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Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

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Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#851
post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is strategy by Chinese government, so much of US economy is invested in AI. Releasing free or cheap versions of the models undermines US economic growth. It’s asymmetric strategy that makes sense if you are close second in AI race. If situation is reversed, US would do the same.

Google did this by creating Android to undercut Apple. Many US tech firms did this strategy in the 2000s and 2010s of supporting open source alternatives to their opponent's closed source money maker, to undercut the competition. Back then, it let open source have a big boost and we all benefited from that. Hopefully open weights models will do the same so that AI can be more democratized. I wouldn't want to live in…

> Google did this by creating Android to undercut Apple.

Android was created to compete with Blackberry, Google then acquired Android.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#853
post #845

GPT 5.6* throw fits on anything even remotely related to reverse engineering, and I'm not ever paying anything more than $20 to Anthropic anymore. How's Kimi in this area?

I've used K2.6 and K2.7 for binary reversing with a Ghidra skill. Very competent at mapping out flows and patterns, working in tandem with me too implement what I wanted to implement. I couldn't persuade GPT 5.6 to do this either. Was very impressed by Kimi, though it was on the slow side.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#854
post #584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Umm, Fable only really came out 2 weeks ago, and GPT-5.6 Sol only 1 week ago. Yes, Kimi K3 appears a touch below them both, but above all other models. So I'd say a few weeks behind, not months now...

Frontier labs release frontier models to the public only if there is market pressure to do so. Anthropic is not even hiding that they have been using Mythos internally for months now. I wouldn’t be surprised if OpenAI (so much for “open”) is using GPT-6 internally already. It appears that peasants like us are not going to get access to frontier AI anymore at any price.

very unlikely that they are holding models back. models are very quickly depreciating in value and have internal cutoff dates. that would really not make sense from a business perspective. and doing an entire training run without commercializing it also seems like a huge waste.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#855
post #783
post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there was some grand strategy for all Chinese labs, surely it'd have leaked by now. I think its more likely that: - Companies can still make money from commodities - Chinese labs only have 5-10% the valuation of OpenAI/Anthropic, so massive monopoly profits aren't necessary. Profit expectations for tech companies in China are really low in general, complete opposite of the US. - Open weighting is a great way to ge…

Apparently open source models is an officially stated national strategy now, which is somewhat reassuring that we'll probably keep getting these for a while. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-promote...

In his speech https://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/20260717/72728b6f... Xi Jinping mentioned "open source" (开源) exactly once in a list of buzzwords. Deriving from that an "officially stated national strategy" that ensures the free beer won't stop flowing is motivated reasoning. The most popular LLM chatbot in China is Bytedance's Doubao. Do you think this national strategy will involve forcing them to release their weights?

Another buzzword mentioned by Xi is "safety and controllability" (安全可控), which is generally in tension with open source, since that involves giving up control. Historically, when there's a conflict between openness and controllability, the Chinese government tends to choose control, see the Great Firewall.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#856
post #783
post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there was some grand strategy for all Chinese labs, surely it'd have leaked by now. I think its more likely that: - Companies can still make money from commodities - Chinese labs only have 5-10% the valuation of OpenAI/Anthropic, so massive monopoly profits aren't necessary. Profit expectations for tech companies in China are really low in general, complete opposite of the US. - Open weighting is a great way to ge…

Apparently open source models is an officially stated national strategy now, which is somewhat reassuring that we'll probably keep getting these for a while. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-promote...

Until it's no longer officially stated strategy, and something else benefits the CCP. See rare earths policy. Changes constantly, to whatever maximizes their leverage.

The aspect that you can count on is that China sees AI as a long term strategic necessity, so they will support domestic players for an extremely long time. But unless you're a Chinese lab that shouldn't necessarily be a comfort to anyone else.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have severe complaints about Anthropic's product managers on this front. Their preference for hiding, obscuring, and trying to wrest control from the user are a bit harrowing. It would be wonderful to go back to Claude Code from before March. It seems like every release destroys value for me!

It's a defensive tactic to reduce the effectiveness of distillation. Say of that what you will, but it's not because they want to wrest control from users. It's because they don't want Chinese companies to do exactly what Moonshot (Kimi creators) and others have done.

According to Pat Toulme, the thinking traces and outputs that the Chinese researchers distilled are useful for getting initial trajectories, to prevent a cold start during RL. Once you get those initial correct trajectories (the model actually solving a task), you can generate you own new traces, so the distillation is already done, there is no need for further reasoning traces. Sure they could probably get better alignment with the frontier by distilling fruther, but in any case the damage is already done, at this point hiding reasoning is mostly just hurting users

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#858
post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is strategy by Chinese government, so much of US economy is invested in AI. Releasing free or cheap versions of the models undermines US economic growth. It’s asymmetric strategy that makes sense if you are close second in AI race. If situation is reversed, US would do the same.

> so much of US economy is invested in AI. This is a talking point that plays into the frontier labs' desire to be seen as "too big to fail". While yes, several hundred billion dollars have been invested in AI, (a) much of this is in the form of circular Monopoly-money deals, and (b) the US GDP is over $30 trillion annually. The real economy - the one that makes food, builds homes, provides medical care, etc. - is so…

The "real economy" in the US is in complete shambles right now while everyone is distracted by AI meme money.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#859

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an attack on USA's AI tech giants. Destroy any hope of profitability, prevent further capitalization, ultimately bankrupt them. Hasten the popping of the AI bubble. Drag down the stock market. Put a dent in the GDP (alleged growth). Cause investors to pull back, further depressing economy. Devalue the dollar. Kicking off an interest rate doom loop. Challenge USA's hegemonic role in the emergent multi-polar (post…

US "AI tech giants" are foaming at the mouth about "dangers" ans "safety", about "how US customers can not be trusted with AI", how much everybody should pay them, and how many $Trillions should they make, at US customers' expense. For each "AI tech giant", there are millions of other US companies that will benefit from broader AI availability. US economy (and US tech economy) != Anthropic + OpenAI.

Absolutely.

Every other player, especially domestic, would benefit if USA's monopolies get busted. Ditto usurers, trusts, monopsonies, cartels, etc.

Re: Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence

#860
post #111

Pelican: https://tools.simonwillison.net/markdown-svg-renderer#url=ht... - rendered via the OpenRouter API: https://openrouter.ai/moonshotai/kimi-k3 95 input, 16,658 output = 25 cents! https://www.llm-prices.com/#it=95&ot=16658&ic=3&oc=15 (13,241 of those were reasoning tokens.) I think that's the most expensive pelican I've rendered through a Chinese model so far.

Hey Simon, I noticed one thing all LLMs are currently pretty bad at and maybe we could create a benchmark from it. Let an LLM play the role of a dungeon master and tell it to strictly stay in the script/story and only allow realistic player actions. You will notice that they are easily brought off track. E.g. - Tell the LLM that you as a player noticed a strange glow in an NPCs eyes -> the NPC becomes an enemy. - In…

i found exactly the same thing trying to revive a text based game, a tool would be helpul.
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