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The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

theguardian.com

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Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#81

Post by great_psy »

stasomatic wrote: post #66
great_psy wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think to some extent is that the right candidates and employers are not meeting. Working at a ~1k employee company, we have been trying to hire both junior and senior devs. Out of ~10 interviews I conducted for junior, only 2 was able to program a linked list, and even that was with hints. It was not much better for senior(more system design question instead). I understand that leetcode questions are (and have been…

A linked list is your litmus test? You did qualify with your "leetcode" blurb, but last I've used one was in college 30y ago and never again. We are not all kernel hackers / bare to the metal here.

What would be a reasonable question, that’s similar difficulty as implementing a linked list ?

We have tried other questions as well, with similar results but perhaps our questions are outdated ?

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#82

Post by samrus »

bonoboTP wrote: post #74
samrus wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole thing is that the trend wont hold steady. Its a n s curve and will taper off. The onky question is if the asympote is tapers to is above a certain threshold or not. Like the threshold needed to achieve what your talking about. I dont know about the capability your talking about, but anyone who thinks these things are guaranteed, or a matter of time, is in for a rude awakening over the next few years

People have been foretelling the S curve flattening for years now. At every jump of capability people confidently assert that no more progress is possible, it has reached a plateau, there is no way to go beyond this, it's a fundamental limitation of the architecture, of the training methods etc. The horse will never ride the astronaut, it won't recognize cows on beaches, new theorems will never be proved, etc. etc.

It hasnt flattened yet. And the question is when will it. But its stupif to think its exponential. These things just arent exponential. The first half of the s curve seems exponential and wishful thinking extrapolates from there

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#83

Post by bonoboTP »

samrus wrote: post #82
bonoboTP wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been foretelling the S curve flattening for years now. At every jump of capability people confidently assert that no more progress is possible, it has reached a plateau, there is no way to go beyond this, it's a fundamental limitation of the architecture, of the training methods etc. The horse will never ride the astronaut, it won't recognize cows on beaches, new theorems will never be proved, etc. etc.

It hasnt flattened yet. And the question is when will it. But its stupif to think its exponential. These things just arent exponential. The first half of the s curve seems exponential and wishful thinking extrapolates from there

This is a very shallow point. The whole question is about where the S curve ends. Nobody claims that it will literally progress beyond all physical limits and number of atoms in the universe and beyond energy constraints contained in the universe and whatnot.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#84

Post by Izkata »

irishcoffee wrote: post #41
shivpat23 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unemployment rate and labor participation rate don’t support this.. probably true for software engineering but not the broader economy afaict

Uh, wat? Edit: for clarification, it’s never been worse. See link. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data...

Labor force participation rate was worse during the 2020 lockdowns and the entire recorded period before 1976: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Unemployment rate has been going down for the past couple months, even though it was already lower than it has been for most of the period since the 70s: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

That Yahoo page mentions these as a source, but it doesn't link them, presumably because they don't match its claims.

That said, both going down implies the people without jobs have stopped looking for jobs (which drops them from the unemployment rate calculation). Question then is why have they stopped and how are they getting by?

Or perhaps it's the other way around, new kids entering working age and not bothering to look for a job while living off their parents, and people in retirement age who won't retire for whatever reason?

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#85

Post by pdimitar »

consensus1 wrote: post #77
pdimitar wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine this comes with some credentialism and networking i.e. companies ask each other whether person X is good? If so, I can see how easily the current difficulties in the labor market can be overcome that way.

I don't have a CS degree, and I am talking about inbound recruiter emails, so it's not credentialism or networking. I did get my current job via networking though, but networking in this industry isn't really any more than "I used to work with this guy and he is good so give him an interview."

Yeah well, I don't even have that last part so great that you have it. I am sure it helps quite a bit.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#86

Post by [deleted] »

shivpat23 wrote: post #31
soupfordummies wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if we’re actually in like a shadow recession and companies are just using AI as an excuse to do layoffs or hire less. Idk there’s a lot of diff variables and it’s complicated of course, I really don’t think it’s because “AI’s taking the jobs” tho.

Unemployment rate and labor participation rate don’t support this.. probably true for software engineering but not the broader economy afaict

[deleted]

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#87

Post by roryirvine »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #13

Then what is causing hiring to be so low, or the layoffs? Just a soft job market in general? The economy is actually tanking, not just "AI" jobs. Did hiring managers just pump the brakes "just in case this AI thing is real". So we should see some big spike in hiring now that we know AI isn't going to do everything? Or, the actual real numbers of hiring, is for real an indicator that AI is already taking jobs, or redu…

It's quite region-specific, I think. The big SV tech companies have slowed hiring, and some are doing layoffs. And, obviously, they're global companies so that's had some impact on the rest of the world.

But apart from that, is there really so much of a problem?

In London, there seems to be a bit of a boom going on - in both established tech and the startup scene. The EU is, as ever, a mixed bag but there doesn't seem to any sort of rout even in places like Dublin which are most exposed to the US. India seems to be doing well, as does China. The Gulf states are hurting - perhaps due a downturn in the influencer & crypto markets, but just as likely a result of the US war on Iran.

If the pain is concentrated in the US, then it's most likely a result of local political or economic conditions rather than some sort of global AI apocalypse.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#88

Post by Terr_ »

Gualdrapo wrote: post #12

All I know is that trying to get a job now is being way more brutal than before. The closest thing I got this month was a scam email from an alleged "independent global senior recruiter" "currently supporting a confidential search for a company developing AI-powered digital products". The made-with-ai smell was all over the place, the company in mention allegedly was adobe, and am pretty sure they got my email from t…

Scam applicants are problem too.

I don't think it's too hyperbolic to say that every single problem in hiring/job-seeking boils down lack of trust.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#89

Post by elmer2 »

great_psy wrote: post #54
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #13

Then what is causing hiring to be so low, or the layoffs? Just a soft job market in general? The economy is actually tanking, not just "AI" jobs. Did hiring managers just pump the brakes "just in case this AI thing is real". So we should see some big spike in hiring now that we know AI isn't going to do everything? Or, the actual real numbers of hiring, is for real an indicator that AI is already taking jobs, or redu…

I think to some extent is that the right candidates and employers are not meeting. Working at a ~1k employee company, we have been trying to hire both junior and senior devs. Out of ~10 interviews I conducted for junior, only 2 was able to program a linked list, and even that was with hints. It was not much better for senior(more system design question instead). I understand that leetcode questions are (and have been…

At some point, I think companies will move back to in-person interviews only with a controlled environment, to ensure no AI cheating.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#90

Post by AbsurdCensor »

therealdrag0 wrote: post #56
650 wrote: post #4

You still need handholding, you can’t just give a few junior devs Claude Opus 5 and expect them to recreate Instagram in a few weeks. Frontend and backend basics sure, but security, scale, etc. need prior knowledge.

I totally agree, but a lot of this debate comes down to the definition of apocalypse a 20% reduction in jobs will affect a huge amount of people who will fill all forums with complaints of job getting difficulty without being an apocalypse.

In tech at least in the US, there already has been a 20% reduction in jobs, because they were overhired by 200% during the pandemic. Plenty of bleed in the industry left and very little is because of AI.
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