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Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

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Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#51

Post by sureglymop »

londons_explore wrote: post #35
xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more. Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.

Don't forget that it's only an assumption that scaling more results in better models. There may be a ceiling to that. If that is hit and the best performing possible model can run in little VRAM, your argument here doesn't hold anymore.

In a way it is actually the same thing that makes us accept AI as working in the first place. It only needs to be good enough for human perception. The same is probably true for compute.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#52

Post by whazor »

fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

Yeah, you can directly print the SOTA AI model on the chip. I also believe this can be done on older process nodes. The most important factor would be speed. How fast can you go from new model to new chip?

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#53

Post by fragmede »

Schlagbohrer wrote: post #30
rokkamokka wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the effects of TSLA dropping to reasonable levels (a drop of about 90%) would look like.

Morgan Stanley said that SpaceX's space activities are only worth $8 per share...

Morgan Stanley's target price for SPCX in their report is $300, with $8 being the space component, and the $292 being everything else, like what actually gets put into space. The Morgan Stanley report doesn't say SPCX is worth $8/share. Just wanted to be clear and not have a conversation based on vague implications.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#54

Post by chii »

glimshe wrote: post #2

I have nothing to say about this company's long term potential, but I'm curious to know whether this will become an enormous "tik stok" like SK Hynix became in South Korea. I've watched a short documentary about the investment mania in SK and it's really scary.

> the investment mania in SK and it's really scary.

i mean, it shouldn't be scary, because their failure is their own, and i doubt there would be collateral damage outside of those high risk investors.

It's scary for _them_, but it's an interesting case study for an outsider.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#55

Post by bildung »

raizer88 wrote: post #21
shevy-java wrote: post #13

The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…

Because the capitalist west doesn't have strategic view, beside maybe on the defense sector. Everything else must produce profits next quarter not in the next 3 years.

It's even worse, the entire ideology is that industrial policy can't, by definition, be better than what the market would decide without interference. So every kind of actual strategic decision making (i.e. investing a few hundred billions in the industries of importance for the next decade(s), or at least in the infrastructure supporting it) would actually make matters worse. That is essentially what neoliberalism is all about.

This is core reason why the German industry became so irrelevant in the last 2 decades: The rail infrastructure became pseudo privatized and now is in shambles (IIRC only about 60% of trains arrive on time). The PV industry was axed by the conservatives about 15 years ago and now is completely dominated by China. Even now, as the other EU countries demand strategic investments - and again the German conservatives say this ought to happen without any new debt. "We can only spend what we have", to quote Merz. Imagine China saying this about chip production, or even Sam Altman about compute hardware...

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#57

Post by modo_mario »

altern8 wrote: post #24
jonkoops wrote: post #7

EU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.

EU: we should create a law regulating the viscosity of the glue being eaten

EU: Perhaps we should also spend a few billion on attracting american glue manufacturers so they open a factory and a half here so we can catch up in this chip making business.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#59

Post by Tepix »

cubefox wrote: post #38

> Once an affordable component used to build devices, memory prices have more than doubled in recent months - and are still rising. Is this accurate? It looks like they are no longer rising, at least for DDR5 memory: https://de.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/ Most of the price increase did occur in Q4 2025 and most prices are fairly stable since then. Maybe this is different for LPDDR, GDDR, or HBM, but I would…

Look at DDR5-6000, it clearly is rising again since June.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#60

Post by anon373839 »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27
fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

So far, frontier capability keeps getting shrunk to fit consumer level hardware. The lag time being over a year, though, precludes this from being called SOTA by the time it arrives.

There must be a limit, I agree, but there have been no signs of approaching it yet. The most recent cohort of small models have shown the biggest leap in capability so far.

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