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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#271

Post by vor_ »

infecto wrote: post #60
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

I must say, "great financial engineering" serves as an amazing spin on "scam."

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#272

Post by incognition »

MinimalAction wrote: post #18

As a scientific adventure, SpaceX is a worthy company full of awesome people. But the management and VCs is another story, as usual. To price it at a market cap of $1.8T, somewhere double that of Walmart is insane.

how much should two walmarts be worth?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#273

Post by jjav »

ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

> This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen.

Not even remotely. Many startups IPO with no profit (though not all), but there is nearly always a credible business plan and a semi-rational valuation.

None of this is the case for spcx. They claim their TAM is about the size of the entire GPD of the USA and that they'll soon have 1T/yr in profits. All based on... nothing. The numbers are wildly unrealistic by a multiple never before seen. Oh and full self driving will be here before end of this year, trust them.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#274

Post by jjav »

oblio wrote: post #213
gwerbin wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aramark is a horrible company for comparison. Maybe the only thing they have in common with SpaceX is that they are publicly traded companies. I'm not saying that SpaceX is a good investment or that Musk isn't trying to run a scam on index investors. But we also shouldn't be surprised that the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider are a little different from those of a spaceflight company / da…

LOL. I'm not American, I chose Aramark at random because... ... Aramark has the same revenue as SpaceX: https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/... You've just told me that "the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider" are better than those of SpaceX. Aramark is profitable and SpaceX is wildly unprofitable[1] :-))) * * * [1] Almost nothing SpaceX does points at SpaceX scaling…

> Aramark is profitable and SpaceX is wildly unprofitable

Yes but TSLA will be self-driving in Mars soon and therefore.... profit!

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#275

Post by jjav »

infecto wrote: post #105
bobro wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you spell out a bit more how these three thoughts live together consistently for you: 1) The price is insane 2) The price is a work of great financial engineering 3) The price isn’t a scam

They're perfectly consistent. An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. Exceptional capital formation isn't fraud either. You're conflating overpriced, good at raising money and scam as if they're synonyms. I am curious how the absurd bank price targets will play out in the long-term and if there will be any repercussions but its hard to immediately jump to scam but I realize this is the favorite fan-fic for folk…

> An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud.

For a public company that is certainly true. The valuation is determined by the market as a whole, so there can be no fraud.

But the fraud is in the profitability claims, such as 1T/yr in just a few years, which are clearly completely fabricated nonsense. No company officer should be allowed to make such claims without being removed from office.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#276

Post by mparramon »

root_axis wrote: post #265
grosswait wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because anti-Elon thinking is a thing that really seems to impact the judgement of some people and this kind of news really gets them to engage

The "anti-Elon thinking" comes from the things Elon says and does.

Like?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#277

Post by 2PqboPPmKegvanx »

infecto wrote: post #100
epistasis wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear why you don't think it's a scam, because "he is a great financial engineer" seems awfully close to admitting that and then the "platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline" seems to be the clincher that it is indeed a scam. For example, he's talking about data centers in space as the "everything else coming through the pipeline" and space data centers are an obvious engineering boondo…

I think you're collapsing a few different concepts together. Calling something a scam implied intentional deception about the underlying business. I don't think that's the same as selling an extremely optimistic vision at a valuation I personally think is unjustifiable. Plenty of companies have traded at prices that assumed almost everythign would go right. Most of those expectations eventually proved wrong but that…

>Calling something a scam implied intentional deception about the underlying business

SPCX says their TAM is $29 Trillion, an intentionally deceptive number. Anything they say about Mars is an intentional deception, at least until they develop a lander or a habitat or select one (1) astronaut for this.

There is a difference in wearing rose colored glasses and saying wild shit to deceive people.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#278

Post by 2PqboPPmKegvanx »

jjav wrote: post #275
infecto wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're perfectly consistent. An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. Exceptional capital formation isn't fraud either. You're conflating overpriced, good at raising money and scam as if they're synonyms. I am curious how the absurd bank price targets will play out in the long-term and if there will be any repercussions but its hard to immediately jump to scam but I realize this is the favorite fan-fic for folk…

> An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. For a public company that is certainly true. The valuation is determined by the market as a whole, so there can be no fraud. But the fraud is in the profitability claims, such as 1T/yr in just a few years, which are clearly completely fabricated nonsense. No company officer should be allowed to make such claims without being removed from office.

>No company officer should be allowed to make such claims without being removed from office.

Any other company officer in a fortune 100 company would be removed from office if they made claims like this. The single reason he isn't is because he owns something like 80 something percent of voting power.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#279

Post by intrasight »

throw0101d wrote: post #87
intrasight wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many IPO's have the same trajectory that SpaceX did - first going up steeply and then dropping steeply. So there's certainly money to be made if you get the timing right but that is always the challenge.

Worth considering that "trading" and "investing" are different words. :)

Yes. And you can do both against the same equity at the same time. SpaceX is a good candidate for this due to short-term volatility and long-term strength.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#280

Post by infecto »

2PqboPPmKegvanx wrote: post #278
jjav wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. For a public company that is certainly true. The valuation is determined by the market as a whole, so there can be no fraud. But the fraud is in the profitability claims, such as 1T/yr in just a few years, which are clearly completely fabricated nonsense. No company officer should be allowed to make such claims without being removed from office.

>No company officer should be allowed to make such claims without being removed from office. Any other company officer in a fortune 100 company would be removed from office if they made claims like this. The single reason he isn't is because he owns something like 80 something percent of voting power.

No different than Meta or Snap but folks only like to think about Elon.
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