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I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.
Is it though? He's more of a gushing torrent of anti-AI propaganda. He has an agenda too, it's just the opposite one.
> While people get some sort of benefit out of AI-generated code, these tools actually end up making them slower Curious that he references a METR study from July 2025, before the leap in model and harness performance towards the end of 2025/early 2026.
Edit: to be clear, I am talking about Ed’s contention that AI coding isn’t net productive.
HSBC didn't engage in the unwise practices that led to the great financial crisis; their share price still dropped by 75% in 2008.
If the AI bubble does burst chaotically, then I'd expect all tech stocks to decline to at least some extent and for even the strongest survivors to remain in the doldrums for years (in the cases listed above, the share price of both IBM and HSBC remained flat for almost a decade).
One logical gap in the SemiAnalysis 40x cost of tokens versus subscription: I don't know anybody actually maxing out their account limits.
Sure, if you're somehow always running stuff, you can max it out, but subscriptions like this allow people to max sometimes (or always), while others never come close to the max.
What is the average usage of subscribers? Only Anthropic and OpenAI know, as far as I can tell.
The future of AI would be on-device models which are as powerful as current frontier models and also I can imagine companies have their own deployments of inference of open weighted models for most of the use cases and use the frontier models for extremely niche or higher intelligence tasks.
As an example I use Claude code heavily for every day development and Opus 4.8 was already good enough for my use cases and never used Fable. Also note that I use AI as a tool to help with my work and I do not offload everything I have to do to AI in a single prompt
> While people get some sort of benefit out of AI-generated code, these tools actually end up making them slower Curious that he references a METR study from July 2025, before the leap in model and harness performance towards the end of 2025/early 2026.
Welcome to Ed Zitron. There is a reason this man doesn't heavily short the same companies he criticizes. Be wary of anyone that won't put their money where their mouth is.
yes, because in order to take a short position you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop, which is different from predicting that at some point it will
I also think it's irresponsible to not broach the obvious implication of "PC components becoming prohibitively expensive" + "untold amounts of compute sitting in compute warehouses with nothing to do because the AI companies that used to own them folded". You probably won't even notice when everything in Best Buy becomes a thin client.
I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.
Is it though? He's more of a gushing torrent of anti-AI propaganda. He has an agenda too, it's just the opposite one.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are good sources of well-argued AI skepticism, and then there's Ed Zitron.
At this point I have yet to hear a solid argument against his arguments that use half as much evidence as he does. That isn’t to say that he’s right, that’s just to say that while he gets creative in his phrasing numbers don’t lie and I haven’t seen anyone else present competing numbers that make sense. If anyone has them to the degree with which he provides them then please, by all means, I’m interested.
I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.
The entire internet is full of anti-AI discussion and a straight up disbelief in any chance of success. Implying there is a "gushing torrent" of pro AI narrative is bizarrely out of touch. We both know this isn't true.