Live data from Hacker News

AI 2040: Plan A

ai-2040.com

551–560 of 567 posts

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Effective altruism is also very attractive to manipulative sociopaths who want to maximise their power over others whilst appearing virtuous and hoarding wealth and power. Poster boy for this movement is the convicted fraudster SBF. I believe Altman is also a fan. As to a better world or super intelligence, I’ll believe it may be possible when I see some signs of intelligence from what people are calling AI, instead…

And what movement isn’t attractive to manipulative sociopaths who want to maximize their power? That’s unavoidable when dealing with humans.

Well I think there is a definite pattern to sociopaths using a movement that seems externally good and has many true believers - like say an open foundation to promote AI, or effective altruism. Then twisting it to their own ends to gain power, influence and wealth.

We should therefore be very skeptical of people claiming altruistic motives while requiring that they be in control.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#552
post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there are some coding focused models (composer, for example), the majority of frontier models are pitched as general purpose. The coding harnesses for Claude and GPT are even being repurposed as general purpose knowledge work harnesses.

No, you're right of course, but I have a feeling it's much easier to sell a system with a clear goal, like "this LLM generates code" or "this LLM solves math problems". Even if the underlying model is a general purpose one. I think there's always a question, when one has a product, of "what does it do?". "This thing does everything you want it to" is not a great way to sell something. More to the point, even models m…

> real-world autonomy isn't really working

It works in limited ways (but in the realest-real world nevetheless). Waymo, Wayve, Baidu Apollo, Tesla and others seem to rely on VLAs, VLMs or transformer models in general to do autonomous driving.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you actually read the text? OPs are calling that Plan D. They're proposing an alternative, which is a global brake on frontier AI research to keep the basilisk in its jar until we work out what we're dealing with and how to handle it.

No, they're proposing a spying panopticon and state control of global resource distribution - specifically general purpose compute - including seizing and destroying GPUs. They're proposing a totalitarian global dictatorship controlling computing hardware and software. Lest you think I'm being hyperbolic: https://ai-2040.com/supplements/covert-ai-projects This is arsonists selling fire insurance.

A nasty global inspections regime just like we have for nuclear weapons, which are less dangerous than this. Oh no ...

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#554
post #526
post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now this is an unserious comment, just throwing insults without explaining your reasoning at all. Do you believe that AI itself is worthless? Or that it's just incapable of causing harm? Do you resent the safeguards placed on AI because they are personally inconvenient to you? When introducing a new technology at this scale, don't you think it's worth looking before leaping?

So called "AI safety researchers" are themselves unserious so of course I don't take them seriously. LLMs are extremely useful, I use them constantly for a wide variety of tasks. LLMs don't cause harm: humans cause harm. There's no real need to intentionally cripple or restrict the models in the name of "safety"; that's just stupid and done only to prevent corporate embarrassment.

Is that your line with nuclear weapons too; that it's the humans cause harm, so you don't need to regulate them?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#555
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is commoditisation of models incompatible with AGI?

If we can solve 99% of the world's problems with current non-AGI models then nobody besides a select few will care about AGI

They will if the remainder use AGI to empower themselves at everybody's expense.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, there are examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue a particular technology tree. For one, Japan banned guns for a few centuries. (Its warrior class was politically powerful and judged that guns would disrupt class relations too much.) And there have been successful world-wide bans. For example, following the invention of recombinant DNA technology, scientists convened the Asilomar Conference in…

> " For one, Japan banned guns for a few centuries. (Its warrior class was politically powerful and judged that guns would disrupt class relations too much.) " That example works against the argument since that policy was rendered moot when Commodore Perry arrived at Japan in 1853 with a squadron of American warships and demanded opening of trade and diplomatic relations at gunpoint.

That's what inspections are for.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you're right of course, but I have a feeling it's much easier to sell a system with a clear goal, like "this LLM generates code" or "this LLM solves math problems". Even if the underlying model is a general purpose one. I think there's always a question, when one has a product, of "what does it do?". "This thing does everything you want it to" is not a great way to sell something. More to the point, even models m…

> real-world autonomy isn't really working It works in limited ways (but in the realest-real world nevetheless). Waymo, Wayve, Baidu Apollo, Tesla and others seem to rely on VLAs, VLMs or transformer models in general to do autonomous driving.

Unfortunately those don't really work:

https://youtu.be/C4NQNeSO2vs?si=epkxhVXpypOCppGW

Also, none of those companies' cars are really autonomous. Waymo, for example, relies on remote workers that are ready to intervene and suggest a course of action when the AI driver gets stuck:

https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/

And the point is that the AI driver gets stuck because it can't understand the situation it is in. That's not autonomy. Not yet.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> real-world autonomy isn't really working It works in limited ways (but in the realest-real world nevetheless). Waymo, Wayve, Baidu Apollo, Tesla and others seem to rely on VLAs, VLMs or transformer models in general to do autonomous driving.

