Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

english.mapn.ro

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 325 posts

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#281

Post by thingswecantsay »

ithkuil wrote: post #276
dragonwriter wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the country has to survive and recover rather quickly, not collapse, for your prosecution scenario to be likely and effective against any significant share of the people who caused this.

It's astonishing how many people really seem to think that total collapse / destruction of a system can be an effective way for fixing things

To respond to both you and the parent at once.

1. While dragonwriter's point is not entirely wrong, I also wouldn't say I agree either. Czar Nicholas was "prosecuted" quite rapidly after the russian revolution.

2. The problem, ithkuil, is if the population does not see any other way to effectively fix things. (System capture, pareto distributions, disenfranchisement, etc.)

As an aside, I created a new account for this vs. my normal because I've wanted to speak more openly than I can on a work-associated profile for a while now, I will be keeping this account lest anyone thinks it's astroturfing.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#282

Post by bluegatty »

themgt wrote: post #90

It's not World War 3. It's just two increasingly overlapping unsolvable wars involving two increasingly coherent geopolitical blocs consisting of dozens of countries spanning three continents, most major nuclear powers holding 95% of global nuclear stockpiles and the vast majority of global military spending and resources, with nuclear-capable cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles flying back and forth, attacks…

No, it's not that complicated - one country invaded another - that's it.

One is a nuclear power, so the reaction is not what it would be otherwise.

This is the same as Russia invading their neighbours like they have since Peter I.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#283

Post by bluegatty »

Waterluvian wrote: post #176
Insanity wrote: post #16

Given how poor their Ukrainian war is going, this is a strange move. I guess it’s mostly just posturing?

The logic I’ve heard is that one of the more palatable defeat conditions for Russia is that they’d rather lose to NATO than Ukraine. So they’re fine to push limits because even the worst case scenario gives them better options.

No - Putin believes he can win, this is to scare NATO.

He's not wrong - this is a war of attrition and Russia is about to raise 500K-1M soldiers - if they can do that, and keep Ukraine on their backs, it's possible Russia could break through.

Unlikely but possible.

Ukraine has difficulty recruiting and equally high desertion rates.

'Eventually something has to give'.

I think it's unlikely and that Ukraine will be able to hold out.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#284

Post by bluegatty »

an0malous wrote: post #7

Why are these drones so easy to shoot down, but the ones invading airspaces over nuclear bases and other sensitive installations hundreds of times for months all over Europe and the east coast of the US were never shot down or tracked even once?

Different types of drones.

These are Shaheds - big, slow, dumb, you can see the coming.

The one's over Europe were sneaky little FPV drones, like consumer grade ones, launched by FSB people nearby.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#285

Post by mcv »

CapricornNoble wrote: post #202
mcv wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Except that Ukraine is making the war extremely costly for Russia with the recent attacks on refineries and other targets deep into Russia. As long as the EU keeps supporting them, I think Ukraine will be better able to maintain the current situation than Russia. But Ukraine is nearly as exhausted as Russia, and I think a European coalition…

> Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Ukraine has been gaining some open fields, while losing major urban areas. Kostyantynivka just fell and Russian troops are securing the high ground overlooking the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk urban conglomerate. Pokrovsk also fell faster than expected, suggesting that Ukraine increasingly lacks the infantry manpower density to defend urban terrai…

> Kostyantynivka just fell

Has it finally fallen? Because Russia has been trying to take it for ages now, against staggering losses, and keeps claiming they control it when it turns out they don't. They do that a lot. Mostly because they desperately want to have good news to report to Putin. They are advancing, but incredibly slowly, and at enormous cost, and Ukraine regularly does take land back.

