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I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

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Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#11

Post by fwipsy »

Planktonne wrote: post #4

The author was instrumental in a colleague ruining their life through a gambling addiction. Then they helped make the case for prediction markets, which also went wrong. Their track record is not great, and I don't think they fully realise that the issue is them: the principles and axioms they rely on don't lead to good results. > I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America. Perhaps start by rever…

Did you watch the podcast? I didn't, but I think it's unfair to judge the author's true position on prediction markets based only on the hook.

The current admin has bungled better ideas than prediction markets.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#12

Post by Fizz43 »

>Trump Media may soon sell early access to the president’s Truth Social posts. Think about what this means. This is how the president announces war; every embassy on earth has to maintain a Truth Social account just to stay informed of American policy.

He is already so beyond the pale this doesnt even move the needle.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#13

Post by fwipsy »

Planktonne wrote: post #9
Retr0id wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Finally a solution to being wrong - just invert all your opinions!

If you're consistently wrong, then it's time to stop being a thought leader, and really examine the lens through which you view the world. The author still thinks they were "freeing prediction markets from unnecessary restrictions", but clearly some restrictions are necessary, and totally free markets aren't actually an economic panacea. This is not really new information, so the flaw is in the thinker, not the data.…

You're mischaracterizing. He said that he helped build a case for it -- not that he still supports it.

As far as I can tell, prediction markets went from totally illegal to basically unregulated. Presumably the author was arguing for a middle ground.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#14

Post by avaer »

> Trump Media may soon sell early access to the president’s Truth Social posts.

Think about whether the spirit of the domestic/foreign emoluments clause would be okay with this. I'm sure some will argue there's enough layers of BS in this scheme that it's totally fine.

Ethics and judgement aside, I think startup founders can learn a lot from this administration as to how "successful" people twist things in their favor. The industry is full of it.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#15

Post by fwipsy »

jameskilton wrote: post #8
jdw64 wrote: post #3

People always assume that others will use something with good intentions, but in practice, malice tends to take root before goodwill does.

And some things always are malicious, like "prediction markets", which is just gambling reworded to sound like something else. This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".

Some people gamble by trading stocks. Should we also abolish the stock market?

Prediction markets are meant to be the stock market but for events besides the value of a certain corporation. They were co-opted as a thin veneer of legitimacy over deregulated sports gambling. The concept itself theoretically has some value, however insignificant compared to the damage caused by the current policy.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#16

Post by fwipsy »

I'll admit that I still see some value in prediction markets in theory, but in practice the way they were implemented seems to have caused an order of magnitude more harm.

In retrospect their misuse as a loophole for sports gambling was an obvious outcome. Seems like every promising new technology inevitably is used for evil. Cryptocurrency is mostly used for criminals. Social media displaced more meaningful forms of connection. We're already starting to see this with AI (psychosis, slop, assisting bad actors) but I'm afraid it will get much worse.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#17

Post by indoorfish »

fwipsy wrote: post #11
Planktonne wrote: post #4

The author was instrumental in a colleague ruining their life through a gambling addiction. Then they helped make the case for prediction markets, which also went wrong. Their track record is not great, and I don't think they fully realise that the issue is them: the principles and axioms they rely on don't lead to good results. > I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America. Perhaps start by rever…

Did you watch the podcast? I didn't, but I think it's unfair to judge the author's true position on prediction markets based only on the hook. The current admin has bungled better ideas than prediction markets.

Gambling isn't some brilliant new idea, even if you rename it. I understand the technical distinction trying to be made, but seriously, it's gambling.

No one "bungled" anything. They just aren't being prosecuted..yet.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#18

Post by im3w1l »

fwipsy wrote: post #15
jameskilton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And some things always are malicious, like "prediction markets", which is just gambling reworded to sound like something else. This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".

Some people gamble by trading stocks. Should we also abolish the stock market? Prediction markets are meant to be the stock market but for events besides the value of a certain corporation. They were co-opted as a thin veneer of legitimacy over deregulated sports gambling. The concept itself theoretically has some value, however insignificant compared to the damage caused by the current policy.

Restricting retail trading of derivatives and short positions doesn't sound like the worst idea.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#19

Post by tgma »

jameskilton wrote: post #8
jdw64 wrote: post #3

People always assume that others will use something with good intentions, but in practice, malice tends to take root before goodwill does.

And some things always are malicious, like "prediction markets", which is just gambling reworded to sound like something else. This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".

The uniquely problematic aspect of prediction markets is not really the personal aspects of gambling. There are plenty of speculative vehicles. The problem is it subverts natural incentive structures that society has evolved to reward, by introducing another incentive signal; one that sometimes can be many times bigger, thereby manipulating the natural, real-world, outcomes.

If you were playing in the World Cup in the lesser teams, very often betting+sabotage/plausible negligence would have been a more profitable enterprise for you than to actually do your best to win.

Stock markets have this problem too, but they are much more regulated, and even if manipulated by insiders, the blast radius is smaller and often auditable.

Re: I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

#20

Post by fwipsy »

indoorfish wrote: post #17
fwipsy wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you watch the podcast? I didn't, but I think it's unfair to judge the author's true position on prediction markets based only on the hook. The current admin has bungled better ideas than prediction markets.

Gambling isn't some brilliant new idea, even if you rename it. I understand the technical distinction trying to be made, but seriously, it's gambling. No one "bungled" anything. They just aren't being prosecuted..yet.

Sometimes gambling has some social value then. Isn't trading on the stock market gambling? Do you also support abolishing the stock market? What about issuing loans to someone with poor credit?
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