Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Strongest El Niño Ever

theclimatebrink.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 370 posts

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#281

Post by liquicity »

throw310822 wrote: post #62
buybackoff wrote: post #21

I've seen dozens of videos and articles about this strongest ever event. And I still have no clue if the next year I should evacuate from Paris for the summer because heatwaves may be even crazier than this year, or prolonged heavy rains are more likely and can make the city more livable.

I've got an excellent overview of consequences from Claude Opus 5. I'd post it here but there's a "no AI content" policy, so sorry, you need to ask yourself. (Though for Europe specifically, apparently very little except for higher average temperatures).

What's worse than an AI generated comment... a comment about having generated an AI comment that you can't read!

If it's useful to the conversation (and objective + with sources) post the key findings - IMO I think it's AI generated prose / subjective posts that will get blasted.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#282

Post by ricardobayes »

otherme123 wrote: post #108
tshaddox wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t see anything meme-like in the comment you responded to. Or even anything related to environmentalism. To me, it just looked like good health advice.

In case you don't know, there is a meme in the US that Europe don't know/don't have A/C. We do, but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit when entering a building like a musseum, leaving with the impression we don't know A/C. No general A/C might be the case in regions that never needed it before (mild summers, cold winters), but the…

I just toured Europe and none of the lodgings (private dwellings) had AC. It was not fun when it was 35C out. South of Spain is actually one of the most comfiest places to be in summer despite being hotter on average, because many homes have AC due to it being cheap to install (and to my knowledge being run on near complete renewable energy).Some European countries' stance on this is bizarre, like Switzerland outright not allowing residential ACs.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#283

Post by ricardobayes »

otherme123 wrote: post #267
tshaddox wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm well aware of the memes and discourse on Twitter (although I don't seek it out). My point is that that original comment had none of that. No calling people "europoor." Just important advice delivered unsensationally.

To me, it sounded a bit "euro-A/C-ignorant" meme, but maybe I am on the receiving end and thus slightly oversensitive, because El Niño is not scientifically linked to any climate effect in Europe. It is known to cause effects in North America from Canada to Mexico, whole South America, Australia, South and East Asia, and South of Africa. Why it might sound as an attack to an european? Europe is "first world" and has…

It's an extreme taboo topic to discuss but I suspect it's going to be a slow fix if at all: society kind of stops functioning at its best when people live until 90 or 100, and spend decades on pension, disrupting inheritance chains when people "need" them: most Europeans inherit apartments but what good does it do if you inherit in your late 60s? The reality is for most of European history, people inherited in their 40s and got their "big, family apartment" that way.

Also, healthcare spend is really spent mostly on elderly: if you look in any given doctors waiting room, people tend to be old.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#284

Post by myaccountonhn »

akamaka wrote: post #205
CGMthrowaway wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are doing a lot. Almost 90% of electricity capacity added last year was renewables. Nearly 1 in 3 cars sold are now EVs. The world is spending over $2 trillion every year on low‑carbon energy investment. Solar and wind have already avoided more than 2 gigatons of C02 being added to the atmosphere. In the US, the IRA will drop emissions 40% to below 2005 levels. What do you mean we are doing very little?

I’ve had the same discussion with many people, and when I tell them how much work is done on cleaning up carbon emissions, the reply is always “well… it’s not enough”. And of course, they don’t have a sense of what is “enough”. They don’t really understand it in a factual, measurable way, but just are interesting in what the overall story is, and what it says about humanity failing.

Both can be true: we are doing a lot, and it's not enough.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#285

Post by ricardobayes »

jordanb wrote: post #173
puttycat wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that both sides have a point. European countries (notably France) have known for at least 30 years that this was coming, but was ideologically insisting not to install proper AC or even ventilation in public spaces and transport. This does not contradict the wider angle about Americans ignoring climate change.

> ideologically insisting not to install proper AC or even ventilation This is not supported by facts. People won't spend money on equipment they don't need. Most places in France do not need air conditioning (or did not need it). It makes no sense that a building owner or transit agency would spend limited funds on something that they do not need. One may argue that the government of France should have imposed some…

It's not the gist of your comment just mentioning that if you never open your windows for fresh air, CO2 levels can quickly rise and impair cognitive functions including ones for strategical decisions.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#286

Post by myaccountonhn »

asats wrote: post #109
dredmorbius wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth trend matters more than absolute present value. Data centres generally had been seeing energy use growing at 12% annually, or with a doubling time of 5.8 years (about 5 years 10 months). AI is accelerating that trend. In the United States, power consumption by data centres is on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. Driven by AI use, the US economy is set t…

>or with a doubling time of 5.8 years So that in ~6 years they will account for 1%, and still a fraction of the percent of the world total energy use?

1% is a lot.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#287

Post by ricardobayes »

mancerayder wrote: post #201
jordanb wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ideologically insisting not to install proper AC or even ventilation This is not supported by facts. People won't spend money on equipment they don't need. Most places in France do not need air conditioning (or did not need it). It makes no sense that a building owner or transit agency would spend limited funds on something that they do not need. One may argue that the government of France should have imposed some…

It's not just that France isn't installing them. It's that laws prevent installing them, and laws keep offices and schools warm on purpose. The prevention comes to play with massive restrictions around visibility of the units on facades in order to preserve character of apartment buildings and beauty. In some cases these can apply to private homes, too. Additionally you have the copropriété, where you need the majori…

Ah yeah, my grandparents never used AC even in the car. They just cruised with windows down even in the height of summer: they had the most bizarre ideas that it was somehow "bad for the heart". But cooking with lard was okay for them and it was "healthy".

At least in Germany you have a right to install an AC and the community can't say no. Even if they do the courts can overturn that decision.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#288

Post by konart »

otherme123 wrote: post #108
tshaddox wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t see anything meme-like in the comment you responded to. Or even anything related to environmentalism. To me, it just looked like good health advice.

In case you don't know, there is a meme in the US that Europe don't know/don't have A/C. We do, but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit when entering a building like a musseum, leaving with the impression we don't know A/C. No general A/C might be the case in regions that never needed it before (mild summers, cold winters), but the…

>but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit

To be fair - cold air hit (I'm talking about big gaps betweet temperatures) is pretty bad for you.

Ideally you don't want the temperature in a room to be (immediately) lower than T-5°C or so.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#289

Post by cromka »

wyclif wrote: post #240
cromka wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Europeans are more of nonconformists and could deal with some 7 to 10 super hot days in a year. It's now weeks in a row.

Europeans are more accepting of being sweaty during the day.

During a couple days in a year. Yes, that's the nonconformity I speak of.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#290

Post by ndsipa_pomu »

mhitza wrote: post #174
jordanb wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's clearly an op by people who don't want the story to be about a historic heatwave ravaging Europe, so instead they make it about dum Europeans without air conditioning (which they didn't need before).

That's an uncharitable interpretation of the initial comment. It can also be read as health-sensible reminder given the climate warnings. AC units demand is already up 26% year over year in my country (according to our biggest online retailer, a month ago). Will be a highly profitable year for manufacturers.

The problem with AC units is that they end up producing yet more heat, so whilst it may be "health-sensible" for the people inside, it's not so good for the people outside.
Post reply on HN