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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

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Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#301

Post by GTP »

rdedev wrote: post #137
GTP wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have numbers, but I would like to point out that he's missing a crucial number as well. The fact that maxing out a subscription's limit makes a user generate an amount of tokens that costs much more than the subscription itslef isn't enough to back his claim. What we need to know, is the average use of subscriptions. Think about Gyms. My gut feeling is that, if we run the numbers, we see that by maxing out a…

It could have worked if they weren't leveraged to their necks on spending. All based on the assumption that they can make something like 10x or higher in a few years. Another point against your gym analogy. When people don't have that much disposable income why would they subscribe to something they semi regularly use? And if it becomes more expensive why would they not cancel it?

> Another point against your gym analogy. When people don't have that much disposable income why would they subscribe to something they semi regularly use? And if it becomes more expensive why would they not cancel it?

I don't see where the difference is with gym subscriptions here.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#302

Post by 59percentmore »

whywhywhywhy wrote: post #152
59percentmore wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's the opposite. None of the players in XR wanted to be Apple'd, least of all Apple. That is, create a base product that someone else would refine in order to drink their milkshake. Apple delayed the AVP multiple times hoping to avoid getting sniped by Meta and Google et al., each time requiring a partial rebuild as the underlying tech advanced. They would have loved to have been able to get something out w…

Think Apple fell for the trap of assuming they would eventually solve the glasses form factor and then fell for the second trap of convincing themselves that passthrough VR was the same as their real XR vision.

I think they weren't naive enough for either, and that they released exactly what they wanted to release. It's just that what they wanted to release was as much about preempting their rivals' strategies as it was about releasing a viavle product (or even more so). They wanted to win the market, but they were desperate not to lose it.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#303

Post by sajithdilshan »

cortesoft wrote: post #214
Silamoth wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t “need” any LLMs to do software development. Plenty of us were productively writing code for years before these models were released, and many of us continue to do so. The “AI” companies want to sell you hype. But you don’t “need” them - not if you’re a legit, professional programmer.

I have been programming for 35 years and a professional programmer for 25 years. Of course I don't NEED AI to program, because I did it before. This is completely unrelated to the how useful AI is for programming or how much more efficient you can be with it. I never said you would need AI to do things you can do today. When I said it will not be 'all you ever need', my point is that NEW uses will come that will need…

you sounds so angry, like an old man throwing a temper tantrum. Nothing you said makes sense

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#304

Post by sillywalk »

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #236
Someone wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn’t Apple potentially under a lot of pressure due to the DRAM prices Maybe. On the one hand, if there is a strong ceiling to what users are willing/able to pay for a smartphone (might not be true, with all those people making $$ on the stock market), they will have to cut prices. On the other hand, if one part gets more expensive, premium phones need smaller relative price increases than budget phones. Certainly,…

Apparently RAM and SSD costs have risen so much recently that the bill of materials on the next iPhone could exceed the entire cost of the current one just on RAM/SSD alone [1] [1] https://images.macrumors.com/t/PtKleXF2po_g3qSuA6VMOE90WEM=/...

Interesting. If it's accurate, Apple sure has a nice markup.

Side note: I wished they'd chosen more distinctive colours for the charts.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#305

Post by 59percentmore »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #170
59percentmore wrote: post #27

His read on the Apple Vision Pro (both the circumstances of its creation and its path forward) are incorrect in quite the discouraging manner for me. AVP wasn't released early (late, if anything), and it wasn't a dud because of Tim Cook's disinterest. I also think it's irresponsible to not broach the obvious implication of "PC components becoming prohibitively expensive" + "untold amounts of compute sitting in comput…

Agree. Apple Vision Pro was a dud because the whole VR category is a dud. People are starting to kinda hate tech. People don't seem to be looking for yet another "smart manacle". Time to move on.

VR can be transformative, if the people who work on it decide that they want to make something transformative, rather than a walled garden that they control and that exists primarily to harvest user data. But everyone seems dead-set on the latter.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#306

Post by sillywalk »

rbanffy wrote: post #213
bpavuk wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

64 GB! you are lucky :) sitting there with 16GB, a GPU that already shows the signs of strain, and AM4 Ryzen 5 5600G. (MacBook Air M1 equivalent in single-threaded tasks.) apparently the CPU requirements slowly crept up across the line. and then there is looming AVX512. why "looming"? because at some point enough people will move to it that software will require AVX512.

Maybe a year from now we'll all be using MI300As and EPYC 9600s to read e-mails. Or Nvidia Veras, maybe AWS will sell some of their Graviton stuff in an effort to offset their capex. Unfortunately, I don't think IBM Cloud will suffer enough for me to play Tux Racer on my very own Z17.

