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AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

ludic.mataroa.blog

91–100 of 320 posts

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#91
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I disagree about the success of chatbots, if the problem is narrowly-defined and chosen properly. If you can narrow the problem down, then you could design a much better interface for it than a text box and free form text (unless that's the better solution). As for as AI assisted engineering goes, the thing is that after some time with a project, you already have much of the workflows and routines nailed down as sc…

> If you can narrow the problem down, then you could design a much better interface for it than a text box and free form text (unless that's the better solution). Yes, I agree, in that the chatbot we built probably would have worked just as well with a traditional UI, and would have been done a lot faster. But it would have been a lot less sexy (actually important for the bottom line!) and there are future directions…

> But it would have been a lot less sexy (actually important for the bottom line!

That’s what the author have been saying. They do for nice demos which sell the illusion of having Jarvis in text format, but the usefulness is not really proven. And that may be important business wise. But as far as end users is concerned, there’s not a lot of productivity boost.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#93
post #16

> All of the AI projects we have observed as a team are failing. Every single one – we have seen 0% success in a year and a half, not only amongst projects we have been asked to participate in, but even within projects that we have observed in passing while doing totally unrelated work. That's got to be hyperbole, which blows out their credibility. They chose to say 'AI' rather than, for example, LLM, or Transformer…

Look, if they have data and it says 0%, and you have vibes that say that can’t be true, who should we believe?

Do you work with lots of companies and see large AI success stories?

Or do you just vibe that you personally find AI useful so it must also be a business success?

Look, I honestly don’t care, but I think “it must be false” is also unsubstantiated hyperbole. If an agency says they see no AI success, I see no particular reason to believe they’re lying.

They’re not saying AI can’t be a success. They’re saying they haven’t seen it. That matches my experience too. Proven AI success stories seem… vague, when you dig into the details, in my personal experience.

It doesn’t seem surprising to me.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#94
Most of us on some level felt confident that AI would completely revolutionise our society. The singularity made sense to me, at least. It hasn't worked out like that, but rather than accept the crushing reality of our mistake and take a second to re-evaluate, we've decided to LARP out the future we promised ourselves by crowbar-and-vaselineing AI into every crack and crevice we can find and loudly proclaiming progress.

It's like some 90s kid with a Nintendo power glove who's convinced themselves that this makes them a hacker. This is not the singularity.

I personally can't wait for this to end, and for everyone to collectively get back to waiting for whatever the next golden ticket that's supposed to solve all of our problems turns out to be.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#95
post #16

> All of the AI projects we have observed as a team are failing. Every single one – we have seen 0% success in a year and a half, not only amongst projects we have been asked to participate in, but even within projects that we have observed in passing while doing totally unrelated work. That's got to be hyperbole, which blows out their credibility. They chose to say 'AI' rather than, for example, LLM, or Transformer…

He does employ a lot of hyperbole. Some of his previous blog posts have titles like "I Will Fucking Dropkick You If You Use That Spreadsheet" (https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/i-will-fucking-dropkick-you-...) and "I Will Fucking Piledrive You If You Mention AI Again" (https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/i-will-fucking-piledrive-you...).

He's not a big fan of polite, corporate speech, I suspect.

But I like his style and he often has some insightful points that go against some popular industry practices.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#96

The AI mania has been really fascinating to witness because on the surface it’s surprising that so many otherwise intelligent people have fallen into it. But I suppose intelligence as a concept is multifaceted and doesn’t include wisdom. I also wonder if it has to do with personality, where the people whose personality best suits leadership roles are more susceptible to this psychosis. I think there is also an archet…

It's the bell curve meme every time - very, very often stupid people end up being "wiser" than moderately intelligent people.

Meanwhile the really intelligent people end up with beliefs surprisingly close directionally to the stupid people who've barely thought about an issue, just fleshed out with 100x the detail.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#97
post #94

Most of us on some level felt confident that AI would completely revolutionise our society. The singularity made sense to me, at least. It hasn't worked out like that, but rather than accept the crushing reality of our mistake and take a second to re-evaluate, we've decided to LARP out the future we promised ourselves by crowbar-and-vaselineing AI into every crack and crevice we can find and loudly proclaiming progre…

> It hasn't worked out like that

It seems quite premature to say that. We're 3 to 4 years into the LLM revolution and the rate of progress is still impressive. The recursive self-improvement aspect that is necessary for the actual singularity is something we're only really starting to get into this year.

If the singularity is 5 years from now, that is still much sooner than most people (including me) previously expected it to happen.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#98

The AI mania has been really fascinating to witness because on the surface it’s surprising that so many otherwise intelligent people have fallen into it. But I suppose intelligence as a concept is multifaceted and doesn’t include wisdom. I also wonder if it has to do with personality, where the people whose personality best suits leadership roles are more susceptible to this psychosis. I think there is also an archet…

It's the bell curve meme every time - very, very often stupid people end up being "wiser" than moderately intelligent people. Meanwhile the really intelligent people end up with beliefs surprisingly close directionally to the stupid people who've barely thought about an issue, just fleshed out with 100x the detail. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

[dead]

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#99
post #94

Most of us on some level felt confident that AI would completely revolutionise our society. The singularity made sense to me, at least. It hasn't worked out like that, but rather than accept the crushing reality of our mistake and take a second to re-evaluate, we've decided to LARP out the future we promised ourselves by crowbar-and-vaselineing AI into every crack and crevice we can find and loudly proclaiming progre…

Each new iteration of the hype cycle feels "like its not hype" because the tech is more promising in new ways, but the hype comes from human perception. New tech has to fight a lot of real world and project management issues, and development morphs and slows. We don't know exactly what we have until it faces these issues.

Re: AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making

#100
Just this past week, I have had to answer two surveys, from different sources, asking how I use AI in my work. Both had a "choose all that apply" checkbox, and, funnily enough, neither allowed me to select zero options. "This question is mandatory". :)
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