Earlier quoted context omitted.
The idea that we can’t get enough electrical power on earth because of supply constraints, but that we can solve that by launching the datacenters and their entire support infrastructure into space makes no sense unless you’re a huckster trying to pump up your space launch business ahead of an IPO. There’s no way we are more constrained on land-based solar+battery equipment than we would be on space-worthy solar+batt…
For whatever reason, nobody is trying to build solar-powered AI datacenters. Maybe they can't find enough land.
Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
81–90 of 116 posts
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#82Oracle cannot possibly be expecting to meet its bets here. My own empirical one-person observation is that my friend worked there in the group that went around the world standing up their new cloud datacenters, and he was there from basically 2019 to earlier this year. They laid him and half his team off earlier this year. Absolutely nonsensical if they're really building out cloud data centers. Because that's exactl…
From my limited second-hand understanding of orcl, a team that operates in a smooth and well greased manner is quite the anomaly. I could see why the company would have an immune response to it.
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
You think that building out space infrastructure is a less hard problem to solve than bribing a few local governments to get some building permits?
>a less hard problem to solve than bribing a few local governments Wouldn't it be best if the data centers were just... good neighbors? Like everyone talking about illegal bribes and impossible moonshots when the answer is just don't suck?
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why restrict yourself to 100% solar? Solar augmented by grid is pretty great. Also, you very conspicuously avoided talking about the difficulty/impact of a 1GW datacenter in space. One might suspect your motives aren't as impartial as you seem to think.
The whole problem is difficulty getting grid connections on Earth. If you can just hook up to the grid then why not just use it for everything. I don't have any motives, what are you talking about? I don't own SpaceX stock if that's what you're thinking. What's the difficulty of a 1GW datacenter in space? The number of satellites it requires seems to be within the realm of what SpaceX has already achieved. If the cal…
Simple back of the envelope calculations?
Let's assume your numbers are correct and that panels in space can generate 10x the power per square meter per 24 hour period (due to efficiency, lack of night, and lack of atmosphere/weather). That means 10 KM^2 are needed for one such data center. The largest we've built in space is ~3,000 M^2 on the ISS. So one of these DCs in space will require an array ~3,000 times the size of the largest we've built before. Or, it's going to require ~3,000 satellites, each with an array the size of the largest we've ever deployed.
The largest Starlink satellites currently deployed generate less than 30 KW each. We'd need more than 30,000 of those to generate this much power. Starlink has launched ~12,500 to date, with ~10,000 still functioning. So 3x the size of the functioning fleet that's taken 8+ years to deploy. Currently, we are deploying well under 5,000 per year. Let's assume we can come up with enough spare capacity to launch 5,000 per year. That's 6 years to deploy the first 1GW DC. By the time we get to 1GW, the average GPU is 3 years old. So we need to continue to deploy 5,000 satellites per year to maintain 1GW of GPUs that are, on average, 3 years behind current generation GPU designs.
This is all before we get to the economics of launching, the cost of the satellites themselves, heat dissipation, radiation hardening, hardware failure rates (~20% of deployed Starlink satellites are no longer functioning), etc.
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#85Oracle is increasingly looking like the Lehman Brothers of the AI boom. One day it will all go pop and the cards will start crumbling elsewhere in the industry.
They'll just spin some divisions off and/or sell the DC's they have to Anthropic or others at a profit. They could also just rent compute out at insane margins. They aren't going anywhere.
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very unlikely to be the technical build team at fault for that. Real estate, legal, permitting, utility connections, construction, plant fit out, testing and certification, security, customs and immigration, and shipping all need to happen first - and every one of those has room for huge amounts of uncertainty and delay, more so if you're doing it internationally. There aren't many shortcuts that you can take when yo…
That matches my experience at google. Getting the land and approvals was the most time, then the basic site prep and building shells and utilities, then basic building fit out, and then finally the actual tech installs.
The real way to increase throughput is to first slow down and smooth out the inevitable bumps by adding adequate slack and building up an inventory of shovel-ready projects as a buffer - and then to start running multiple teams in parallel.
The fact that OP's friend experienced Oracle doing the exact opposite of this lends credence to the idea that they're under pressure and are perhaps panicking.
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
every stock should have the chance to go to zero if we are to have a true Free Market.
Fundamentally wiping out shareholders and most of bond holders bonds is a good thing. It keeps markets healthy and honest. Excuses about pensions is just excuses from gamblers.
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
One level above junk. Yikes.
The problem with Oracle is how much utterly and directly depends on them. They still are the authoritative source on "what is Java" and stuff like SAP directly depends on Java and in many cases Oracle Database (the supported alternatives are AFAIK IBM's mainframe stuff and MS SQL, but I only ever saw Oracle whenever I had the misfortune of having to dig into SAP). If Oracle goes down, a lot of businesses are going to…
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#89Oracle is increasingly looking like the Lehman Brothers of the AI boom. One day it will all go pop and the cards will start crumbling elsewhere in the industry.
They'll just spin some divisions off and/or sell the DC's they have to Anthropic or others at a profit. They could also just rent compute out at insane margins. They aren't going anywhere.
Still, capital isn't getting any cheaper for them and their CDS are still climbing.
Re: Oracle could face $7B collateral bill for Wisconsin data centre
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sending to LEO costs around $2,700 usd and 9kWh of fuel per kilogram. If you manage to send a data center with high end processing units, large array of solar panels, even larger liquid cooling and tick shielding against solar rays you’d have spent probably 100x to 1000x the cost of an equivalent earth data center even without considering hardware deprecation. You’re better off sinking your data center deep in the se…
I tried to find what the worst option is other than putting them in space and you can do a lot! Trucking diesel to the middle of the Sahara is a decent option in comparison to space.