Unfortunately those don't really work: https://youtu.be/C4NQNeSO2vs?si=epkxhVXpypOCppGW Also, none of those companies' cars are really autonomous. Waymo, for example, relies on remote workers that are ready to intervene and suggest a course of action when the AI driver gets stuck: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/ And the point is that the AI driver gets stuck because it can't understand the situation it…

Non-trivial percentage of people work in the real world until they do something stupid and work no more. It's not real autonomy, not yet.

It's a matter of degree. Sorry, I don't want to watch an hour long video to be told how something that works 99.99% of the time doesn't really work for some contrived definition of "really".

BTW, as is typical with people, remote operators occasionally cause problems.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> real-world autonomy isn't really working It works in limited ways (but in the realest-real world nevetheless). Waymo, Wayve, Baidu Apollo, Tesla and others seem to rely on VLAs, VLMs or transformer models in general to do autonomous driving.

Unfortunately those don't really work: https://youtu.be/C4NQNeSO2vs?si=epkxhVXpypOCppGW Also, none of those companies' cars are really autonomous. Waymo, for example, relies on remote workers that are ready to intervene and suggest a course of action when the AI driver gets stuck: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/ And the point is that the AI driver gets stuck because it can't understand the situation it…

> https://youtu.be/C4NQNeSO2vs?si=epkxhVXpypOCppGW

"VLAs fine-tuned on human demonstrations overfit. Here's how to mitigate it." Er, OK, I guess. But I think that Waymo uses mitigations or a different approach (RL, for example).

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately those don't really work: https://youtu.be/C4NQNeSO2vs?si=epkxhVXpypOCppGW Also, none of those companies' cars are really autonomous. Waymo, for example, relies on remote workers that are ready to intervene and suggest a course of action when the AI driver gets stuck: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/ And the point is that the AI driver gets stuck because it can't understand the situation it…

Non-trivial percentage of people work in the real world until they do something stupid and work no more. It's not real autonomy, not yet. It's a matter of degree. Sorry, I don't want to watch an hour long video to be told how something that works 99.99% of the time doesn't really work for some contrived definition of "really". BTW, as is typical with people, remote operators occasionally cause problems.

Fair if you don't want to watch the entire video. The VLA stuff is early in the video but I can summarise it for you (if you trust me to do so): basically none of the current deep learning based approaches to autonomy generalise. Not RL, not transformers, not anything else. They all tend to work fine in environments and tasks within their training set but outside of it, pffft, performance evaporates. That's my summary.

It's really not about 99,9% correct. Rather that's the error you can expect when you deploy such systems to the real world. You can start building an intuition about this if you consider the combinatorial space that these systems must search to find the right action in a given situation. Most of those systems are trained on images i.e. sets of pixels (some also have more sensors like lidar which just blows up the combinatorics even more). Specifically what these systems learn is a function mapping a set of pixels to actuator commands, essentially mapping input images to actions. For an RBG image of 128 x 128, there's (256^3)^(127^2) = 16,777,216 ^ 16,384 = 6.468074e+118369 unique combinations of pixels. Each of those has to be mapped to one of k actuator commands where k is sometimes an integer, sometimes a real. As you can see, that's an insanely high number and there is no way to make a dent in it even with millions of examples of images-to-actions.

Now of course deep learning approaches have shown remarkable, stunning ability in powering through gigantic combinatorial spaces - but all those successful applications are in domains where it is not necessary to map the entire space of inputs to outputs, not even a big chunk of it. Consider the success in board games like chess and Go both of which have huge search spaces, as often pointed out with cardinalities larger than the number of atoms in the universe etc. Yes, but an automated system doesn't have to search that entire space to beat a human: like the joke with the two guys trying to outrun a bear, all the deep learning system need do is search further than a human can search. Or, consider image classification or language generation: even 20% error (which is what you get in real world situations, as opposed to "in the lab" testing on specific datasets like ImageNet) is OK a lot of the time. So what if your image classifier thinks a cat is an impala? Nobody dies. Mostly.

That's not the case in the real world where a system can be expected to continuously find itself in situations that are either subtly or wildly different than the ones in its training set and the stakes are very high. 20% error in that setting doesn't work. If the robot can't deal with a previously unseen situation it can very well destroy itself, and cause an unknown amount of damage besides. The real world is as unforgiving as it is unpredictable; and non-ergodic (i.e. trying stuff at random until you find the thing that works, doesn't work).

Self-driving cars are ultimately made to work with very careful, good, old-fashioned manual engineering, including detailed mapping of an area where the system is restricted etc. That is why e.g. you see Waymo rolling out its cars slowly from one city to the next: if their systems were really autonomous they could just deploy them anywhere a human driver can drive. From New York to Mumbai and from Athens to London. The fact they can't is the strongest evidence that whatever proprietary secret sauce moat they have... doesn't really work.

The "really" I keep dropping in there all the time is suspicious, I know, but that's not entirely my fault. Waymo and all the others claim that their systems are "autonomous". I have to bat that back by saying, no, they're not autonomous. Then there's going to be a lengthy, pedantic discussion about what is "autonomous". So I try to avoid that, in my opinion unproductive, exchange with the "really" hedge. Maybe not such a good idea. I'm open to suggestions to improve the clarity of my language.

Post reply on HN