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The Kimi K3 Moment

stephen.bochinski.dev

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Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#481

Post by dgellow »

surgical_fire wrote: post #151
dgellow wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US might pressure them?

Not sure if you noticed, European countries are distancing themselves from the US. They couldn't be pressured to offer logistic support to the US shitshow in Iran, why would they be pressured to help the US in its protectionism of its AI bubble?

Im aware, I’m in Europe… The US is still a bully and I would expect to be very likely to pressure other countries, even if the influence reduced. But you will notice that I used a conditional in my comment, to soften it

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#482

Post by MrBuddyCasino »

> GLM 5.2 came out under an MIT license, beats the latest Opus release on real work while not even claiming to be frontier

I used GLM 5.2 a bit, and while it is usable for some tasks it is not frontier quality. Besides it likes to think for a long time and sometimes just gives up.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#483

Post by dgellow »

anigbrowl wrote: post #333
dgellow wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US might pressure them?

US pressure is worth a lot less than it used to be; that's why other developed countries are urgently prioritizing digital sovereignty after years of technological sclerosis where they were happy to run on US-managed cloud infrastructure. It's not just the tariffs and imperialist/autocratic aspirations of the current President; it's also the fecklessness of the federal legislature and the revelation via social media…

It’s worth less, unfortunately the country is still the most powerful military and economical actor in the world, and still has a lot of influence

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#484

Post by girvo »

tristanj wrote: post #373
remexre wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my first prompt to any Kimi model was K3 via Pi, some version of "hi kimi!!" and the response was telling me "I'm actually Claude." this is not hard to repro, just use a system prompt that doesn't mention the model name. that said, if they bootstrapped with opus 4.6 convo sft data they had sitting around... so what?

The main story is what isn't being talked about. Chinese labs exfiltrated trillions of tokens of high-quality output from Anthropic and OpenAI, through proxies and heavily discounted token resellers, which they distilled and used for training data for their own models. Instead of spending 12-18 months building their own robust harnesses and painstakingly creating quality training data (which is what Anthropic and Ope…

They stole from me first. And are spitting in my face and telling me they’ll take my job while they do it. I have negative sympathy for them.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#485

Post by dgellow »

t0mpr1c3 wrote: post #168
dgellow wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US might pressure them?

EU countries are homeshoring their digital stacks as fast as they possibly can, and the reason is precisely because of the pressure that the US government is exerting via its (temporary) dominance in technology.

That’s really something that has to be seen, we (European countries) talk a lot about sovereign software but have very little to show for it. Things are moving but it’s still mostly a political posturing more than anything else. Might be different in a few years

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#486

Post by MrBuddyCasino »

resonious wrote: post #293
jrflo wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need to stop using $/M tokens as the pricing benchmark. I've found that the number of tokens used tends to be a bigger factor than the listed per token price. The cost per task vs. intelligence curve is really what you care about, and in my estimation Chinese models are just not there. They are focused on benchmaxing and getting the highest raw score they can, rather than efficiency.

The artificialanalysis cost per task chart has DeepSeek as the clear winner and Fable as the clear loser. But I would still pick Fable for some tasks, so that also can't be all there is to it. But I agree that price per token figure is not great. It seems even the tokens per character can vary between models, so it's basically useless.

Almost as if centuries of passing the imperial exam by either skill or cheating influenced Chinese culture a lot.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#487

Post by girvo »

tristanj wrote: post #435
remexre wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if Ford bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Hyundais, put extra instrumentation in them, and resold them at a discount to customers who agreed to the instrumentation in exchange for the discount, is Ford doing industrial espionage?

You skipped the part where Ford buys the cars at 90% off and sells them at 80% off, at a profit. Then gets paid by competitors for the driving data. At the same time, Volvo is running the exact same hustle, except they buy the cars with stolen credit cards, so they get the cars for free.

Don’t sell your cars at a loss then.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#488

Post by dgellow »

Danox wrote: post #128
dgellow wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US might pressure them?

Those days are gone. Look no further than the occupant in the White House. IE the Swedish jet industry is about to get bigger, future drone expertise, if the Ukraine can hold on if you want to learn the ins and outs, you don’t need the United States. If you’re serious about learning and building drones. It’s going to be a different world, a world where many former allies are not gonna look to the United States first…

It’s not gone yet, the US is still a bully with a lot of power and with access to quite a lot of levers to pressure other actors. Actually, our (Europe) weak response to US aggression and threats has been disappointing so far. We will see how that evolves, the EU is slow to react

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#489

Post by tristanj »

anon373839 wrote: post #480
tristanj wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You skipped the part where Ford buys the cars at 90% off and sells them at 80% off, at a profit. Then gets paid by competitors for the driving data. At the same time, Volvo is running the exact same hustle, except they buy the cars with stolen credit cards, so they get the cars for free.

You skipped the part where Hyundai chose to sell the cars at loss in the hopes of eventually gaining a monopoly position.

Misleading on both counts:

1) Anthropic tokens via subscription aren't sold at a loss, they're sold at cost.

2) Subscription plans are not sold in hopes of eventually gaining a monopoly position. They act as a loss leader designed to get a foot-in-the-door and funnel companies into costly enterprise plans, where Anthropic can charge full API rates.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#490

Post by dbbk »

cuuupid wrote: post #182
dbbk wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The O-1 has also been abused for a long time, basically any software engineer kid who gets into Y Combinator has been getting an O-1

This is essentially the point of the visa, it feels wrong especially as YC drops standards and increases cohort sizes, but the same power laws that keep them winning also apply here in maximizing economic value of each O-1 approval Basically of all visas O-1 is virtually guaranteed to have highly positive economic value

It's not the point of the visa, the O-1 is supposed to be for people of extraordinary ability, eg Nobel Prize winners. It's used for software engineers.
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