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I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

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21–30 of 81 posts

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#21
post #16

I'll admit that I still see some value in prediction markets in theory, but in practice the way they were implemented seems to have caused an order of magnitude more harm. In retrospect their misuse as a loophole for sports gambling was an obvious outcome. Seems like every promising new technology inevitably is used for evil. Cryptocurrency is mostly used for criminals. Social media displaced more meaningful forms of…

> In retrospect their misuse as a loophole for sports gambling was an obvious outcome.

This isn't a 'benefit of hindsight' thing; a lot of people called this out in advance, just like all the other tech you listed.

We need to stop listening to the people who are wrong about everything, rather than pretending the maximalist seeking of profit with no regulation is a reasonable position. We know it doesn't work.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#22
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're consistently wrong, then it's time to stop being a thought leader, and really examine the lens through which you view the world. The author still thinks they were "freeing prediction markets from unnecessary restrictions", but clearly some restrictions are necessary, and totally free markets aren't actually an economic panacea. This is not really new information, so the flaw is in the thinker, not the data.…

You're mischaracterizing. He said that he helped build a case for it -- not that he still supports it. As far as I can tell, prediction markets went from totally illegal to basically unregulated. Presumably the author was arguing for a middle ground.

The author wrote their article--they had the chance to clarify their position. The facts remain: on multiple occasions, they have been instrumental in negative outcomes because of their support for things that we already knew were a bad idea. They should stop giving advice.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#23
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gambling isn't some brilliant new idea, even if you rename it. I understand the technical distinction trying to be made, but seriously, it's gambling. No one "bungled" anything. They just aren't being prosecuted..yet.

Sometimes gambling has some social value then. Isn't trading on the stock market gambling? Do you also support abolishing the stock market? What about issuing loans to someone with poor credit?

Day trading is gambling. Buy-and-hold is investing. Algorithmic micro-trading is investing, despite looking like gambling. It's about whether there's an immediate dopamine release or not.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#24
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes gambling has some social value then. Isn't trading on the stock market gambling? Do you also support abolishing the stock market? What about issuing loans to someone with poor credit?

Day trading is gambling. Buy-and-hold is investing. Algorithmic micro-trading is investing, despite looking like gambling. It's about whether there's an immediate dopamine release or not.

Properly regulated, couldn't the same distinction be applied to prediction markets?

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#25
post #12

>Trump Media may soon sell early access to the president’s Truth Social posts. Think about what this means. This is how the president announces war; every embassy on earth has to maintain a Truth Social account just to stay informed of American policy. He is already so beyond the pale this doesnt even move the needle.

If they try this, multiple random people will write bots to republish everything instantly. The cash gusher they expected will turn into a trickle and the white house will look like a bunch of greedy Ferengi that lack the lobes to pull off a basic swindle. It's guaranteed to be an instant loss. I'll laugh pretty hard if they go ahead with it.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#26
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're mischaracterizing. He said that he helped build a case for it -- not that he still supports it. As far as I can tell, prediction markets went from totally illegal to basically unregulated. Presumably the author was arguing for a middle ground.

The author wrote their article--they had the chance to clarify their position. The facts remain: on multiple occasions, they have been instrumental in negative outcomes because of their support for things that we already knew were a bad idea. They should stop giving advice.

Fair point.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#27

The author was instrumental in a colleague ruining their life through a gambling addiction. Then they helped make the case for prediction markets, which also went wrong. Their track record is not great, and I don't think they fully realise that the issue is them: the principles and axioms they rely on don't lead to good results. > I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America. Perhaps start by rever…

I don’t think we should hold a transaction worth $5 someone did as a teenager over their head as a dark mark on their character for the rest of their life

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#29
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And some things always are malicious, like "prediction markets", which is just gambling reworded to sound like something else. This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".

The uniquely problematic aspect of prediction markets is not really the personal aspects of gambling. There are plenty of speculative vehicles. The problem is it subverts natural incentive structures that society has evolved to reward, by introducing another incentive signal; one that sometimes can be many times bigger, thereby manipulating the natural, real-world, outcomes. If you were playing in the World Cup in th…

You're just describing the preexisting problems that led to bans and regulations on sports gambling.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#30
My position is that prediction markets are bad and harmful but so are all mainstream stock markets. They're all prediction markets. People collaborate to pump up the value of specific assets or contracts, leading to undesirable outcomes.

It would be dishonest to ban prediction markets without banning stock markets.

The best which can be done, under the current system, is to punish unfair information asymmetries, which is practically impossible to do reliably... And even if we could find a way to punish it reliably; what would happen is that most rich people would end up in jail. Information asymmetry is almost never fair and it's how people make big money these days.

I think the best solution is to create conditions to allow people to earn big money in other ways; ways which create value. If there were other ways to make big money besides unfair information asymmetry, then skilled people would find it easier to do that instead...

Unfortunately, skill/talent does not allow you to gain an information advantage; only social connections do. So the current system is really bad in terms of wasting specialized skills/talents... Current system takes talented people and re-orients them towards adversarial games of deception where they're just a number in a sea of increasingly desperate untalented people who are better at playing the deception game... And the talented folks eventually lose their talents through lack of practice; they're so focused on learning ways to trick people and algorithms, that their actual talents atrophy; by the time they become well known, if they ever do (most don't), they've become mediocre; corrupted by their participation in the process of trying to become relevant; their main talent always takes the back seat.

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