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Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

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Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#161

Post by fooker »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #158
fooker wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm claiming that the max amount of intelligence you get out of a 100GB model is unlikely to be that much lower than what you can get out of a 1TB model.

That depends on whether you can separate intelligence from memorization. I think we can agree that theres more than 1 TB of memorizable information in the world, even when highly compressed.

Sure, agreed.

The question then is, how much memorization is really needed for intelligence if you can query structured information?

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#162

Post by overfeed »

thenthenthen wrote: post #128
samrus wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the chinese government feels its critical to china's success then it will be backed like alibaba and wechat and others were

Jackie Ma of Alibaba was basically exiled for some time because he got cocky (and too powerful/rich?).

While hyping upcoming products from his conglomerate, he talked shit about the government (regulatory authority, more specifically), and he got hit.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#163

Post by overfeed »

amluto wrote: post #159
blitzar wrote: post #22

If the golden stick of memory sitting on Trumps desk has its intended effect - and the US allow Apple to buy memory from CXMT then another 500% surge might happen.

The reverse might be worse for the US in the long run. Right now, the US leads China in compute-heavy R&D because the US has access to more compute, and that compute has two components that China has limited ability to produce domestically: the GPUs themselves and the DRAM. A decent fraction of the balance of the plant is already produced in China. If the US refuses to buy Chinese tech, then we may find ourselves pay…

> If I were setting US policy, I would be trying to get the US-friendly companies to increase production and trying to encourage domestic production so that the US-friendly world can stay ahead.

That's what the CHIPS Act was supposed to do, but it got neutered for partisan political reasons. The CHIP Act was already about a decade too late. US policy is inconsistent across administrations, and the beneficial moves usually made very late in the game, around the time second- and third-order effects of the bad decisions become unbearable.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#164

Post by overfeed »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #132
oblio wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue we've already hit the ceiling. Can you truly tell the different between SOTA models from 9 months ago and those from today? There are some improvements but they're mostly marginal. Plus there is a chance the actual scaling that matters is beyond our reach. Think instead of TB models, PB or ZB models. We don't even have that kind of information. Humanity in its entire history hasn't generated 1ZB of informat…

> Can you truly tell the different between SOTA models from 9 months ago and those from today On a task that corresponds to the benchmarks, yes absolutely.

> On a task that corresponds to the benchmarks, yes absolutely

The very definition of diminishing returns.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#165

Post by yieldcrv »

fooker wrote: post #130
yieldcrv wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just about small models, that’s only one part of evolution Some groups are baking models into silicone, Deepmind has an example, it gets 18,000 tokens/sec on Llama 3.1, not sure about parameter size

> Some groups are baking models into silicone While some other groups are baking silicone into models :)

Those are doctors fooker!

but yes misplaced e

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#166

Post by overfeed »

thephyber wrote: post #125
shevy-java wrote: post #13

The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…

The short answer is VW doesn't have the ability to compete with China's best EV car company on EV price, factory automation, or raw input (labor, electricity, metals) economies of scale. The complaining is to get politicians / regulators to prevent the Chinese EVs from being imported into their domestic markets. Chinese structural advantages: monetary policy, lower cost of living, better infrastructure (electrical an…

> And they mostly stole their technology from hiring Tesla factory workers to moonlight for them and share the design, technology, tooling, and RE the Tesla finished product.

Did they successfully steal Tesla's low-cost EV plans too? Using the traditional definition of "steal" (depriving the owner of their property.) The argument that all China is good for is stealing falls apart[1] the second Chinese products become superior (see battery chemistry).

Perhaps Tesla should pay Chinese EV designers and PMs to moonlight for them to shorten their model development cycles.

Domestic Chinese EV competition is fierce, if one can survive or thrive in that boiler, dealing with VW, Ford, or even Tesla is a cake-walk.

1. Nevermind the growing body of fundamental research papers published. An area the US is turning it's back on because some people are gassing themselves up on they idea they are intrinsically, and immutably great/superior, therefore there is no cost to wrecking stuff to "own the libs"

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#167

Post by yogthos »

fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

I'm looking forward to being able to buy CXMT chips for running SOTA models locally. :)

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#169

Post by yogthos »

thenthenthen wrote: post #128
samrus wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the chinese government feels its critical to china's success then it will be backed like alibaba and wechat and others were

Jackie Ma of Alibaba was basically exiled for some time because he got cocky (and too powerful/rich?).

Which is an objectively a good thing.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#170

Post by FLeXMurphy »

bgnn wrote: post #74
jdiez17 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU chip industry: best I can do is supply chips that are in 99% of industrial equipment and vehicles. Also supply the only machines in the world that enable leading edge lithography processes.

No comment on the second part, but the first part is wrong. EU doesn't have a moat in process technology anymore (since 2010s). They have a bunch of legacy fabs, like 350, 180 and 130 nm but Taiwan, US, and China (and others like Israel, or Singapore) have these too. EU is severely lacking behind chip design, production and packaging capabilities for industrial, automotive, and space kind of niche applications since…

[Redacted]
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