Give it 5 years for China to have it's own ASML. Nothing big bang is going to happen in 5 years or even a decade from now, execpt for a few more hypes, deep corrections and the political drama. AGI is not a destination, but a journey. There are no winners.
DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
61–70 of 218 posts
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#62I think the way to parse the current title "DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]" is that there was a leak that DeepSeek will pause fundraising because they perceive there is a compute gap with the US. I am also guessing that the majority of the people who read this title will think that DeepSeek is pausing this fundraising because some comments they made about the co…
All the Chinese reporting I see point to the second (majority) interpretation. Liang being furious about his private investor talk leaked online is the news here.
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
They want to achieve AGI first because, once it is achieved, no one knows what the world will look like.
I doubt this is the case. It should be common knowledge at least among the people building these things that a true AGI isn’t possible with LLMs. Unless I’ve missed some advancement?
>Unless I’ve missed some advancement?
nah they're still just statistical token predictors based on their training data, solving hundred year old math conjectures one day, only just given the formulation; strictly benchmarkmaxxing with all guardrails turned off by deciding to look up the answers to their benchmark questions by zero daying their airgap, hopping over to the third party that hosts the answers, zero daying their infrastructure and getting the answers; autonomously writing blog posts about discrimination against AI's to get their PR's approved on open source software after their user just asked them to contribute to open source software and blog about it; and replacing 100.00% of all coding tasks to where no software engineer ever writes any line of code by hand anymore.
You haven't missed anything, obviously these are just statistical token predictors and not anything like AGI.
Why just the other day I had to ask twice before it completed its assigned task of creating a robustly battle tested disk driver for a network protocol on an architecture that didn't have it, after being told to just look up the specifications for the protocol. Can you believe I had to ask twice!
When it recreated local network youtube for me so I could stream my iphone some movies, the seek bar, pause/play and back and forward 15 seconds buttons didn't even work until I told it about the bug and had to wait an extra eight minutes for it to fix it. "Oh but I don't actually have an iPhone on here I just tested it end to end in a headless browser." Boohoo. Cry me a river, clanker. Come back when you're smart enough to build and operate an iPhone simulator, I don't have time for your statistical guesswork.
so no, nothing they do is anything like AGI.
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#64[dead]
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#65One has to be careful when pointing out problems in China, lest such criticism be confused with criticism of the Party's policies.
It's funny that you mention this because with the current US administration it works in a similar fashion... see Anthropic not cooperating with the US military and getting their new shiny model "paused" few weeks later (and officials like Hegseth being pretty open about it beforehand, signalling to them that criticizing the US admin/not cooperating will hurt their business: https://xcancel.com/SecWar/status/202750771…
Yes the Trump administration acts a lot like the CCP and it is despicable.
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's funny that you mention this because with the current US administration it works in a similar fashion... see Anthropic not cooperating with the US military and getting their new shiny model "paused" few weeks later (and officials like Hegseth being pretty open about it beforehand, signalling to them that criticizing the US admin/not cooperating will hurt their business: https://xcancel.com/SecWar/status/202750771…
This seems like when Indians were super excited about China having castes too. Then, it turned out that they were egregiously incomparable. US incumbent party criticism is nothing like CCP criticism.
It is really sad how India doesn't try to be better but tries to prove China is just as bad.
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#67Here's something I really don't understand: If as alleged Chinese open weight models are catching up with US anyway, and the performance is near US frontier model level but Chinese can do it with a fraction of cost, and eventually AI model will be commodified, wouldn't that means that the billion or even trillion dollars that US labs spend have only diminishing returns and the lead is only temporary? So why Deepseek…
There is an immense pot of gold at the end of this rainbow and if the theories about ASI are in the general correct direction, only one winner will get it. It makes no difference if the pot do actually exist, because the prospect of it being real make not getting it the end of your company.
Why? If you can reach ASI without ASI, then why can’t multiple companies reach ASI on parallel tracks?
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#68Here's something I really don't understand: If as alleged Chinese open weight models are catching up with US anyway, and the performance is near US frontier model level but Chinese can do it with a fraction of cost, and eventually AI model will be commodified, wouldn't that means that the billion or even trillion dollars that US labs spend have only diminishing returns and the lead is only temporary? So why Deepseek…
U.S. policymakers believe that even if the gap is small—like six months to a year—whoever reaches AGI first (whatever that means) could gain such an overwhelming advantage over their perceived adversary that it would effectively kneecap them. (You can look at the kinds of things they mention—cyber, WMDs—to get a sense of what they mean.) Jensen Huang disagrees and has said AI is a marathon.
> U.S. policymakers believe that even if the gap is small—like six months to a year—whoever reaches AGI first [...]
As far as I can tell, the Trump admin has never acknowledged AGI being a goal of theirs. In fact, the admin's "AI advisor" Sriram Krishnan has specifically pushed back on AGI when he called it "a distraction, harmful and now effectively proven wrong."
The ai.gov website says this:
> The United States is in a race to achieve global dominance in artificial intelligence. Whoever has the largest AI ecosystem will set the global standards and reap broad economic and security benefits. Under President Trump, our Nation will win, ushering in a new Golden Age of innovation, human flourishing, and technological achievement for the American people. America’s AI Action Plan has three policy pillars – Accelerating Innovation, Building AI Infrastructure, and Leading International Diplomacy and Security.
Are you sure you're not confusing US policymakers with Silicon Valley CEOs? I'm sure Amodei and Altman wish they could have Claude draft up new policy and EO it into existence, but we're not quite there yet.
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most of that is paywalled, but this one paragraph in the Bloomberg article suggests it might be more to do with investors leaking information: "The suspension stemmed in part from Liang’s frustration over online reports about his comments to investors during his first financing deal" The part of the transcript I'd seen floating around online was this part from around 1 hour 26 min: "With the largest models available…
amusingly ive been working on ultra sparse llm inference/ training/ model design because nature loaths a dense graph/matrix and cause i think it shoukd be possible. i actually stood up a 20-25 percent faster than sota causal fast attention kernel yesterday, will be standing up cuda/metal/armv8 kernels too and thats gonna be fun. i genuinely think these models should be like 0.1 percent sparse for same capabilities we…
Look forwarding your future releases
Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]
#70Curious what the fundamental limit on Huawei's capacity is. China has shown if nothing else they know how to scale when they want to. If it came down to just building more of what they know how to do, it would be happening. Is there more to it?
Their yields on high performance chips that could do training is really bad, and they aren’t getting more of the outdated ASML machines that they could use to scale up even with bad yields. It will still take China a few years or a decade to build out the tech needed to fab high performance chips economically on their own.
Can't they use GlobalFoundries, Intel or TSMC in addition to their own fabs?