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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

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Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#261

Post by dan_gee »

dormento wrote: post #257
dan_gee wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO AGI is a bold-faced lie, backed by the age-old American fantasy of free labor. The whole concept seems quite ugly to me.

In other words, the AGI hype kinda depends on AGI never being achieved. Billionaires don't want the worlds fundamental problems solved overnight for a simple reason: there's no money in that.

Moreso what I'm trying to say is that AGI is a return to the eighteenth/ninetheenth century fantasy of slavery as a business model.

AGI means cruelty-free robot slaves.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#262

Post by bpavuk »

rbanffy wrote: post #213
bpavuk wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

64 GB! you are lucky :) sitting there with 16GB, a GPU that already shows the signs of strain, and AM4 Ryzen 5 5600G. (MacBook Air M1 equivalent in single-threaded tasks.) apparently the CPU requirements slowly crept up across the line. and then there is looming AVX512. why "looming"? because at some point enough people will move to it that software will require AVX512.

Maybe a year from now we'll all be using MI300As and EPYC 9600s to read e-mails. Or Nvidia Veras, maybe AWS will sell some of their Graviton stuff in an effort to offset their capex. Unfortunately, I don't think IBM Cloud will suffer enough for me to play Tux Racer on my very own Z17.

actually I'm looking forward to that :3 but that requires Claude et al. going bust and HN is gonna kill me if I wish that publicly

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#263

Post by Danox »

ghaff wrote: post #177
robertoandred wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They sold the Xserve for ten years, across the PowerPC and Intel eras.

Still, in the scheme of Apple stuff it was a failed experiment--even if a worthwile one.

It was worthwhile because in the end it taught them that they needed to do something like Apple Silicon. And hopefully the current memory fiasco will convince them that they need to take memory in house if they want to build what they need to build going forward.

I really don’t see any alternative long-term to not engineering and designing memory in house and collaborating with TSMC onshore in America.

Hopefully having an engineer from the Apple Silicon design group as the next CEO will pay off.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#264

Post by Danox »

whywhywhywhy wrote: post #97
jandrewrogers wrote: post #51

That article is a bit incoherent. I think it is pretty clear at this point that Apple has gone all-in on being the ideal edge silicon for AI. This leverages their core competencies, requires only modest investment, and will likely pay out no matter how the AI market eventually shakes out. They are in one of the only parts of the obvious future AI market where there isn't really a fight for greenfield turf with other…

Just feels like the Apple press/podcast circuit just keep trying to spin ways to frame Apples fumble of the AI era as some sort of savvy move.

When your competition is currently burning billions of dollars left and right, Apple refunding Google $1 billion and giving OpenAI zero dollars seems pretty smart to me, Apple‘s largest acquisition in their entire history is only three billion dollars that’s planning.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#265

Post by Danox »

rdedev wrote: post #164
awakeasleep wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read a little more of what he's written before you praise him, so you don't end up looking as dumb as I did. Ed may be right about some of his claims, but he is 100% a crank, and he makes so many incoherent claims I'd say that if he's right, it's in the nature of a broken clock.

If you want to dismiss him for being hyperbolic or under estimating the usefulness of AI go for it. If you are making the case that he is full of shit, please provide some actual evidence of his main thesis that AI companies are not going about this in any sustainable way

AI is going to be very useful going into the future. It’s just that it will just be incorporated into the existing programmers tool kit, and not the be all end all.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#266

Post by mgrunwald_ »

sd2ff wrote: post #211
mgrunwald_ wrote: post #80

Apple failed in their efforts to build their own models, but they got lucky. China is doing all the R&D for free and the whole thing turned out to be unprofitable anyway.

??? LOL WHAT. Actually the right framing is Apple hedged the risk by maintaining good relations with China. They did not need to take any of the risk.

But they actually took some of the risk trying to develop models for Apple Intelligence, and that attempt ended up as a meme. Do you really believe that was a strategic play?

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#267

Post by cloverich »

budsniffer952 wrote: post #141
cmiles8 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR wasn’t AI. As for the rest, they’re the only major tech company to not have a serious case of AI FOMO and dumping all their cash into that FOMO. Thats not an accident.

Yeah, VR was very clearly useless, and yet... Do you even know what FOMO is? The money is being spent in physical infrastructure, not the the metaverse.

I believe their argument is: What happens to the value of that infrastructure when the value of the models is commoditized or more specifically, when everyone can run the "Good enough" model on their phone or laptop, instead of on Anthropic/Spacex/Google/OpenAI owned hardware?

Its a fair one to make both ways imho. Clearly the compute is being used for value generating purposes. And also clearly higher tier models are becoming runnable on local hardware.

(edit) I think also a comparable argument could be: What happens to the value of all that infra when the model is so commoditized, that Apple can delegate the more compute expensive tasks to whichever service is the cheapest on that day? Is Anthropic still valuable if they need to drop the prices of their models by 10x?

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#268

Post by Danox »

KaiserPro wrote: post #75
hparadiz wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> He's a college drop out with no experience in programming or technology. I mean Zuckerberg is a drop out. zitron has been around since before flash was dead, more over hes worked in PR so like anyone with heavy involvement with c-suite, sales and journalism, you get a good nose for bullshit. That said, do I agree with his assertions? no not entirely. But. I suspect its a bit of an audience capture thing. He makes w…

Isn’t Steve Jobs a dropout and Bill Gates?? Maybe it doesn’t matter if you have a big wallet….

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#269

Post by jerhewet »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #237
nerevarthelame wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's some criticism: https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3mmhtcib3622i (see the full thread) I'm not qualified enough myself to judge Zitron's reporting, nor this criticism. But George Pearkes is a reasonably respected financial analyst.

I think both sides might be cherry picking the pieces that make their arguments the strongest - Pearkes has pulled out a few paragraphs, but there is a lot in Zitron's writing, so it's easy to select 6 bits you don't like/agree with or find fault with, but I'm not sure it undermines the rest. I actually think Zitron would be better off focusing on those deals where there is clearly something weird going on (SpaceX IP…

> picking a fight with the one company that actually seems to be trying to play

> it straight in this sector (Anthropic)

https://stephenfollows.com/p/what-just-happened-to-thenumber...

Search for "Anthropic crawls over 38,000 pages for every single visitor".

If they can't get their bots to work correctly, what makes you think Anthropic is doing anything else correctly?

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#270

Post by Danox »

roryirvine wrote: post #23

IBM stood on the sidelines of the dot com boom; their share price still halved in the resulting bust. HSBC didn't engage in the unwise practices that led to the great financial crisis; their share price still dropped by 75% in 2008. If the AI bubble does burst chaotically, then I'd expect all tech stocks to decline to at least some extent and for even the strongest survivors to remain in the doldrums for years (in th…

IBM is still around hanging on the lights are on, but they are a tech backwater in comparison to their past and I don’t think they’re gonna be coming back. They are just going through the long fade out. Similar to Xerox and Kodak.
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