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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#351

Post by nradov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #327
nradov wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You appear to have misunderstood the role of the SEC. They will investigate civil violations of securities laws but there has been no credible allegation of such here. They don't take responsibility for stock valuation.

> They don't take responsibility for stock valuation. Nice strawman, but that's not what I said. They can, and do, intervene in things like lying to investors to inflate valuations.

What is the specific lie in this case? I mean something that's factually incorrect, not just optimistic.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#352

Post by marcosdumay »

therobots927 wrote: post #310
marcosdumay wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That. I'm personally on the team that think it's honest. But then they have to explain why their marketing numbers are so weird.

I don’t know how $5B+ in marketing for OpenAI is actually possible. To put it in perspective, that’s about the combined campaign budget of the Trump and Harris campaigns. I would expect to be seeing a lot more openAI ads than I’m seeing right now. And they would be everywhere .

That probably includes things like bonus for signing up or recommending people, or discounts for new users.

Also, that certainly includes a lot of money for making all of the media and management training and consulting talking about them. Teams to talk about it on social media, agreements to increase its impact on visibility algorithms...

> And they would be everywhere

How are you not seeing LLM companies ads everywhere?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#353

Post by AbstractH24 »

cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

Its easy to identify the problem its hard to time it or optimize for it.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#354

Post by ericmay »

ceejayoz wrote: post #329
ericmay wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most retail investors suffer from significant information asymmetry. We have regulations, in part, to mitigate this fact. I don't disagree - however that's a separate point from the OP's it's all a scam and pump-and-dump sentiments and doesn't detract from any point I've made. > A point you yourself might remember when arguing on the internet. I know it feels great to write things like this but I don't care - my po…

A pump and dump is information asymmetry writ large. It’s how it works! A pump and dump scam doesn’t care if valuation goes down as long as they can exit profitably.

Then just don't buy the pump-and-dump and stick to ETFs.

Already explained things like lockup periods. Investment firms marketing the IPO also do. not. want. IPO prices to crater after the IPO. It makes them look bad, it harms their business, investors will avoid shops that loop them in on what turn out to be obvious scams or whatever. But even if they don't, who cares? They (I) are sophisticated investors. If I make a bad investment I'm an adult with means and I can live with the consequences.

Why didn't I buy the SpaceX IPO? Because I think it's a crappy investment! They tried to pump-and-dump but they sure couldn't catch me. See how easy it is?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#355

Post by jawilson2 »

lenkite wrote: post #347
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

Can someone explain this circular-investing domino ? If Oracle falls, who else would fall ?

I think he's saying that if one company panics or fails, all of the other AI companies will quickly pull out, and it will be a race to not be holding the hot potato at the end when the bubble bursts. Lots of analogies there! This is where we get the phrase "the stock market takes the stairs up and the elevator down". It crashes quickly and hard, and can be triggered by one event.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#356

Post by inigyou »

solumunus wrote: post #340
inigyou wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did you buy and for how much?

You would buy puts. How much to spend is really up to you, but you can definitely get meaningful downside protection for much much less than that.

And what is the cost of full downside protection? It necessarily exceeds the full upside, or else everyone would do it.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#357

Post by quickthrowman »

UltraSane wrote: post #314
quickthrowman wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if the goal is to get you into a sales funnel with a sales exec to juice the contract value. Oracle doesn’t give a single shit about someone spending $500/month

Oracle cares if 10 million people are spending $500 a month

No, they don’t. I’d be surprised if Oracle has more than a few hundred thousand customers. $500 a month does not let the largest department in Oracle (Legal) flex their muscles. Oracle is a law firm that sells software licenses so their lawyers have something to do, they aim for bespoke agreements slanted to their side.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#358

Post by tart-lemonade »

rad-b wrote: post #345
Vexs wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Observationally, for people that /aren't/ using models to code but to just do their white-collar job, claude.ai /is/ AI, now. The entire perspective for how to use AI is through claude skills, claude projects, claude cowork, etc. They've massively won the corp buy-in at the moment I believe.

Fully agree, that’s how I see most of my less technical coworkers reason about using AI. “Is there a Claude skill for that?” is a question I hear multiple times a week. I see a lot of comments (incl 2 sibling comments) are always discussing whether there is a moat on AI. We agree there is no technical moat, there is nothing that Anthropic or any other AI lab could do that wouldn’t be quickly offered by other competit…

People always underestimate the moat that is institutional agility/ossification. There may be no theoretical moat in software, but every time you switch HR or financial systems you find out the hard way just how many integrations have been built (directly or indirectly) around a specific way of thinking about organizational data imposed by the software containing it, all of which require significant rewrites for the new system's conceptualization. The costs of switching add up fast and the risks of delayed payments/paychecks significant, which is how you end up with companies paying $$$ for extended support on discontinued HR and financial software.

It's the same reason companies will pay for GSuite and O365 subscriptions concurrently because a handful of departments refuse to give up their desktop applications and others have Excel-based workflows that do not work in Google Sheets and do not care enough to learn Python or find someone in the company who can write a better system.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#359

Post by ceejayoz »

ericmay wrote: post #354
ceejayoz wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A pump and dump is information asymmetry writ large. It’s how it works! A pump and dump scam doesn’t care if valuation goes down as long as they can exit profitably.

Then just don't buy the pump-and-dump and stick to ETFs. Already explained things like lockup periods. Investment firms marketing the IPO also do. not. want. IPO prices to crater after the IPO. It makes them look bad, it harms their business, investors will avoid shops that loop them in on what turn out to be obvious scams or whatever. But even if they don't, who cares ? They (I) are sophisticated investors. If I mak…

> Then just don't buy the pump-and-dump…

I feel like you're unclear on what information asymmetry means.

This is "just don't get murdered!" style advice.

> Why didn't I buy the SpaceX IPO? Because I think it's a crappy investment! They tried to pump-and-dump but they sure couldn't catch me. See how easy it is?

The naïve retail investors you suggest should buy index funds will be exposed to SpaceX and the other AI companies through them, no?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#360

Post by ceejayoz »

nradov wrote: post #351
ceejayoz wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They don't take responsibility for stock valuation. Nice strawman, but that's not what I said. They can, and do, intervene in things like lying to investors to inflate valuations.

What is the specific lie in this case? I mean something that's factually incorrect, not just optimistic.

> I mean something that's factually incorrect, not just optimistic.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2075291102324641925

At what point does the optimism become a lie?

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