I’m sure if we build a few more AI data centers the world will cool down and we’ll stop having all these fires. Just a few more GPUs ought to fix it.
> Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.
French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
361–370 of 394 posts
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#362Le Monde, very reputed French newspaper (NYtimes equivalent for France perhaps) says that it’s not the first time this cloud is seen in France [1]: (translation mine) > “What is happening right now is extremely, extremely unusual. Seeing a cloud this massive and reaching such an altitude above a wildfire is exceptionally rare,” the researcher explains. “During the Pedrógão fire [which claimed around 60 lives in Portu…
What is indicative of escalating climate catastrophe is indeed the intensity and frequency of those firestorms, not any lack of precedent for a cloud shape. But the really salient observation is how people individually and their social system as a whole react (or not). Debating the shapes of clouds points to a fundamental dysfunctional disconnect on multiple levels.
> Debating the shapes of clouds points to a fundamental dysfunctional disconnect on multiple levels.
No, it points to the HN community exhibiting the exact kind of neurodiversity that would be expected here. Specifically: an ability to compartmentalize, and to take interest in trying to be accurate about something less consequential, purely for accuracy's sake.
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#363Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What is indicative of escalating climate catastrophe is indeed the intensity and frequency of those firestorms I don't think we have the data that proves this theory (which of course doesn't mean that the theory is wrong), because the vast majority of these fires are man-made, not natural disasters. This year's Fontainebleau wildfires were caused by 1) a deranged person ligthning bushes and drenching them with fuel…
Ah, would the world not be full of so many simple-minded people, we'd all be free! [edited out things that were badly worded] Wildfires being incited by arsonists don't contradict climate effects, neither would an increase in arson. But it's important to point out arson instead of ignoring it, even more so when the situation is dangerous. Agreed. It's just also important to do research on the environment that sustain…
What is with this snark? Why do we assume that everyone who says anything even slightly challenging to the narrative directly blaming climate change, is aligned with pro-fossil fuel interests?
Instead, why not, for example, show the model of what would have happened to the fire if the current weather in the region had been a couple of degrees cooler? (I mean, it's not as if we can even do a ceteris paribus comparison to the stats on wildfires from pre-industrial times; there is way too much ceteris to paribize.)
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#364Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The main reason the forest is burning is global warming. I get where you're coming from but I don't think this is helpful. Everyone with any sense knows global warming will cause heatwaves and they increase the risk of fires, but nobody in France can do anything about it. Even if everyone in France would do everything they can to stop global warming starting tomorrow, it would change nothing. It wouldn't help even i…
>Everyone with any sense knows global warming will cause heatwaves and they increase the risk of fires, but nobody in France can do anything about it. Even if everyone in France would do everything they can to stop global warming starting tomorrow, it would change nothing. It wouldn't help even if they got all of the EU on board. You are falling for the voting fallacy: "my vote had a miniscule effect on the final res…
>You are falling for the voting fallacy
>See also: collective action problem.
I think you misread me - I'm not saying "Don't try to stop global warming", I'm saying "Don't focus on global warming when there is a forest fire".
The nation of France has a decent chance of preventing forest fires within their borders, but it won't happen by subsidizing electric cars or buying carbon credits. It will happen by adding firefighters, fire trucks, better training and such.
I'm not saying one thing has to exclude the other, but in this case they are competing for some of the same money.
Carbon credits and big conferences to discuss Paris agreements could pay for a *lot* of firefighters.
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#365Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ah, would the world not be full of so many simple-minded people, we'd all be free! [edited out things that were badly worded] Wildfires being incited by arsonists don't contradict climate effects, neither would an increase in arson. But it's important to point out arson instead of ignoring it, even more so when the situation is dangerous. Agreed. It's just also important to do research on the environment that sustain…
What is with this snark? Why do we assume that everyone who says anything even slightly challenging to the narrative directly blaming climate change, is aligned with pro-fossil fuel interests? Instead, why not, for example, show the model of what would have happened to the fire if the current weather in the region had been a couple of degrees cooler? (I mean, it's not as if we can even do a ceteris paribus comparison…
I am not capable to assess the direct effect of CC on the probability of this disaster.
I question what is the value or helpfulness of continuing to doubt scientifically proven facts. The summer heatwaves and other natural disasters have increased enough in my lifetime to witness it, but even if that wasn't the case,
I consider dismissing widely accepted scientific results using words like "simple-minded" as pretty much the definition of snark.
