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AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

ludic.mataroa.blog

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Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#261
post #61

I read the entire post, and I think this company has no expertise at all. So I'd rather they just used AI writing instead.At least Frontier model AI doesn't make such overblown claims. They proudly claim that every AI project they've observed over the past year and a half had a 0% success rate, and that they've rejected all AI implementation work. While this is evidence that the market is crazy, at its core, it's a p…

The article is not a technical overview of AI's failures, it's about the organizational failures that lead to things like token leaderboards. I would argue that this article goes far beyond the "obvious" fact of token leaderboards and into the deeper problems faced by both vendors and companies trying to measure the efficacy of AI.

How would AI writing help in any way?

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#262
post #94

Most of us on some level felt confident that AI would completely revolutionise our society. The singularity made sense to me, at least. It hasn't worked out like that, but rather than accept the crushing reality of our mistake and take a second to re-evaluate, we've decided to LARP out the future we promised ourselves by crowbar-and-vaselineing AI into every crack and crevice we can find and loudly proclaiming progre…

I just don't understand how someone could think we're going back to a pre-LLM world. Have you not used one since Opus 4.5 came out? Especially as somebody that's no longer in the software profession and so doesn't have 40 hours a week to just sit there and crank out code, agentic AI is a technological leap on the level of search engines, bulletin boards or compilers. You can literally just open Claude Code, say: - "A…

> and sign it with my real key

That's the kind of irresponsible foolishness that makes it hard for me to take you seriously.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#263
post #61

I read the entire post, and I think this company has no expertise at all. So I'd rather they just used AI writing instead.At least Frontier model AI doesn't make such overblown claims. They proudly claim that every AI project they've observed over the past year and a half had a 0% success rate, and that they've rejected all AI implementation work. While this is evidence that the market is crazy, at its core, it's a p…

The article is not a technical overview of AI's failures, it's about the organizational failures that lead to things like token leaderboards. I would argue that this article goes far beyond the "obvious" fact of token leaderboards and into the deeper problems faced by both vendors and companies trying to measure the efficacy of AI. How would AI writing help in any way?

Honestly, it's just shouting into an echo chamber. They call it organizational failure, but it's really just 'come on, my side.' A consultant who does that is untrustworthy. It means they have no metrics.

Same goes for their 0% claim. It's overgeneralization, isn't it?

So why did they fail, what went wrong, and how should these AI projects be analyzed—and by what metrics? They skip all that and just throw out a single KPI. What insight does that offer?

Honestly, there are a lot of people on HN who just shout that AI is useless because their own jobs are at risk. That's an undeniable fact. In my country, Korea, we say 'like a pheasant hiding its head in the ground.' It means denying reality and lacking self-awareness.

I've also seen many failed AI projects due to a lack of proper evaluation of AI capabilities. I don't want to deny that premise.

But if you're going to make that argument, you need to describe why they failed. There's none of that here, just this:

'We're going to opt out because it looks like AI projects will fail.'

They package it as being cautious, but when you peel back the wrapper, it really means:

'We can't keep up with the AI trend. And we can't tell what works and what doesn't.'

Sure, AI has a bubble. No one can deny that. But separate from that, it is useful. Do you really think millions of consumers would stick around for something useless?

Social problems are arising, and people are losing jobs because of it. Let's think the other way around. It doesn't make sense for people to lose jobs over something that's truly useless and wrong.

People are losing jobs because it's useful and valuable. So wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the problem is 'over-application' rather than the thing itself being bad? In other words, we could say that it's being valued more than it's worth. But this argument just says it's bad, period, with no nuance. I can't trust someone who talks like that.

