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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#341

Post by 3ff3 »

grim_io wrote: post #296
qwerpy wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact of the matter is that it drives reliably end to end. I don't care who's responsible or what it's called. I only care about the benefit it provides my family, which is immense. If it gets into a crash I know I'm responsible, but given that I consider it a better driver than I am now, this is an improvement over before.

I'm not going to tell you how you should keep your family safe, or not. It's just absolutely crazy to me that you trust this experimental feature more than the manufacturer does.

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#342

Post by 3ff3 »

simonw wrote: post #328
iLoveOncall wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think you are arguing in good faith here. Funny coming from a guy using Linus saying "There's no doubt AI is useful today" and interpreting that as "Yeah last year AI coding agents were garbage but now they're really useful". There's no denying AI is useful. I use AI, my project at work is all about using LLMs. They're even useful for coding, when I don't give a fuck about the quality of the output (which i…

OK, you won't except Linus. How about DHH, Max, Nolan, Steve, Mitchell, and those five HN commenters? Or to strengthen the case for Linus, here he is on June 16th 2926 saying: https://youtu.be/YKkEe-PxW10?t=1687 > we certainly saw more junk being generated by LLMs than we saw useful code up until the like early this year

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#343

Post by 3ff3 »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #164
the_gastropod wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been feeling gaslit about this too. Getting major “we’re still early!” crypto bro vibes from this constant goalpost moving.

The capex is still "early" for sure (i.e. data centers are still being planned and built out, we're hardware/energy constrained). If model scaling holds out, we're "early-ish" in terms of the reliability and performance of these systems, just based on utilization of the compute from the planned capex. If we hit hard diminishing returns and we don't find architectural/data workarounds, that would put a wrinkle in thin…

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#344

Post by switchbak »

chewbacha wrote: post #202
VladVladikoff wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My tinfoil hat says that this is what tech CEOs want. They want workers that are low skilled and can be paid less. My company is small, but my opinion at the moment is the opposite. Low skill workers don’t notice the flaws of what LLMs produce, I am no longer interested in hiring any juniors, as all they do is copy and paste LLM output without thinking, which anyone could do. It is the senior engineers who are most…

The issue would be that LLMs seem to not improve senior devs productivity. In which case what you are saying is “we shouldn’t use LLMs” Which I happen to agree with.

"The issue would be that LLMs seem to not improve senior devs productivity" - that's the opposite of what they said. And the opposite of my experience.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#345

Post by wolvesechoes »

Kiro wrote: post #263
TeriyakiBomb wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It tends to be when the training data wanders into their area of expertise temporarily and they go “OMG, they hype is real. I was so wrong” and then a few releases later they’re on the train and furious that the skills in their domain space have not just stopped improving, but regressed. Cue someone else in a different part of the world starting the same cycle. Meanwhile the guy who leaned in a year ago and gave up r…

> You can see these tropes all over social media near constantly. You should stop using social media as your yardstick.

> You should stop using social media as your yardstick.

Yes, don't believe people posting on HN.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#346

Post by wolvesechoes »

simonw wrote: post #328
iLoveOncall wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think you are arguing in good faith here. Funny coming from a guy using Linus saying "There's no doubt AI is useful today" and interpreting that as "Yeah last year AI coding agents were garbage but now they're really useful". There's no denying AI is useful. I use AI, my project at work is all about using LLMs. They're even useful for coding, when I don't give a fuck about the quality of the output (which i…

OK, you won't except Linus. How about DHH, Max, Nolan, Steve, Mitchell, and those five HN commenters? Or to strengthen the case for Linus, here he is on June 16th 2926 saying: https://youtu.be/YKkEe-PxW10?t=1687 > we certainly saw more junk being generated by LLMs than we saw useful code up until the like early this year

> How about DHH, Max, Nolan, Steve, Mitchell

Oh yes, dev celebs that rely on constant validation through social media. Very reliable source of data.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#347

Post by cmenge »

r_lee wrote: post #191
cmenge wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it's important who one hears this from. I just spoke to a fried who is a headhunter and who's been trying to automate his processes for a while (he likes to fiddle and certainly has skills, but he's not an engineer). He kept trying, but it just wasn't good enough. Now he said with GPT Work and Sol, it worked, but the key point is: all of it suddenly worked. The problem was one of reliability, of handling edge…

> I can focus on the candidate screening and acquiring projects, everything else is fully automated would a great candidate get excited about an AI agent reaching out to them? or would it be the desperate or clueless one?

If you're a high-end executive, people would not approach you directly but try to find a connection to you (which also serve as references).

For all other roles the first few messages are similar: this is with key challenges a,b,c. You seem to be a good fit because of d,e,f. Would you be open to explore this? This requires relocating to .

Traditionally, this was done by entry-level people. In either case, this isn't the person who will jump on a call with you.

"Desperate" and "clueless" seem very strong words here in reference to someone who gets actively approached from a recruiter.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#348

Post by wolvesechoes »

raincole wrote: post #6
simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

Any research on the impact of AI would have been lagging indicators. It's not the researchers' fault[0], but the nature of a field moving at neck breaking speed. Remember there was a paper saying programmers were 20% slower with AI? [0]: well...

> Remember there was a paper saying programmers were 20% slower with AI?

Key thing was not that they were X% slower, but that they were slower while being convinced they are faster. Of course, any analogies with the current hype cycle are completely unfounded.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#349

Post by keeda »

giantg2 wrote: post #203

Lol figure 3 shows copilot as being the highest task time savings when in my experience it is the most garbage.

I mentioned elsewhere (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49060382) but this is because it references a study from 2023, at which point Copilot probably was the most advanced AI-assisted coding tool.

The amazing thing is that these numbers are from the time where AI coding was basically "spicy autocomplete."

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#350

Post by satvikpendem »

qsera wrote: post #90
ben_w wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get the point having read much the same from Tesla (and fans) regarding self driving cars that still haven't done half the things that Musk said was just around the corner pending regulators a decade ago and repeatedly since then. And myself I keep making comparisons between AI and the progress in 90s video games where every minor improvement got called "photo realistic" and then forgotten with the next game engine…

>the mistakes are real but increasingly don't matter... I think it would start to matter once again. People will get fed up of AI posters and art. I think they already are...and once some threshold is crossed, the business won't dare to use AI generated assets/designs. Turns out humans are much better at recognizing patterns in stuff that is generated ONLY using patterns from human generated content.

It's the exact opposite. Humans will hedonically adapt to anything. If they see enough AI posters pretty soon they will start to not care, at least the majority, while some minority will disagree. We've seen this pattern many times, from data privacy and people still using social media, to using non free software.
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