> play Tux Racer on my very own Z17

Interesting. It looks like Debian has a Tux Racer package for Extreme Tux Racer on s390x. I guess it'd be remote graphics, and not accelerated.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#307

Post by 59percentmore »

KaiserPro wrote: post #119
59percentmore wrote: post #27

His read on the Apple Vision Pro (both the circumstances of its creation and its path forward) are incorrect in quite the discouraging manner for me. AVP wasn't released early (late, if anything), and it wasn't a dud because of Tim Cook's disinterest. I also think it's irresponsible to not broach the obvious implication of "PC components becoming prohibitively expensive" + "untold amounts of compute sitting in comput…

> AVP wasn't released early (late, if anything), and it wasn't a dud because of Tim Cook's disinterest. Depends on what you mean by early. WAs it released before the market was proven? yes. Was the whole user experience up to scratch before it was released? no. As someone who worked on the Quest pro/3 ecosystem, We were shitting our selves, because we knew that apple would only release something when the user experie…

>we knew that apple would only release something when the user experience was right.

And, as has been the case since the iMac release, they can only get the user experience right when others have done the important work of getting it wrong, a lot. But your company knew this, which is why they weren't seriously pursuing a cohesive, robust UX. Why go to all that trouble when Apple will just killsteal? The VR space as we know it today is a result of this almost-15-year-long-impasse; not a matter of technological capability, but market strategy to avoid getting BTFO of a space that everyone agrees will eventually pull a Switch on desktops and smartphones.

As another user pointed out, AVP was only released to appease investors who had dealt with more than half-a-decade of leaks indicating that "something" was "coming soon". There's only so many times you can bait-and-switch them. The AVP was the compromise to show that they were working on something, without really giving competitors anything.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#308

Post by sodapopcan »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #298
sodapopcan wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That, and he has numbers to back up the possible downfall. My issue with AI is how it's used in art and content generation. I resisted it for code for a while, but eventually came around. > FWIW I avoid AI shills and doomers myself and focus on developing my skills working with the technology. I did a bit of that but I'm no longer employed and have been taking a break from programming for a few months.

>he has numbers to back up the possible downfall. Those sorts of numbers apply to the common folk like you and me IMO. They do not apply to the billionaire class. They just don't. The CapEx play either pays out when the buildout is justified or it soft lands for them with a bailout like we just saw NVDA do today with OpenAI. No matter what, in the end, we'll be holding any bar tab in our retirement accounts if they'r…

> Those sorts of numbers apply to the common folk like you and me IMO.

Oh, I understand that. I'm not American, but I know I will still be affected if this all goes bust. I'm not in the best state of mind right now, though, and the thought of everything burning to the ground isn't really concerning me.

Also, interesting article. I was aware about plastics getting shipped to other countries but had no idea they were starting to refuse.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#309

Post by duhhhhh1212 »

simonw wrote: post #299
duhhhhh1212 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Strong DM. How is that different from tokenmaxxing? Because of the article you wrote, a few companies went to them and starting adopting their methods and guess what happened in a few weeks into that process? Upper management started tracking engineers who weren't using AI enough (~1k a day). A few engineers got fired because they were slow to adopt StrongDM's process.

Have you really seen engineers fired for failing to spend $1,000 on tokens a day because their bosses read my piece about Strong DM? https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/7/software-factory/ I would hope that my commentary on those patterns would be less likely to lead to bad decisions than if people just read Strong DM's own description of their software factory approach: https://factory.strongdm.ai/

> Have you really seen engineers fired for failing to spend $1,000 on tokens a day because their bosses read my piece about Strong DM?

Bruh, come on. Not directly is the best answer I have for that. Unfortunately, they didn't read your article carefully, because the idea of productivity gains was all the candy they needed to jump in the van.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#310

Post by bpavuk »

rbanffy wrote: post #297
bpavuk wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

actually I'm looking forward to that :3 but that requires Claude et al. going bust and HN is gonna kill me if I wish that publicly

I would also be very sad to lose one of my best coworkers. Everybody in the office treats Claude as their own assistant. Just today Claude reminded me I forgot to add a database zone migration to my fault-injection experiment. Not only he reminded me, he also implemented it with perfect consistency with project guidelines.

not worth 32GB RAM becoming unobtainium imo. what's use of Claude if Claude can't build the project on my machine?

and before you say "cloud IDE" or "Ona" or "GitPod", know that I'm going to draw the metaphorical revolver with a calm gaze. [1][2]

[1]: using Amazon listing for reference, the original author of this edit is unknown. https://www.amazon.co.uk/WENSHUI-Portrait-Painting-Posters-P...

[2]: I reposted it on bsky because I share it too often. https://bsky.app/profile/bpavuk.neocities.org/post/3mffdd5ud...

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