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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#141

Post by kibwen »

indoordin0saur wrote: post #128
bobro wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you spell out a bit more how these three thoughts live together consistently for you: 1) The price is insane 2) The price is a work of great financial engineering 3) The price isn’t a scam

It's a scam only if you think the stock market in general is a scam. Remember, SpaceX is completely globally dominant in its industries (launch technology and orbital telecom)

> It's a scam only if you think the stock market in general is a scam.

So in other words, yes, it's a scam.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#143

Post by taeric »

tw04 wrote: post #138
ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

Really? Which other IPO involves a company acquiring a completely unrelated company just before IPO in order to bail the founder out of a bad investment? Can you name even one example in the last 50 years?

To be fair, I think they just meant the stock price shape post IPO. Jumped up, then fell back down.

That said, I'm also not sure how accurate that is.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#144

Post by genericresponse »

abtinf wrote: post #103

I’m way out of my depth in suggesting this idea, so forgive me if I’m committing a conceptual “divide by zero” and it’s not even wrong: It seems like the SpaceX IPO really breaks the traditional notion of market cap. Market cap has an unstated assumption that most of a company’s stock could, in theory, be traded unencumbered. Thus shares * price gives a very rough view of the value of the company. Everyone understand…

You're not wrong, but the weakness you point out isn't a new concept.

Market cap is, at best, a rough valuation of the company. It has many confounding variables of which liquidity can be one of them. That's part of why investment analysts put out price targets for companies. The counterpoint is that market price is driven by what people are actually paying.

One of the major challenges with valuation is settling on a methodology overall. There are many ways, appropriate and not, to value a company. Many will have different estimates for value. There are also factors, like control premium, that start to become relevant when you try to completely acquire a company.

One of the benefits of an open and liquid market is that future availability of locked shares can be priced in early. We all get the benefit of consensus information.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#145

Post by infecto »

oblio wrote: post #123
infecto wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're perfectly consistent. An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. Exceptional capital formation isn't fraud either. You're conflating overpriced, good at raising money and scam as if they're synonyms. I am curious how the absurd bank price targets will play out in the long-term and if there will be any repercussions but its hard to immediately jump to scam but I realize this is the favorite fan-fic for folk…

What about Musk gutting government agencies (including the SEC) through DOGE? Or Musk pushing NASDAQ & co to fast track SpaceX into their indexes, to force institutional investors to buy SpaceX? Or about Musk & others weakening analyst protection through the current US administration cutting legal failsafes so that now basically every analyst on the market never releases negative share projections? At which point do…

I did not realize that is what we were discussing. Just because I don't like someone (I don't like musk) does not mean I will immediately jump to the harshest classification. I could never get behind the valuations, I don't generally like how he behaves but I also recognize that he historically has done a great job at financial engineering and serving as a hypeman, both can be true at the same time for me.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#146

Post by soulofmischief »

ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

It's a scam because of the hype mind control and propaganda around it. Because Musk tried to force it into the NASDAQ and S&P 500 before the normal windows, attempting to bypass sensible regulations that protect investors.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#147

Post by indoordin0saur »

Octoth0rpe wrote: post #75
petilon wrote: post #70

SpaceX, despite its name is an AI company, supposedly. Its S-1 states that the company estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion, or 92.98%, is expected to come from AI. SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Until Jan 2026 SpaceX was an aerospace company. Then xAI was merged into SpaceX on January 30, 2026, so SpaceX became an AI company less than 6 months ago…

> SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Unless they manage to build such a model, then their plan looks like they intend to be an AI _infrastructure_ company. Which is probably viable and healthy business! One with lots of competition and low margins that is completely misaligned with their current valuation.

All these bans on building data centers on Earth are starting to make this wild proposition seem a little more rational.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#149

Post by nxm »

ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

So I presume you made a lot of money shorting the stock if you were so confident?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#150

Post by indoordin0saur »

vladmk wrote: post #11

I’m really tempted to buy a chunk right now lol

I'm thinking that over the course of the next 10-18 months the price should continue to come down as pre-IPO shareholders become unlocked and can sell their shares.
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