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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

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Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#151

Post by satvikpendem »

sajithdilshan wrote: post #138
skippyfish wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do think the valuations are quite and they would need to meet the reality, but don’t think there’s gonna be a crash or we’d ever go back to pre-AI era. It would more or less would be a correction to valuations. Something to consider: would your description also apply to the dot-com boom of the late 1990s? The internet was real, the ideas for internet business were real, and we were not going to the previous reali…

But there’s a difference between fearing mongering with a crash and a long term correction. The correction would make all the startups/companies that created a wrapper around frontier models go away, but the ones that truly solved a problem would remain. Also I remember reading that Anthropic is on its way to be profitable in 2028

That's exactly what a crash is, there's not much difference. For example that's exactly what happened in the dot com era.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#152

Post by whywhywhywhy »

59percentmore wrote: post #95
ghaff wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tim Cook was probably mostly disinterested because it didn't seem like a real business opportunity. Wherever AVP fell on the VR/AR spectrum, VR (while having other opportunities) was mostly a niche for high-end gamers and AR, whatever the possibilities in some future idealized form with fashionable glasses that give you lots of information about what/who you're looking at is a long way from reality.

I think it's the opposite. None of the players in XR wanted to be Apple'd, least of all Apple. That is, create a base product that someone else would refine in order to drink their milkshake. Apple delayed the AVP multiple times hoping to avoid getting sniped by Meta and Google et al., each time requiring a partial rebuild as the underlying tech advanced. They would have loved to have been able to get something out w…

Think Apple fell for the trap of assuming they would eventually solve the glasses form factor and then fell for the second trap of convincing themselves that passthrough VR was the same as their real XR vision.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#153

Post by robertoandred »

ghaff wrote: post #96
jandrewrogers wrote: post #51

That article is a bit incoherent. I think it is pretty clear at this point that Apple has gone all-in on being the ideal edge silicon for AI. This leverages their core competencies, requires only modest investment, and will likely pay out no matter how the AI market eventually shakes out. They are in one of the only parts of the obvious future AI market where there isn't really a fight for greenfield turf with other…

I generally agree. Xserve didn't work out for Apple and they dropped it pretty quickly--think I still have an A/UX coffee cup. Wasn't really in their DNA even if there was an argument before Linux took off. For better or worse, they're basically a client company and barely a software (OK and basically a software services) one--although they spend a fair bit on (roughly) user experience.

They sold the Xserve for ten years, across the PowerPC and Intel eras.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#154

Post by HAL3000 »

cmiles8 wrote: post #78

Apple looks better and better as every day passes. Other players going deeply into debt to build out massive infrastructure, VCs pumping up the model ecosystem that is now a total commodity. Apple’s just been sitting there with solid cashflow waiting for all this to implode and then have on-device models with their own chips. Apple will own the end device while the rest of the world is fighting over a pure commodity.…

Others are betting on AGI/almost AGI like system. It's a gamble because no one actually knows whether or when it will be possible to create it. But if their bets pay off, they could outcompete Apple. Basically, other companies are going all in on the next card, while Apple is holding back and waiting to see which cards are dealt.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#155

Post by satvikpendem »

Silamoth wrote: post #112
cortesoft wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an example I use Claude code heavily for every day development and Opus 4.8 was already good enough for my use cases and never used Fable. I think the flaw in this logic is thinking about how AI is currently used only. Yes, Opus is good enough for the task you are asking it to do, but that doesn't mean that is all you will ever need. As AI gets better and better, it will open up new use cases that require the be…

You don’t “need” any LLMs to do software development. Plenty of us were productively writing code for years before these models were released, and many of us continue to do so. The “AI” companies want to sell you hype. But you don’t “need” them - not if you’re a legit, professional programmer.

You could say this for any new technology though, it's a vacuous statement. No one needs a car, they can ride a horse. But step changes in technology do occur and raise the standard for everyone in a society, hence why we don't see horses for transportation anymore.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#156

Post by tptacek »

skippyfish wrote: post #148
sodapopcan wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, there are already three pure ad hominem comments here with no examples. Zitron isn't even anti-AI per se. He clearly talks out his ass at times (like AI doesn't work for developers... which he's not saying so much anymore, I don't think) but his main talking points are around numbers and profitability.

> Ya, there are already three pure ad hominem comments here with no examples. You should probably understand Thomas' comment in part as a reaction to Zitron attacking Thomas in a pretty low-brow fashion, essentially for saying "hey folks, AI coding works and you should be using it": https://www.wheresyoured.at/how-to-argue-with-an-ai-booster/ The bottom line is that Ed Zitron, like Gary Marcus, built their entire bra…

I swear to Christ before this comment I had completely forgotten that Zitron had ever written anything about me. Zitron isn't an engineer and doesn't code, so I'm not all that het up by his attempt to rebut me.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#157

Post by dan_gee »

bensyverson wrote: post #134
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't. They'll just pay more for the LLM. I use LLMs all the time, but I'm also a highly capable and experienced engineer that can definitely work without. I have just found that the LLM is a force multiplier, like I haven't had before.

Same, though the types of jobs I’m working on now require the speed I get from LLMs. If I had to take my current projects and switch to hand-coding I’d have to extend the timelines and practically add a zero to the price.

If you don't mind sharing, what types of jobs are you working on now?

I haven't personally seen a speed boost from LLMs, but my experience with them suggests that they could be effective in some domains and inadequate in others. E.G., I have observed that LLM tools are inadequate for generating C++ code.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#158

Post by sajithdilshan »

Silamoth wrote: post #112
cortesoft wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an example I use Claude code heavily for every day development and Opus 4.8 was already good enough for my use cases and never used Fable. I think the flaw in this logic is thinking about how AI is currently used only. Yes, Opus is good enough for the task you are asking it to do, but that doesn't mean that is all you will ever need. As AI gets better and better, it will open up new use cases that require the be…

You don’t “need” any LLMs to do software development. Plenty of us were productively writing code for years before these models were released, and many of us continue to do so. The “AI” companies want to sell you hype. But you don’t “need” them - not if you’re a legit, professional programmer.

You don’t need it, but using it would make you more productive. As an example, I have worked in a code base which is pretty much opinionated. I have many Claude skills to build the boiler plate starting code and tests for the feature I have to build following the existing conventions and patterns in the code base and that saves a lot of manual coding time for me.

This is a very personalised use case, but I think everyone can find these kind of use cases that saves a lot of time for you.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#160

Post by robertoandred »

sssilver wrote: post #41

I will never understand the decision-making process that led to "Let's build an awesome VR headset that can't do gaming". I would love to replace my monitor with Apple Vision Pro for programming and productivity. I would gladly pay $1000 for that. But at $4000 it really needs to put me in a Microsoft Flight Simulator cockpit.

Who said it can’t do gaming? All the regular graphics APIs are supported.
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