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AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

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Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#21

Post by jdw64 »

brazukadev wrote: post #16
jdw64 wrote: post #7

Everyone feels it's a bubble, but the key question is when it will burst. People keep pointing this out in so many places, from Closed loops to everything else. I wish someone would just predict when that moment will come I've seen so many of these articles that I'm actually looking forward to a YouTube video or article that talks about a techno-feudal future, where API tenant farmers become the scenario if AI compan…

There is a big chance it is happening now. SpaceX lost almost 50% of its ATH value. It will continue dropping. OpenAI and Anthropic won't be able to raise money but they need to. Things are about to get uglier fast.

I also think this bubble will burst. But what I'm curious about is this: most of these arguments are just unfalsifiable alibis. They're just claims, and I want to know when and how it will burst. Most scenarios are way too vague

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#22

Post by clipsy »

oleg_kabanov wrote: post #19

The main trend is that models are moving out of cloud to local setup to avoid paying for tokens. This becomes possible due to free open-source models like Kimi K3 that already reached level of the best commercial models. The second trend is that AI is not mature enough to be used as a human replacement. Maybe as a helper, but even then they need close guidance and check. All these talks about autonomous agents, AI em…

> The main trend is that models are moving out of cloud to local setup to avoid paying for tokens. This becomes possible due to free open-source models like Kimi K3 that already reached level of the best commercial models.

Who on earth is running a 1.8T parameter model locally? The hardware to do that with a usable token/s rate for a single person is (at least) well into 5 figure territory.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#23

Post by jzu48 »

teravor wrote: post #13

we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens. suppose the current frontier models are final and there is no more progress. it still wouldn't matter because the cheaper the tokens the more demand there will be which will drive the silicon demand onward. consider what you can do if a billion tokens cost cents: you could create a scaffold that would literally burn ungodly numbers of tokens on every co…

> we know that there is a document in the space of all possible documents which holds an answer to every conceivable solvable problem.

So you think reality is static and not an ever growing ever changing process?

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#24

Post by abtestdev »

teravor wrote: post #13

we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens. suppose the current frontier models are final and there is no more progress. it still wouldn't matter because the cheaper the tokens the more demand there will be which will drive the silicon demand onward. consider what you can do if a billion tokens cost cents: you could create a scaffold that would literally burn ungodly numbers of tokens on every co…

There is no evidence that billions of tokens will ever cost cents. The raw infrastructure cost alone is massive. That's why you see services now charging usage based pricing, because continuing to subsidize inference costs is unsustainable long term.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#25

Post by senectus1 »

teravor wrote: post #13

we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens. suppose the current frontier models are final and there is no more progress. it still wouldn't matter because the cheaper the tokens the more demand there will be which will drive the silicon demand onward. consider what you can do if a billion tokens cost cents: you could create a scaffold that would literally burn ungodly numbers of tokens on every co…

>we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens.

yes but who will pay for them.

I fear it will be tax payers and consumers of high end products... everyone else else can go eat dirt.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#26

Post by bryanlarsen »

abtestdev wrote: post #24
teravor wrote: post #13

we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens. suppose the current frontier models are final and there is no more progress. it still wouldn't matter because the cheaper the tokens the more demand there will be which will drive the silicon demand onward. consider what you can do if a billion tokens cost cents: you could create a scaffold that would literally burn ungodly numbers of tokens on every co…

There is no evidence that billions of tokens will ever cost cents. The raw infrastructure cost alone is massive. That's why you see services now charging usage based pricing, because continuing to subsidize inference costs is unsustainable long term.

cents per billion is only 3 orders of magnitude reduction in cost. I can see 6 or so happening in the next decade or so.

1. Like any commodity, I expect the price to converge to the marginal cost. The marginal cost is the price of electricity which is currently 10% or so of the cost of inference.

2. I expect the cost of electricity to go down an order of magnitude. Solar power and batteries are getting cheaper fast.

3. As the price of electricity starts dominating costs, you can drastically reduce costs by by taking advantage of electricity price variations. Build data centers all around the world and answer requests from the part of the world where the sun is shining.

4. Moore's law

5. Algorithm improvements

6. Moving from general purpose chips to chips that are highly optimized for inference.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#27

Post by jemmyw »

jdw64 wrote: post #21
brazukadev wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big chance it is happening now. SpaceX lost almost 50% of its ATH value. It will continue dropping. OpenAI and Anthropic won't be able to raise money but they need to. Things are about to get uglier fast.

I also think this bubble will burst. But what I'm curious about is this: most of these arguments are just unfalsifiable alibis. They're just claims, and I want to know when and how it will burst. Most scenarios are way too vague

isn't that the point of bubbles: nearly impossible to predict when they'll burst?

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#28

Post by returnInfinity »

not going to watch this

if there is a bubble, then watch out for money supply. if it contracts because of interest rates or some random reason, then bubble will collapse.(if there was a bubble)

also iran war, nobody know what will happen if it escalates to full scale war. nothing good will happen, that's for sure.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#29

Post by grebc »

rogerkirkness wrote: post #4
Insanity wrote: post #2

At least the dot com crash left us with m useful infrastructure. And it didn’t price regular customer out of the computer market. Going to have to sell a kidney to build a new gaming PC the next few years.

Around 2002 there was way more internet bandwidth and infrastructure available than utilized, eventually (not immediately) leading to business models like Netflix current one. I do think a lot about what the AI analogy will be.

Think of how crypto bro’s transitioned to AI bro’s. Same peeps, same hardware, still all looking for a real problem to solve.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#30

Post by grebc »

zulux wrote: post #12
rmunn wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not going to predict the moment, because I thought the dotcom bubble would pop back in 1999. I could see how overvalued things were, what I couldn't predict was how long the market would remain irrational.

For me, my blind spot has been China. They've maintained their bubble economy for decades longer than I (and a few other smarter people than me) think possible.

Maybe their economy isn’t as bubble like as you think?
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