, the empire aka, protection of free trade as a service is still alive and well with no viable alternative on the horizon. Every other empire is either not free trade or - just plain mercantilism and thus will exploit way more then the quite "idealist" us- trump is just a taste of what the others in power would feel like.

Isn't the US like very clearly anti free trade at this point?

Re: After the AI Crash

#7

Post by nixonaddiction »

i mean my line is always "when." people have been saying ai is a bubble and will crash since the beginning. the question has always been "when." i think the best framing of the ai crash is not in terms of software, but in terms of real estate and infrastructure. the real cost is hidden in construction contracts and people buying up land (and chips, transformers, generators, etc), not in technology. this will be the 2008 real estate crash, not the 2000 dot com bubble. (altho this point is not my most well researched point, i tbh need to look more into hard numbers of where the most risk is distributed, ai software startups or data center contracts. but i also am in grad school i have papers to publish and no time.) im also gonna push back on the "diseconomy of scale" point. while its true that the best models rn use the most resources, we are building better smaller models as well. i recently set one up on my 12 gb vram and while its not nearly as good as claude, it works. i make it write really simple code for me. and we are still improving small models. i think theres some level of hope to economy of scale. obviously there are going to be physical limits, but im sure there will be a way to get economies of scale to work.

Re: After the AI Crash

#8

Post by _override »

When it comes to the AI crash honestly my biggest concern is what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash. Not sure how things are in the rest of the world, but as someone in their early 30s working in the IT industry in Sweden I’ve never seen the market this competitive before, even for mid level and senior roles, and it worries me what the future of employment is going to look like.

Maybe those older than me have been through this kind of thing before in 2008-2009 and in the early 2000s but the state of the IT job market in the last year or two has been really concerning to me. Anecdotally I’ve also heard it’s very tough for new graduates these days.

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