AI writing, if you give it a red-team prompt, can at least refine the surface of counterarguments to your claim. But this—from overgeneralization to extremes—is a textbook example of bad human writing

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#264
post #61

I read the entire post, and I think this company has no expertise at all. So I'd rather they just used AI writing instead.At least Frontier model AI doesn't make such overblown claims. They proudly claim that every AI project they've observed over the past year and a half had a 0% success rate, and that they've rejected all AI implementation work. While this is evidence that the market is crazy, at its core, it's a p…

The article is not a technical overview of AI's failures, it's about the organizational failures that lead to things like token leaderboards. I would argue that this article goes far beyond the "obvious" fact of token leaderboards and into the deeper problems faced by both vendors and companies trying to measure the efficacy of AI. How would AI writing help in any way?

If this were genuinely a consultant's writing, they would need to present a modeling hypothesis for why failure occurs in organizations and support it with metrics. But claiming their own observation of 0% is not a hypothesis.

Of course, they can write it on a personal blog. That's not inherently bad.

But when they're rejecting client requests while offering no opinion on how to model the metrics that would define success—that's the problem. This type of writing is just an illusionary piece that claims to offer insight. It's a bad form of human writing. I like to call this style the 'Rhonda Byrne Secret type.'

At the very least, a consultant should provide modeling of their hypothesis and actionable advice.

Explaining everything with a single reason—that people are afraid of being laid off if they don't adopt AI—is just a cop-out. There's no hypothesis, no reasoning behind why that claim holds. It's trying to explain everything with just that one assertion. I'm not even sure if that holds up organizationally

The OP offers no logical reasoning about how decisions are made or why they break down.

A proper piece of writing would have looked like this:

Why did the client want to adopt LLMs?

What problems arose during the client's process of adopting LLMs?

How does this connect to the organization's internal issues and disrupt its pipeline?

You need at least that level of description. This is just an emotional post that seems to say 'I wish LLMs would fail.

If they had really explained organizational dynamics, they would have talked about the asymmetry of expected costs.

Professional managers and mid-level managers prioritize career defense above all else, so they're extremely risk-averse. They would have explained the costs of adopting AI versus the costs of failing to adopt AI.

If they reject AI adoption, shareholders or the board would say they're 'failing to read the trend.' If they adopt AI and fail, they can package it as 'early market entry costs'—a defensible risk.

Providing that kind of defensive logic to decision-makers is exactly what consultants do.

It's described as being held at gunpoint, but it's really just a prisoner's dilemma. In a market where competitors and vendors are all lying and saying 'we've achieved 100x productivity with AI,' the moment someone tells the truth and says 'we don't need AI for our business,' they become a political target both inside and outside the organization. In the end, everyone knows it's useless, but they approve budgets for 'fake AI projects' anyway. I can offer that kind of cheap insight too—it's a Nash equilibrium where the system has been driven to a race to the bottom.

And I'm not even a consultant

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#265
“Infidelity does not consist in believing, or in disbelieving; it consists in professing to believe what he does not believe. It is impossible to calculate the moral mischief, if I may so express it, that mental lying has produced in society. When a man has so far corrupted and prostituted the chastity of his mind, as to subscribe his professional belief to things he does not believe, he has prepared himself for the commission of every other crime.” ― Thomas Paine, The Age of Reason

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#266
post #94

Most of us on some level felt confident that AI would completely revolutionise our society. The singularity made sense to me, at least. It hasn't worked out like that, but rather than accept the crushing reality of our mistake and take a second to re-evaluate, we've decided to LARP out the future we promised ourselves by crowbar-and-vaselineing AI into every crack and crevice we can find and loudly proclaiming progre…

I totally agree with all your points except welcoming the singularity. How do you imagine your or your children's lives in the singularity? What do you do there for a living, or which hobbies do you pursue in the best case it frees you and everyone around to pursuit nothing but hobbies? What do you do in the worst case it pushes everyone to underground strongholds to fight machines for the survival of the humankind?…

I'd play games, read books and do drugs.

It'd be different from today's state of affairs in that I wouldn't need to spend the majority of my waking hours reading stuff I don't care about and building things I don't believe need to exist in order to pay for a house I don't own. Healthcare would probably be more reliable and accessible too.

