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Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

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Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#31

Post by Schlagbohrer »

raizer88 wrote: post #21
shevy-java wrote: post #13

The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…

Because the capitalist west doesn't have strategic view, beside maybe on the defense sector. Everything else must produce profits next quarter not in the next 3 years.

It's this. Wall Street won't allow american companies to make long term decisions and long term planning that cost money in the short term, because they want all that money immediately now. Like, right now now. If an executive promised they could deliver big profits in 5 years by spending the next two investing their profits, Wall Street would fire them and put in someone who will happily spend all the profit (plus debt) to do stock buybacks and dividend disbursals.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#32

Post by dist-epoch »

fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

Even if we do, we are going to need a lot of RAM for the billions of agents running everywhere.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#33

Post by yieldcrv »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27
fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

It’s not just about small models, that’s only one part of evolution

Some groups are baking models into silicone, Deepmind has an example, it gets 18,000 tokens/sec on Llama 3.1, not sure about parameter size

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#34

Post by dist-epoch »

shevy-java wrote: post #13

The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…

It takes 2 years in EU to get approval to build a shed. Imagine how long it takes to get approvals for a chip factory which uses a lot of water and very toxic chemicals.

UK has been trying to get approvals for a new runway at Heathrow airport for over 20 years !!! now.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#35

Post by londons_explore »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27
fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more.

Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#36

Post by clbrmbr »

fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

Are you thinking of fundamental architectural changes (like the Transformer)? Or incremental (like MoE or GQA)? Are there specific neolabs or techs you are following that lead you to this prediction?

Indeed it seems quite possible we are one architecture breakthrough away from existing chip stock driving us all the way to ASI.

Nobody has done AFAIK the information theory to prove it’s not possible.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#38

Post by cubefox »

> Once an affordable component used to build devices, memory prices have more than doubled in recent months - and are still rising.

Is this accurate? It looks like they are no longer rising, at least for DDR5 memory:

https://de.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/

Most of the price increase did occur in Q4 2025 and most prices are fairly stable since then. Maybe this is different for LPDDR, GDDR, or HBM, but I would like to see evidence for that.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#39

Post by pingou »

VulgarExigency wrote: post #29
feverzsj wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's driven by the supreme leader's grand plan, like everything else there.

Seems to be working out better than leaving it up to the market

Why does the US stock market keep having record years while the population doesn't seem to benefit, whereas the opposite is happening in China? Isn't that a failure of US capitalism?

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#40

Post by t-sauer »

londons_explore wrote: post #35
xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more. Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.

Your example also counters your point: A lot of people do not care about 4k, and even less do care about 8k or above. We reached a point where most people are completely happy with the quality they get.
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