EU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.
HN continues its transmogrification in X.
Yeah the audience here has significantly shifted.
Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
171–180 of 198 posts
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#172If the golden stick of memory sitting on Trumps desk has its intended effect - and the US allow Apple to buy memory from CXMT then another 500% surge might happen.
Trump owns micron stock.
No way he's letting Chinese chips in.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#173Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.
It sounds like you have strong faith that if we can do in 100GB what we can do in 1TB today, 10x-ing our model size[1] from today won't be better?
[1]whether it is 10x in size, or maybe running 10x the models to have things like judges etc.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
No comment on the second part, but the first part is wrong. EU doesn't have a moat in process technology anymore (since 2010s). They have a bunch of legacy fabs, like 350, 180 and 130 nm but Taiwan, US, and China (and others like Israel, or Singapore) have these too. EU is severely lacking behind chip design, production and packaging capabilities for industrial, automotive, and space kind of niche applications since…
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I upvoted the post because they make a valid point and 99% is indeed factually incorrect hyperbole.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#175You would think that the DRAM shortage would propel Europe to invest in DRAM fabs. But no, they think it's too risky because prices may fall in the next few years and building fabs costs a lot of money and is hard. They'd rather sell other people's stuff than make it themselves.
Ergo, the Chinese will take this sector too without so much of a whimper from Europe.
In a couple of years the Chinese will own 25% of the DRAM market and make bumper profits akin to Big Tech. Europe's response will be to levy import tariffs to at least siphon off some money from it.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#176You would think that the DRAM shortage would propel Europe to invest in DRAM fabs. But no, they think it's too risky because prices may fall in the next few years and building fabs costs a lot of money and is hard. They'd rather sell other people's stuff than make it themselves. Ergo, the Chinese will take this sector too without so much of a whimper from Europe. In a couple of years the Chinese will own 25% of the D…
EU will regulate itself out of everything, sit, cry and complaign about devastated economy.
Noone votes for these ppl and stupid decisions they make destroy everyones lifes.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#177The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…
> Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better? The problem is, shareholders have bled Western companies dry in the chase for returns on investments. There is no money left in the companies to retool them to be competitive with China. Meanwhile, the CCP just pours dollars into their companies. Unfortunately, there is no punishment in Western societies if you run a company into the ground as long as y…
Private equity has mastered the art of running a company into the ground, hiding that fact, and handing the debt over to someone else. So there is no punishment even if your don't pay your debts.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#178The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…
Mostly self-inflicted wounds in form of climate pledges, climate taxes and such. Because of the goal to achieve zero emissions goal and climate neutrality, we abandoned cheap energy sources such as coal and pushed our heavy industries out of Europe to China. We still need those products, so we import them from China while wondering why European industrial segment isn't growing. Even in the clean energy sector, most s…
on the other hand, if those climate goals were stuck with, we could be just fine with $500 barrels of oil, and could just not-care about the middle east
solar and wind will always end up cheaper than coal because the fuel is free.
we certainly should be making our own solar panels and such, but we can get so much cheap electricity by building tons of renewables that that heavy industry can run in much-less-pollution fashions anyways
of course, having a liveable climate is up towards the most important things for having a good economy. france being 50C all summer isnt conducive to doing much of anything
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is actually at the core of our (EU) problem. Instead of thinking, "here is this new technology, how can we build new markets/products out of it", our industry leaders always think, "here is this new technology, how can we apply it to our existing industries". You can see it a lot in AI, right now. AI4industry is not where the gains are right now. We should be competing on training foundational models. Once the f…
There's no moat to AI models so it doesn't really matter who develops it first. If AGI happens none of it matters since it won't be controlled anyway. If there's an exponential wall then everyone will be at it within 12 months of the first person hitting it and then it's better not to have spent the cash pioneering the path. The long-term idea that the we have to compete claim is based on is like AGI and it's gonna r…
If you don't have the capability to train these models, then there's almost no chance of you having enough GPU power to run inference at a large scale on these models (assuming the weights for such a model are ever released or leaked in the future). And that's ignoring the fact that you won't have cultivated a sector that can continue to learn about and improve on said models.
Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
#180You would think that the DRAM shortage would propel Europe to invest in DRAM fabs. But no, they think it's too risky because prices may fall in the next few years and building fabs costs a lot of money and is hard. They'd rather sell other people's stuff than make it themselves. Ergo, the Chinese will take this sector too without so much of a whimper from Europe. In a couple of years the Chinese will own 25% of the D…
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