At this point though, I no longer believe this is anyone's future except the most fortunate of the fortunate, most of whom essentially live this way already.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#267
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not going to go back to pre LLM times, it’s also not going to go to a generative ai utopia where we can turn off our brains and a model will understand every nuance of human existence without some from of defined guidance. Just like block chain still exists, it just didn’t revolutionize decentralization. It created a new tool that can be implemented when you want the benefits of what the blockchain can do, same…

I think the biggest realization to me of this whole thing is that most people don't want to turn off their brains. I think we, very naively, thought that some hypothetical life of zero-thought pure-leisure was not only achievable, but desirable. And it's just... not. People want to be challenged, they want to read human material, they want to listen to human music. Sure those like crappy Spotify fake artists might ma…

> I think we, very naively, thought that some hypothetical life of zero-thought pure-leisure was not only achievable, but desirable.

May I recommend Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World" to you?

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

One of the most wild parts of the "Is AI useful" arguments is how different people are getting so astoundingly different results from it. One guy will claim that he can one-shot "Port this unmaintained app from 2017 to modern Android," go do the dishes, and come back to a working application. And the next guy will say, "I can't get it to do anything groundbreaking and have to micro-babysit it every step of the way to…

> Assuming both people are truthful and operating in good faith, how can this be explained?

Quite simply, difference in skill.

The sysadmin that has configured a few applications in their career would likely get annoyed at how many mistakes an LLM makes.

The manager who barely knows their way around a shell, uses an LLM to configure an application in less than the three business days it will take them, and will claim they are 10x more productive now.

Once again, LLMs are effectively great at triggering the Dunning-Kruger effect. The least you know, the more productive you feel.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#269
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not going to go back to pre LLM times, it’s also not going to go to a generative ai utopia where we can turn off our brains and a model will understand every nuance of human existence without some from of defined guidance. Just like block chain still exists, it just didn’t revolutionize decentralization. It created a new tool that can be implemented when you want the benefits of what the blockchain can do, same…

I think the biggest realization to me of this whole thing is that most people don't want to turn off their brains. I think we, very naively, thought that some hypothetical life of zero-thought pure-leisure was not only achievable, but desirable. And it's just... not. People want to be challenged, they want to read human material, they want to listen to human music. Sure those like crappy Spotify fake artists might ma…

People say they want to get challenged.

> most people don't want to turn off their brains

Biologically, life is an effort-minimizing machine. Our brains have a whole system of habit-forming to minimize the enormous amount of energy it takes to think.

Whatever people say, give them a way to think less, and they will necessarily prefer it unless they literally are a Buddhist monk, seeking to be aware over every action and thought.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#270
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is not a technical overview of AI's failures, it's about the organizational failures that lead to things like token leaderboards. I would argue that this article goes far beyond the "obvious" fact of token leaderboards and into the deeper problems faced by both vendors and companies trying to measure the efficacy of AI. How would AI writing help in any way?

Honestly, it's just shouting into an echo chamber. They call it organizational failure, but it's really just 'come on, my side.' A consultant who does that is untrustworthy. It means they have no metrics. Same goes for their 0% claim. It's overgeneralization, isn't it? So why did they fail, what went wrong, and how should these AI projects be analyzed—and by what metrics? They skip all that and just throw out a singl…

(i'm more chatty because it's my "down-day". Hope you don't mind)

I don't think you're upset because AI is useful and valuable. Are you upset because you can't describe how the bubble will burst?

Some (more) quantitative types saying that the economics are deflationary. So NVIDIA have already won.

But there are some that claim that the bubble has nothing to do with NVIDIA's monopoly on compute (21.C steam engine/steel). That the bubble is in the OX layer. (You?). If Anthropic (or Palantir replacement) fail to do what? Then the bubble will burst.

This is the more interesting but I will have to sleep on it.

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