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DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

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Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#131
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep. the word they use is probably 克制 or self-restraint. no need to raise so much cash if you can't use it. in his article he talks about the negative aspects of getting everything you want. (all the money, brightest minds, biggest share in AI) etc. he says that these are the things that will cause a company to fail.

I shouldn't win too hard, because then I'll lose?

Yes. Once you're in such a comfortable position that you'll keep making lots of cash regardless of whether you do well or not, there is little incentive to make good decisions, let alone take risks. This is known as the "curse of Oil" and is also what Intel's decline is attributed to.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#132
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, wouldn't it makes sense to increase fundraising, so as to acquire more compute to close the gap?

I guess they likely can't right now due to no hardware available, either cause of bans or already all booked.

I gather this is the whole point of the original article. It seems to have been pulled, so I can't confirm.

At what point do the AI companies start building their own hardware, I wonder.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep. the word they use is probably 克制 or self-restraint. no need to raise so much cash if you can't use it. in his article he talks about the negative aspects of getting everything you want. (all the money, brightest minds, biggest share in AI) etc. he says that these are the things that will cause a company to fail.

is this similar to Meta starting to rent out own compute as they cant seem to do much with it and monetising it is much better ROI?...

Sorry to barge in here. I couldn't find a good place to place

https://github.com/demo-zexuan/liang-wenfeng-investor-meetin...

The current link is 404, can mods update to above, detach, make sticky?

(No response from mods, understandable)

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#134

Everything in this transcript reads so very different from what megalomaniacs in charge of Anthropic/OAI have to say

Did you also read the transcripts of meetings of Anthropic/OpenAI's investors?

Maybe you should read its IPO Filing. Since the doc isn't available at the moment, may be try SpaceX's one to see how an official doc of a company of another "megalomaniac" looks like, especially the section "CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS"

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#135
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

U.S. policymakers believe that even if the gap is small—like six months to a year—whoever reaches AGI first (whatever that means) could gain such an overwhelming advantage over their perceived adversary that it would effectively kneecap them. (You can look at the kinds of things they mention—cyber, WMDs—to get a sense of what they mean.) Jensen Huang disagrees and has said AI is a marathon.

I feel like if you showed current frontier models to someone 10 years ago, they'd probably call it AGI. Does AGI have a clear definition or is it just a pair of goalposts on wheels?

It's a carrot on a stick to make investors/the US government give @sama whatever he wants.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#136
post #50

I think the way to parse the current title "DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]" is that there was a leak that DeepSeek will pause fundraising because they perceive there is a compute gap with the US. I am also guessing that the majority of the people who read this title will think that DeepSeek is pausing this fundraising because some comments they made about the co…

I skimmed the doc and my impression is that your second listed interpretation -- DeepSeek is pausing investment because of a leak -- is the more correct one. There's quite a bit of confidential information in the doc about the company and how it's positioning itself going forward to compete with US labs. I'd imagine they're not happy at all with this being leaked and are withholding investment as a punitive measure.…

Because money isn’t free and if you know there is a chokehold in supply, why raise money ar current valuation when things are getting better by the day?

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is this similar to Meta starting to rent out own compute as they cant seem to do much with it and monetising it is much better ROI?...

Sorry to barge in here. I couldn't find a good place to place https://github.com/demo-zexuan/liang-wenfeng-investor-meetin... The current link is 404, can mods update to above, detach, make sticky? (No response from mods, understandable)

email hn@ycombinator.com

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#138
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't they use GlobalFoundries, Intel or TSMC in addition to their own fabs?

Chinese companies are effectively embargoed from using them for <14nm.

Sounds like an invasion of Taiwan could fix that problem for them.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#139
post #61

Give it 5 years for China to have it's own ASML. Nothing big bang is going to happen in 5 years or even a decade from now, execpt for a few more hypes, deep corrections and the political drama. AGI is not a destination, but a journey. There are no winners.

Are you saying there are no deep corrections and the political drama in China?

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#140
post #49
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt this is the case. It should be common knowledge at least among the people building these things that a true AGI isn’t possible with LLMs. Unless I’ve missed some advancement?

It's understood that LLMs have limitations and people are working on "the next thing" to try and make it to real AGI, e.g. Yann LeCun.

Many people have tried before, but the bitter lesson has come for them all.
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