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Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

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Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#131

Post by fooker »

raincole wrote: post #20
fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

And by the time the models that require 1TB memory will be better. It's like people saying mobile chips are going to be better than PC chips... until they realize PC can be made of mobile chips too if that comes true.

No, it's like saying a chip that consumes 500W is going to be better than a chip that consumes 200W.

This used to be true for the first several decades of microprocessors, and stopped being true in the early 2000s.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#132

Post by xyzsparetimexyz »

oblio wrote: post #72
sureglymop wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget that it's only an assumption that scaling more results in better models. There may be a ceiling to that. If that is hit and the best performing possible model can run in little VRAM, your argument here doesn't hold anymore. In a way it is actually the same thing that makes us accept AI as working in the first place. It only needs to be good enough for human perception. The same is probably true for compu…

I'd argue we've already hit the ceiling. Can you truly tell the different between SOTA models from 9 months ago and those from today? There are some improvements but they're mostly marginal. Plus there is a chance the actual scaling that matters is beyond our reach. Think instead of TB models, PB or ZB models. We don't even have that kind of information. Humanity in its entire history hasn't generated 1ZB of informat…

> Can you truly tell the different between SOTA models from 9 months ago and those from today

On a task that corresponds to the benchmarks, yes absolutely.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#133

Post by fwip »

Mainan_Tagonist wrote: post #80
Schlagbohrer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's this. Wall Street won't allow american companies to make long term decisions and long term planning that cost money in the short term, because they want all that money immediately now. Like, right now now. If an executive promised they could deliver big profits in 5 years by spending the next two investing their profits, Wall Street would fire them and put in someone who will happily spend all the profit (plus d…

The stock market works that way, it's true. But what about SpaceX, Blue Origin... there are also counter examples that show it is possible for investors to wait out the big profits.

I don't believe either of those two companies have ever been profitable. (I'm sure Musk has some accounting tricks to make it look that way, though.)

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#134

Post by fooker »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27
fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

I'm claiming that the max amount of intelligence you get out of a 100GB model is unlikely to be that much lower than what you can get out of a 1TB model.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#135

Post by tigershark »

jonkoops wrote: post #112
Tade0 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't make me tap the sign that says "ASML". Difference between Europe and the others is that it doesn't brag nearly as much.

ASML doesn't make chips.

Nobody makes state of the art chips without ASML

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#136

Post by kcb »

EarthMephit wrote: post #92
xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

I haven't tried it, but colibri is meant to allow running GLM 5.2 the 744B model in 32GB by using prefetches and streaming from fast SSDs. https://github.com/JustVugg/colibri

Terrible performance on $20,000 worth of GPUs.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#137

Post by cubefox »

Tepix wrote: post #59
cubefox wrote: post #38

> Once an affordable component used to build devices, memory prices have more than doubled in recent months - and are still rising. Is this accurate? It looks like they are no longer rising, at least for DDR5 memory: https://de.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/ Most of the price increase did occur in Q4 2025 and most prices are fairly stable since then. Maybe this is different for LPDDR, GDDR, or HBM, but I would…

Look at DDR5-6000, it clearly is rising again since June.

Still looks like a weak trend compared to the explosive price hike at the end of 2026.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#138

Post by shimman »

modo_mario wrote: post #57
altern8 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU: we should create a law regulating the viscosity of the glue being eaten

EU: Perhaps we should also spend a few billion on attracting american glue manufacturers so they open a factory and a half here so we can catch up in this chip making business.

EU: Our people generally live longer and happier lives plus our countries are some of the safest on Earth. Better throw that all away and follow the Americans into hell so our elites can make slightly more money!

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#139

Post by shimman »

Mainan_Tagonist wrote: post #80
Schlagbohrer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's this. Wall Street won't allow american companies to make long term decisions and long term planning that cost money in the short term, because they want all that money immediately now. Like, right now now. If an executive promised they could deliver big profits in 5 years by spending the next two investing their profits, Wall Street would fire them and put in someone who will happily spend all the profit (plus d…

The stock market works that way, it's true. But what about SpaceX, Blue Origin... there are also counter examples that show it is possible for investors to wait out the big profits.

Both those companies only can exist because of massive amounts of corporate welfare. What exactly are you trying to argue here? That the government should give private capital more of the people's money while the country suffers from lack of healthcare, childcare, education, and housing?

What's the point of this? Honestly?

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#140

Post by phatfish »

brianwawok wrote: post #89
CamelCaseName wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your example contradicts you. 2K, 4K, and 8K+ TVs have been around forever, and although 4K has become the norm, it's widely accepted that there isn't much benefit for most people above 1080p

Depends on distance and size, there is a lovely chart. My projector at 10 feet away is night and day difference at 4k. Mathematically 8k should look identical, so I haven’t spent the money to try it to confirm. The 1080p thing is true in the age of 40” TVs but not so much now, think Costco has a 95” TV if not 100”.

I can definitely tell the difference between 1080 and 4k on my 55inch at around the recommended viewing distance. Less so on a 42 inch. A 4k image will look good even on a projector, as you say.

Personally I think 4k (with HDR) is good enough for consumer use, so agree with the parent theoretically just not quantitatively.

It did take around 20 years from DVD to 4k Bluray though.

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