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Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

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Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#171

Post by hparadiz »

sciencejerk wrote: post #123
charcircuit wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society is already being rewarded from the investments AI companies have made. These investments have created something so valuable that society is paying billions of dollars for the product they are making. Even without access to the raw weights, the option of being able to pay for access to these models has tremendous value to society that can not be ignored.

How about cheap healthcare? Or affordable housing, water, electricity and food? Is AI improving human quality of life?

Objectivly. Yes. Not only am seeing it being used to increase farming yields it's also improving healthcare. Both water and electricity are the lowest they have ever been as a percentage of income and only getting lower. People keep looking at flat dollar figures like inflation isn't a thing and it's still 1995 or something. In reality we're accelerating to an abundance economy.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/most-us-richer-ev...

The pessimistic attitude here is exhausting. In reality it's by far the best time ever to be a human on this planet.

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#173

Post by spaceman_2020 »

zkmon wrote: post #50
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replace you with AI, and when the AI math falls apart, use your tax money to bail out AI And they’ll get away with it too

Because AI is "too big to fail".

Wild that we all lived exactly the same way before AI

Really changed so little in my life. I just use chatgpt instead of Google search now

It's being marketed as some ground breaking revolutionary change when all it is is a better widget

Remove it and the worst that will happen is that I'll go back to writing my emails and my code by hand - something I've done for the last 20 years anyway

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#174

Post by ItsBob »

m101 wrote: post #80
darth_avocado wrote: post #3

Well technically they don’t own the debt, the SPVs that own the data centers do. The giants just have long term commitments, but if shit hits the fan, it’s not the tech giants but the banks that lent the money to the SPVs that are at risk. This usually means all of us are on the hook.

The banks aren’t lending the money to these SPVs. It’s mostly private credit. The way banks get involved is that they may be lending senior financing to the private credit funds but that means they have a ton of subordination.

> It’s mostly private credit

I believe that some of the private credit is the banks' own private credit arm! It's absolutely mental: the bank can't lend to them so they have a private credit company/division that can skirt around the rules and still provide the capital!

Also, I bet that the Oracle datacenters aren't for Oracle LLC but Oracle Datacenter No 4 LLC so that if it all goes tits up, Oracle LLC walks away!

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#175

Post by thin_carapace »

senordevnyc wrote: post #148
thin_carapace wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

are you looking for a fight? I love fighting but I never said any of that. so I can't really defend the position, it isn't mine.

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#176

Post by hparadiz »

rmunn wrote: post #125
LtWorf wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a cope.

Huh? What exactly do you think I'm trying to "cope" with? That American AI companies are overleveraged and some of them are going to go bankrupt? I've been predicting that for months. Why do you think I would need to cope with the idea?

In reality just like every major market runup there's gonna be a consolidation of the industry and inevitably it will cause many companies to fail and critics will point to that and go "see it was a bubble!" while completely ignoring the several dozen new companies that will rise out of it. It's the 90s all over again.

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#177

Post by Gareth321 »

walrus01 wrote: post #165
Gareth321 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO I think the blast radius is implicitly contained. The major investments are in data centres, and the current investment cases impute near zero residual value after five years. Meaning that current valuations already assume "catastrophic" declines in equipment valuation. This is unusually clear-eyed and sober investment calculus in the tech space. Further, unlike during the dotcom crisis, most of this spending is…

> I don't see a likely scenario where the entire sector collapses. There is no apparent cascade failure mechanism. Of course, these mechanisms aren't always immediately clear prior to crashes. I can see a scenario where companies like openAI and Anthropic do go belly up but the technology and IP and physical assets remain, get balkanized or snapped up by various other parties. Let's say for instance that they do fini…

Even if OpenAI or Anthropic or both fail, they're not even listed yet. It barely makes a dent on the stock market. Their infrastructure and IP is purchased by Microsoft/Google/Meta, and those companies valuations adjust accordingly.

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#178

Post by actionfromafar »

DrScientist wrote: post #170
AznHisoka wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who belongs to “all of us”, i vote to not bail us out if shit hits the fan. No need to ask me when it happens, OK? No really, it’s nice of you but we really dont need to be bailed out. You are welcome :)

Money isn't lost per se, it's transferred. ie for every loser there is a winner. Obvious ones are those who can extract value from this companies now ( high salaries/bonus etc ), swapping worthless paper for real assets, Nvidia and their share holders etc. Investors who hold short positions etc.

True but the opportunity cost is truly lost. Entropy comes for everyone. If we spend a lot of money digging holes in the ground then filling them again, maybe no money was lost.

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#179

Post by thin_carapace »

weregiraffe wrote: post #149
thin_carapace wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Lol, now every pattern of speech is AI? How about we jusr stop talking then?

I have noted the employment of a language technique that as per the wikipedia article "signs of AI writing" is commonly used by AI, you can attack facts all you like and that will indeed stop me from talking!

Re: Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding

#180

Post by mlrtime »

DrScientist wrote: post #170
AznHisoka wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who belongs to “all of us”, i vote to not bail us out if shit hits the fan. No need to ask me when it happens, OK? No really, it’s nice of you but we really dont need to be bailed out. You are welcome :)

Money isn't lost per se, it's transferred. ie for every loser there is a winner. Obvious ones are those who can extract value from this companies now ( high salaries/bonus etc ), swapping worthless paper for real assets, Nvidia and their share holders etc. Investors who hold short positions etc.

You are trying to define zero sum without saying it. The market is not zero sum, a loan isn't zero sum.

There isn't a winner and loser.

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