But you're absolutely right that Ukraine is short on manpower, unlike Russia which seems to have endless reserves of people to send to very rapid deaths. Ukraine is doing a lot to fill their manpower gap with drones, but their lack of manpower is exactly why I think Europe should come to their aid.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#286

Post by _DeadFred_ »

thingswecantsay wrote: post #281
ithkuil wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's astonishing how many people really seem to think that total collapse / destruction of a system can be an effective way for fixing things

To respond to both you and the parent at once. 1. While dragonwriter's point is not entirely wrong, I also wouldn't say I agree either. Czar Nicholas was "prosecuted" quite rapidly after the russian revolution. 2. The problem, ithkuil, is if the population does not see any other way to effectively fix things. (System capture, pareto distributions, disenfranchisement, etc.) As an aside, I created a new account for thi…

Yes, murder is easy after collapse. But murder is not a fix.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#287

Post by thingswecantsay »

_DeadFred_ wrote: post #286
thingswecantsay wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To respond to both you and the parent at once. 1. While dragonwriter's point is not entirely wrong, I also wouldn't say I agree either. Czar Nicholas was "prosecuted" quite rapidly after the russian revolution. 2. The problem, ithkuil, is if the population does not see any other way to effectively fix things. (System capture, pareto distributions, disenfranchisement, etc.) As an aside, I created a new account for thi…

Yes, murder is easy after collapse. But murder is not a fix.

That response disregards the thrust of my point, as well as the parallel to the famous quote "war is the continuation of politics by other means."

If a population does not believe they have more productive options, that is what will be left. This is often compounded when the existing powers have an easy time with murder BEFORE collapse, such that any moral prohibition would be hypocritical and self-defeating.

Let me be clear as well: I do not think Nicholas's murder "fixed" russia. I was precise in my wording, it was a form of prosecution previously unavailable to them. My point being that if things get bad enough, people care less about a long-term fix, and more about some semblance of recompense, and in some cases it may truly be the only option available to them to realize any concrete impact.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#288

Post by Sabinus »

paganel wrote: post #185
nesarkvechnep wrote: post #74

I hope they don’t send any to Bulgaria. Our PM is waiting exactly this to declare we’re joining the Russian federation.

> we’re joining the Russian federation. Based PM, from one of your neighbors just North of the Danube.

Why not just move to Russia yourself? Live under a strong traditional leader and culture.

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#289

Post by XajniN »

_DeadFred_ wrote: post #286
thingswecantsay wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To respond to both you and the parent at once. 1. While dragonwriter's point is not entirely wrong, I also wouldn't say I agree either. Czar Nicholas was "prosecuted" quite rapidly after the russian revolution. 2. The problem, ithkuil, is if the population does not see any other way to effectively fix things. (System capture, pareto distributions, disenfranchisement, etc.) As an aside, I created a new account for thi…

Yes, murder is easy after collapse. But murder is not a fix.

[dead]

Re: Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory

#290

Post by CapricornNoble »

mcv wrote: post #285
CapricornNoble wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Ukraine has been gaining some open fields, while losing major urban areas. Kostyantynivka just fell and Russian troops are securing the high ground overlooking the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk urban conglomerate. Pokrovsk also fell faster than expected, suggesting that Ukraine increasingly lacks the infantry manpower density to defend urban terrai…

> Kostyantynivka just fell Has it finally fallen? Because Russia has been trying to take it for ages now, against staggering losses, and keeps claiming they control it when it turns out they don't. They do that a lot. Mostly because they desperately want to have good news to report to Putin. They are advancing, but incredibly slowly, and at enormous cost, and Ukraine regularly does take land back. But you're absolute…

> They are advancing, but incredibly slowly

Their tactics have settled to extremely-small infantry infiltrations across almost the entire frontline. Warfare has evolved and concentrated mechanized assaults have been abject failures for both sides; it's far too easy to mass fires than it is to mass maneuver forces (see additional commentary (1) at the bottom). Russia's ground strategy is probably the least-risky way for them to keep pressure on the defenders and husband their own resources.

> their lack of manpower is exactly why I think Europe should come to their aid.

Be the change you want to see in the world: https://ildu.mil.gov.ua/news/how-join-armed-forces-ukraine

(1) Normally I would blame both air forces for lacking the capacity to systemically disrupt the defender at all depths.....but if we look at the Israeli aggression against Lebanon, the Israeli air force has total air dominance and their heavy mechanized forces are still struggling to advance. FPV drones basically quadruple the range of every ATGM team at 10% of the price.

Post reply on HN