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AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

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Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#31

Post by ben_w »

rogerkirkness wrote: post #4
Insanity wrote: post #2

At least the dot com crash left us with m useful infrastructure. And it didn’t price regular customer out of the computer market. Going to have to sell a kidney to build a new gaming PC the next few years.

Around 2002 there was way more internet bandwidth and infrastructure available than utilized, eventually (not immediately) leading to business models like Netflix current one. I do think a lot about what the AI analogy will be.

> I do think a lot about what the AI analogy will be.

I suspect improved power supplies and some downloadable weights.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#32

Post by brazukadev »

jdw64 wrote: post #21
brazukadev wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big chance it is happening now. SpaceX lost almost 50% of its ATH value. It will continue dropping. OpenAI and Anthropic won't be able to raise money but they need to. Things are about to get uglier fast.

I also think this bubble will burst. But what I'm curious about is this: most of these arguments are just unfalsifiable alibis. They're just claims, and I want to know when and how it will burst. Most scenarios are way too vague

Are you really asking for someone to be right about when a bubble will burst?

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#33

Post by rmunn »

grebc wrote: post #30
zulux wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, my blind spot has been China. They've maintained their bubble economy for decades longer than I (and a few other smarter people than me) think possible.

Maybe their economy isn’t as bubble like as you think?

I've seen many analysts say (I'm no expert myself so I'd have a hard time judging) that the official government figures for things like GDP and so on cannot possibly be accurate. (And before you ask "Which figures, which years, what degree of inaccuracy?" — you'll need to ask someone who actually knows). Which does make it kind of hard to figure anything out about China's economy from outside.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#34

Post by grebc »

rmunn wrote: post #33
grebc wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe their economy isn’t as bubble like as you think?

I've seen many analysts say (I'm no expert myself so I'd have a hard time judging) that the official government figures for things like GDP and so on cannot possibly be accurate. (And before you ask "Which figures, which years, what degree of inaccuracy?" — you'll need to ask someone who actually knows). Which does make it kind of hard to figure anything out about China's economy from outside.

I’ve heard the same. They keep on chugging along despite all the doom mongers.

I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#35

Post by zulux »

grebc wrote: post #34
rmunn wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen many analysts say (I'm no expert myself so I'd have a hard time judging) that the official government figures for things like GDP and so on cannot possibly be accurate. (And before you ask "Which figures, which years, what degree of inaccuracy?" — you'll need to ask someone who actually knows). Which does make it kind of hard to figure anything out about China's economy from outside.

I’ve heard the same. They keep on chugging along despite all the doom mongers. I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.

Yes... and no. DJI/BYD, etc are legit amazing. But entire ghost cities filled with unused condos scream bubble.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_...

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#36

Post by [deleted] »

abtestdev wrote: post #24
teravor wrote: post #13

we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens. suppose the current frontier models are final and there is no more progress. it still wouldn't matter because the cheaper the tokens the more demand there will be which will drive the silicon demand onward. consider what you can do if a billion tokens cost cents: you could create a scaffold that would literally burn ungodly numbers of tokens on every co…

There is no evidence that billions of tokens will ever cost cents. The raw infrastructure cost alone is massive. That's why you see services now charging usage based pricing, because continuing to subsidize inference costs is unsustainable long term.

[deleted]

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#37

Post by grebc »

zulux wrote: post #35
grebc wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve heard the same. They keep on chugging along despite all the doom mongers. I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.

Yes... and no. DJI/BYD, etc are legit amazing. But entire ghost cities filled with unused condos scream bubble. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_...

They’ve been around for ages now, if it hasn’t rocked the boat when their real estate market has been subdued, I’m not sure what will.
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