As a reflection on my original comment (I depend on fossil fuels myself, like we all do):
Of course, shortening the reasoning enough, attributing any weather event to climate change, or even the climate alone, is impossible. I don't like beligerent simplifications myself. But that's why the quoted sentence in the original comment is about frequency, not just this particular wildfire season. At least that's what I thought.
The mechanisms of the short-term disruption of the Earth's climate due to greenhouse gas emissions and habitat destruction are more and more well-understood, as far as I know, though.
All reports that I read have phrasing that states the problems of climate attribution carefully, often including a paragraph about the importance of wildfires for the natural cycle.
In my opinion, claiming that not dedicating the problems of climate attribution at least 3 paragraphs in every report on a natural disaster that mentions climate change, is short-sighted (to use a different word).
In statistics, you can always play devil's advocate.
If Europe would be covered in ice in 50 years, there would probably still be someone claiming "see, there's no such thing as global warming!"
I explicitly mentioned arson as relevant to balance my point, but my patience ran out at some point. It is important.
And climate change is at least as important.
I don't read attempts at attributing natural disasters to climate change as "direct" or "simple-minded". I think the science has surpassed this point about 50 yrs ago.
Have a nice day. I tried to edit out snark and hate it every time I get into such a discussion at all. But I also am at least irritated by climate-denialism (or feel a tendency towards it).
It's a terrible word, there should be a better one, but I don't think "climate science skeptics" cuts it...
I get into such discussions too often because I see us depending on fossil fuels, for the foreseeable future. As well as on water, housing, food, etc.
Related: Dust Bowl, a good, recent enough example of man-made large changes causing (albeit local) climate change. If I'm not mistaken. Fascinating topic.
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#366The situation in Bordeaux right now feels close to apocalyptic. I left yesterday. Two hundred thousand people are evacuated, hundreds of homes destroyed, and the fire about 10 miles from the edge of the city.
These train workers in northern Ontario had an intense view of a wildfire up close. I would have freaked out. They're acting like there's a cute animal on tracks. see https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/train-cab-wildfir... [edit] other video links in case the first link isn't viewable outside Canada. see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwc16INKNq0 or https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qAerRqQQHAM
This video is so insane. They're in a combustion engine. I can not fathom why they survived let alone managed to drive out of this. Trains are not build for fire resistance.
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#367Earlier quoted context omitted.
Geoengineering proposals spring from the same impulse as climate denial — anything to avoid consequences for those contributing to the crisis.
Is this about some kind of sense of "justice", or is it about solving the problem ?
Geoengineering proposals are often unserious because the point is to give the appearance of doing something while the root cause goes unaddressed. "No need to reconsider those fossil fuel subsidies because [fanciful geoengineering proposal] will save the day!"
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
Everyone needs to remember those who were deniers and followers of them Never let them live this down
Yeah, lets not forget Bush sr switching from advocating action against climate change to enforcing inaction on the political pretence of protecting jobs. https://sk.sagepub.com/ency/edvol/globalwarming2ed/chpt/bush...
I sometimes wonder what the world would look like if all the cash burned in Afghanistan and Iraq was instead used to combat global warming.
As a plus, it would have likely left the US in a better place than having fought these wars!
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#369Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is with this snark? Why do we assume that everyone who says anything even slightly challenging to the narrative directly blaming climate change, is aligned with pro-fossil fuel interests? Instead, why not, for example, show the model of what would have happened to the fire if the current weather in the region had been a couple of degrees cooler? (I mean, it's not as if we can even do a ceteris paribus comparison…
I am not capable to assess the direct effect of CC on the probability of this disaster. I question what is the value or helpfulness of continuing to doubt scientifically proven facts. The summer heatwaves and other natural disasters have increased enough in my lifetime to witness it, but even if that wasn't the case, I consider dismissing widely accepted scientific results using words like "simple-minded" as pretty m…
> I question what is the value or helpfulness of continuing to doubt scientifically proven facts.
And I question why you believe that anyone here did doubt them.
> I consider dismissing widely accepted scientific results using words like "simple-minded" as pretty much the definition of snark.... In what world is calling climate attribution "simple-minded" not snark?
That is not what happened. The term "simple-minded" was not used to describe "scientific results" of any kind, nor the underlying scientific theory, nor any scientist involved. It was used to describe someone who carelessly started the fire.
Re: French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
#370Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I repeat here a thousand times that you’re wrong and we should focus on the effects of climate change and not the deniers will you believe me then?
Then focus on effects of climate rather then trying to make the rest of us shut up.
The likelihood of me getting you to focus on the effects on climate change are much higher than you convincing some lunatics. So I try not to shut you up, I try to funnel your energy. We both have the same ultimate goal.