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The Strongest El Niño Ever

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Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#121

Post by markvdb »

gmuslera wrote: post #44
gonzalohm wrote: post #16

What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature. We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.

That should be the scary part. We know how El Niño affects world's weather, but it is also a symptom of how much heat the ocean is absorbing. That core problem won't end this year or the next one, and it will keep disrupting global climate. And with it, agriculture, settlements, economy and civilization as we know it. And the scariest part is what we do about it. Keep doing activities that rise global temperature and…

- There is no "we", but it would take "we" to fix this.

- There is a global scale issue, but no consensus on this being a problem. Not at the global, continental, local or individual level. FFS, there are idiots proudly rolling coal.

- Leadership - in the rare places on earth where it is somewhat accountable - reflects this lack of consensus.

- Acknowledging the problem does not equal acting even on an individual level.

- There's lots of cognitive dissonance. Why am I even flying to the other side of the world next week?

We are cooked. Not so much us old farts, but the children.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#122

Post by dredmorbius »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #15

Does this mean California is more likely to get mega flooding?

"El Niño, California Precipitation, and Landslides" https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/landslides/el-nino>

El Niño is the “warm phase” of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and features warmer than average ocean surface temperatures off the coast of Ecuador and Peru in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean.... Historically, the presence of El Niño conditions tilts the odds in favor of wetter than normal precipitation across the southern third of the state. The relationship between El Niño and cool season precipitation is weaker in the central and northern parts of the state.

Flooding is possible, particularly if dams exceed capacity, perhaps exacerbated by earlier snowmelt and peak runoff. Landslides are a more widespread, and less manageable problem, particularly as loose-material slopes are waterlogged. The deluge -> high growth -> heavy fuel load -> large wildfire -> landslide cycle is one that's become fairly well-known in California.

Levee failures within the Sacramento Delta or Central Valley could result in very large-scale flooding, affecting agriculture or communities.

The San Francisco Bay Area may see "king tides" and general flooding throughout the bay and delta region, particularly during December and January, and all the more so if high tides coincide with heavy river run-off. Remember that the entire Central Valley of California, nearly 500 miles long north-to-south, drains out through the Bay. Prevailing winds may create a wind setup or seiche which can result in flooding along a some but not all shorelines, or alternating across a body of water.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_setup>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche>

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#123

Post by grvdrm »

hammock wrote: post #86
gmuslera wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That should be the scary part. We know how El Niño affects world's weather, but it is also a symptom of how much heat the ocean is absorbing. That core problem won't end this year or the next one, and it will keep disrupting global climate. And with it, agriculture, settlements, economy and civilization as we know it. And the scariest part is what we do about it. Keep doing activities that rise global temperature and…

It’s all so scary! I regret having a child.

I don’t. But I will at least consider the thinking about my kids (8, 4) should look into alternative paths.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#124

Post by polotics »

simianwords wrote: post #93
bamboozled wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really believe this is corporate propaganda. "Don't worry, we have the solutions". You don't.

[flagged]

oh you looked up 2126 on the Google did you? can you explain this verification process a bit more maybe? is it based on world3? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#125

Post by tjwebbnorfolk »

simmerup wrote: post #117
tjwebbnorfolk wrote: post #36

If you give any regularly-occurring event that varies in intensity enough time, it is guaranteed to break the records of its previous intensities.

And it varies in intensity because human activity is putting more energy into the system

It varies in intensity because it always has.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#126

Post by euroderf »

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #104
sdeframond wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we've been stupid "solar oven" buildings for 50 years while climate scientists were warning against extreme weather events and, now that said extreme event arrives, the best we find is to rush to aircon. Seems pretty short-sighted to me.

I live in SoCal and am continually shaking my head at the architecture. So my floor-to-ceiling glass buildings in a climate known for sunny weather. So much extra air-conditioning will be spent to cool those buildings compared to if they had been built more reflective.

I'd try hanging long sheets of aluminum foil in too-large windows. I imagine someone in academia has studied this.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#128

Post by dredmorbius »

asats wrote: post #109
dredmorbius wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth trend matters more than absolute present value. Data centres generally had been seeing energy use growing at 12% annually, or with a doubling time of 5.8 years (about 5 years 10 months). AI is accelerating that trend. In the United States, power consumption by data centres is on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. Driven by AI use, the US economy is set t…

>or with a doubling time of 5.8 years So that in ~6 years they will account for 1%, and still a fraction of the percent of the world total energy use?

Modulo, as noted, AI is accelerating that trend.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#129

Post by netsharc »

asats wrote: post #63
windexh8er wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're building more data centers for a technology that's ramping global warming even faster. Water consumption, heat generation and tons and tons of CO2 emitting concrete to house these things. So we're doing something , but those things are counterproductive to our planet's general well being. Apparently billionaires don't need an inhabitable Earth to live on.

Yeah, data-centers are definitely the worst thing happening to the planet. You got your priorities straight. AI data centers are what, half a percent of the world electricity consumption, if that, and an even smaller fraction of the total energy?

Because GPUs grow on trees...

> TSMC’s manufacturing success comes at an ecological cost. The company accounts for around 150,000 tonnes of water per day and 6.4% of the national electricity consumption.

https://taiwaninsight.org/2025/11/05/water-nexus-can-semicon...

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#130

Post by sdeframond »

carlosjobim wrote: post #118
sdeframond wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would absolutely be looking into how to get [...] at least one window air-conditioning unit if not a heat pump before next summer Before you do that, do the cost effective thing: shadow and wind. Then you can add an aircon iff thats not enough. For shadow, reftrofitting adjustable sunshade is pretty effective. Sunlight brings about 1kw per square meter of window. That like having your heater at full power when it…

Uncomfortable heat has nothing to do with temperature and everything to do with air humidity. Only an AC can lower the humidity, by conditioning the air.

> Uncomfortable heat has nothing to do with temperature and everything to do with air humidity

That is not correct. Heat, wind and humidity all contribute.

In a dry air with no wind, your body creates a "hot and humid" bubble around it if you are not moving. A fan helps.

Humid but neither cold nor hot air may not feel great, but not that bad.

Hot and humid air with no wind, now that's bad.

Edit: I know because I added shades and fans.

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