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The Strongest El Niño Ever

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Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#141

Post by sdeframond »

euroderf wrote: post #126
3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in SoCal and am continually shaking my head at the architecture. So my floor-to-ceiling glass buildings in a climate known for sunny weather. So much extra air-conditioning will be spent to cool those buildings compared to if they had been built more reflective.

I'd try hanging long sheets of aluminum foil in too-large windows. I imagine someone in academia has studied this.

That works. A lot of people do that in their home when they have no other choice (renting the place, typically).

It'd be better to block the sun before it hits the window though, so that the window itself does not get hot and heat the inside.

Edit: people generally use emergency blankets, fyi. You can stick them to the glass with water.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#142

Post by simianwords »

polotics wrote: post #124
simianwords wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

oh you looked up 2126 on the Google did you? can you explain this verification process a bit more maybe? is it based on world3? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

these people (the model) predicted that Food per person peaks around 2015 hahaha. not only that, they predicted population would peak at 7 billion at around 2030.

there's a sort of person who would look at these false predictions and willingly not update, but instead move the goal post.

here's the reality: there's small subset of unfortunate people who still cling on to this model despite being demolished by reality. they are not the consensus fortunately - each field has some strange people believing some wild ideas. what's interesting is what the public chooses to side with.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#143

Post by spwa4 »

mort96 wrote: post #51
inigyou wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And by a sizable margin they mean maybe 4 degrees Celsius. Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario and we're currently about 1.1 degrees. All that warming that we caused but didn't actually happen? Turns out the ocean saves it up.

The 1.5C target (which, as others pointed out, is not an end-of-the-world scenario) is about average temperature above pre-industrial baseline across 20 years. The temperature anomaly of a single year has nothing to do with that; 2028 will likely be colder again. Average temperature moves in cycles. By confusing single-year temperatures with the 1.5C target, you're just going to make people think "crisis averted" onc…

Does that matter? The only thing that can be done, is for oil producers to stop digging up fossil fuels. And not even Norway is willing to do that, to say nothing about Russia or China, even this year. And that, not digging up the fossil fuel is the only way. If it's dug up, it will be burned. Guaranteed.

Oh and it effectively doesn't matter: to merely stop global warming we need 99.7% less fossil fuel production (and that needs to include everything from Saudi oil to Japanese coal)

So why would it matter? Because we feel it? We are not willing to implement real policy when we feel it. We are not willing to implement real policy when we don't feel it.

And geoengineering ... while it at least has the possibility for someone to just do that without the agreement of everyone ... so at least there's the realistic option to do something, so many nations, so many people, have their lives utterly dependent on climate change continuing. So nobody's making serious plans for that either (because, realistically, it'll mean war if something like that is implemented. Which is still better than doing nothing imho)

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#144

Post by sdeframond »

queenkjuul wrote: post #105
sdeframond wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you'd be out of business. Correct. And we'd be "out of business" too as a country if we decided alone to fix emissions. Other economies would have passed ours because burning oil is so damn useful. Thing is, I don't feel we are changing much in this respect. Now the best idea we come up with is burning more fuel for aircon...

> Now the best idea we come up with is burning more fuel for aircon... I mean really what else is there? We can't undo the warming, we can't rebuild every building in Europe (even if we could, would it work? Winter will still happen too). We can install solar panels and air conditioners, though.

We can install adjustable shades and ceiling fans. Cheap and efficient. It practically pays for itself in saved energy bills if we decide to add an aircon anyway. Plus the saved energy saves carbon emissions too.

We can update building regulations so that new building are better.

We can plant trees. It brings shade in summer but lets sun through in winter.

We can stop taking the plane.

I mean, there really are tons of things to do!

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#145

Post by simianwords »

polotics wrote: post #119
simianwords wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we don't do anything about emissions and climate change picks up, lives in 2126 will be unmistakably better than ours in all dimensions that matter.

can you show us the world model that predicts this outcome? which variables does it take into account?

This is more or less what most academics and serious policy makers believe.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#146

Post by ValleZ »

otherme123 wrote: post #108
tshaddox wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t see anything meme-like in the comment you responded to. Or even anything related to environmentalism. To me, it just looked like good health advice.

In case you don't know, there is a meme in the US that Europe don't know/don't have A/C. We do, but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit when entering a building like a musseum, leaving with the impression we don't know A/C. No general A/C might be the case in regions that never needed it before (mild summers, cold winters), but the…

It was fairly impossible to find a restaurant in Paris that had an AC not so long time ago. It’s totally not an issue in states.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#147

Post by [deleted] »

xorcist wrote: post #70
gonzalohm wrote: post #16

What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature. We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.

Due to the widespread idea that climate prediction has been predicting doom and gloom all the time, and has always been wrong about it, I have been entertaining myself by revisiting old climate predictions from 20 years ago. I can highly recommend it. I mean, predicting the climate must be one of the hardest numerical simulations you can run. Climate models are famously incomplete. But the results turned out to be wa…

[deleted]

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#148

Post by Tadpole9181 »

otherme123 wrote: post #108
tshaddox wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t see anything meme-like in the comment you responded to. Or even anything related to environmentalism. To me, it just looked like good health advice.

In case you don't know, there is a meme in the US that Europe don't know/don't have A/C. We do, but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit when entering a building like a musseum, leaving with the impression we don't know A/C. No general A/C might be the case in regions that never needed it before (mild summers, cold winters), but the…

Something like 90% of US residential buildings have AC. For Europe, it's around 20% (for good reason, mind you). It's not a meme if it's an actual fact that many European homes are not prepared for these kinds of increasingly common heat waves, and I got the impression that the parent was showing genuine concern.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#149

Post by zuzululu »

simmerup wrote: post #114
zuzululu wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but if you keep declaring a time clock every decade only to reset it for the past 50 years, does it not weaken the point of it ? we should've had an apocalypse by now, we haven't and unlikely to so for quite some time. why are we so eager and unquestioning of the published narratives going to the length of censoring counter theories?

Like an alcoholic saying drinking isn’t bad because he’s been drinking since his twenties and still hasn’t got cirrhosis By the time it’s an issue it’s too late.

thats a silly take, this is totally different from some pending apocalypse that is repeatedly pushed back when it doesn't happen.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#150

Post by zuzululu »

inigyou wrote: post #23
zuzululu wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but if you keep declaring a time clock every decade only to reset it for the past 50 years, does it not weaken the point of it ? we should've had an apocalypse by now, we haven't and unlikely to so for quite some time. why are we so eager and unquestioning of the published narratives going to the length of censoring counter theories?

Yeah the clock turned out to be silly, but if you interpret it as risk level instead of time, it makes sense. Since the 70s we have been at a near-100% chance this would happen.

so the probability approaches 0% every 10 years and then goes back up to 99% the following year and repeats 5 times ?

that makes little sense to me

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